There is a time and place for individual player analysis in the offseason, but I genuinely believe it should take a back seat in any mock drafts since a majority of the league’s decision-makers typically forgo any studious methods to agree with their peers through hand-shaking, hearsay, and archaic jargon — ”We’re not selling jeans here,” Billy Beane once reminded a room full of (MLB) scouts.
The following is my first attempt at connecting the dots in the first round. My final mock draft for grading (I’m single, ladies) will be available the night before Round 1.
1. Raiders – Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza
The draft starts with the second pick.
Could be: Literally no one else
2. Jets – Ohio State EDGE Arvell Reese
New York finished with the league’s lowest pressure rate (15.1%) and 26 sacks (31st) in Year 1 of HC Aaron Glenn’s tenure. The organization’s emphasis on adding to that side of the ball continues through free agency and into Round 1.
Could be: Texas Tech EDGE David Bailey
3. Cardinals – Miami OT Francis Mauigoa
Cardinals GM Monti Ossenfort has historically prioritized athletes at premium positions (per ClevTA’s Draft Trends), and Mauigoa (8.74 Relative Athletic Score) fits that mold. The 20-year-old exclusively played RT, where Arizona has an immediate hole to fill, throughout his collegiate career.
Could be: Texas Tech EDGE David Bailey, Ohio State EDGE Arvell Reese
4. Titans – Texas Tech EDGE David Bailey
Tennessee would love to mirror Robert Saleh’s mentality and begin his tenure with a defensive-minded approach. If both Arvell Reese and Bailey are off the board, Jeremiyah Love is the clear pick by default.
Could be: Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love, Ohio State EDGE Arvell Reese
5. Giants – Ohio State LB Sonny Styles
The Giants could still use a RT to protect Jaxson Dart on the other side of LT Andrew Thomas. If Francis Mauigoa isn’t an option, the best available defensive player is top of mind.
Could be: Miami OT Francis Mauigoa, Ohio State S Caleb Downs
6. Browns – Georgia OT Monroe Freeling
Cleveland GM Andrew Berry has met pre-draft with all three of the organization’s first-round picks during his tenure (Mason Graham, Greg Newsome II, Jedrick Wills), and this selection of Freeling would continue that trend. Keeping Carnell Tate in-state is also a strong possibility.
Could be: Ohio State WR Carnell Tate
7. Commanders – Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love
The Commanders hold this pick, then don’t have another selection until No. 71, potentially moving down if both Sonny Styles and Love are selected before they’re on the clock.
Could be: Ohio State LB Sonny Styles, Miami EDGE Rueben Bain Jr., A(ny) trade down
8. Saints – Ohio State WR Carnell Tate
Second-round QB Tyler Shough shockingly completed 68.6% (sixth) of his passes in nine starts under first-year HC Kellen Moore. Continuing to build around his rookie deal should take precedence at No. 8.
Could be: Arizona State WR Jordyn Tyson, Miami EDGE Rueben Bain Jr.
9. Chiefs – Utah OT Spencer Fano
With Jawaan Taylor out the door, the Chiefs have a gaping hole at RT, where 21-year-old Fano logged virtually every snap over his last two seasons in Utah.
Could be: Miami EDGE Rueben Bain Jr., Georgia OT Monroe Freeling, LSU CB Mansoor Delane
10. Bengals – Ohio State S Caleb Downs
Cincinnati has the best available defensive player in mind after ceding 7.8 yards per attempt (29th) and the league’s third-highest rate of explosive passes.
Could be: Ohio State LB Sonny Styles, Miami EDGE Rueben Bain Jr.
11. Dolphins – Miami EDGE Rueben Bain Jr.
First-year GM Jon-Eric Sullivan could admittedly go in any direction with this pick, given the exodus of blue-chip talent on the roster.
Could be: Anyone, because Miami needs everything
12. Cowboys – LSU CB Mansoor Delane
Free-agent signee Cobie Durant was inked to a one-year deal, but Dallas remains bereft of anyone who causes nightmares in their secondary. Only the Jets permitted a higher touchdown rate through the air last year.
Could be: Miami EDGE Rueben Bain Jr., Tennessee CB Jermod McCoy
13. Rams – USC WR Makai Lemon
Maximizing Matthew Stafford’s final year(s) is a logical goal for L.A. For what it’s worth, 33-year-old Davante Adams can be cut to save $22 million on the books in 2026.
Could be: Arizona State WR Jordyn Tyson, Utah OT Spencer Fano, Alabama OT Kadyn Proctor, Penn State iOL Olaivavega Ioane
14. Ravens – Tennessee CB Jermod McCoy
McCoy missed all of 2025 with a torn ACL, but Baltimore can afford to work him in slowly with veteran CB Marlon Humphrey on the final year of his deal.
Could be: LSU CB Mansoor Delane, Miami EDGE Rueben Bain Jr., Penn State iOL Olaivavega Ioane, Arizona State WR Jordyn Tyson
15. Buccaneers – Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq
Tampa Bay has leaned toward offense (C Graham Barton, WR Emeka Egbuka) with its first-round picks the last two years and continues that trend here with Baker Mayfield preparing for his 10th play-caller in as many seasons.
Could be: Miami EDGE Rueben Bain Jr., Texas A&M EDGE Cashius Howell
16. Jets – Indiana WR Omar Cooper Jr.
Cooper exudes the type of ‘toughness’ HC Aaron Glenn is after, leading this class with a forced missed tackle on 39% of his receptions.
Could be: Arizona State WR Jordyn Tyson, Alabama QB Ty Simpson, Penn State iOL Olaivavega Ioane
17. Lions – Alabama OT Kadyn Proctor
Jahmyr Gibbs was stuffed for 1.5 yards before contact per attempt (31st) in his last six starts for Detroit’s problems in its trenches. There’s no immediate solution (barring the selection of Proctor here) following Taylor Decker’s leave.
Could be: Utah OT Spencer Fano, Clemson OT Blake Miller, Penn State iOL Olaivavega Ioane, Auburn DL Keldric Faulk
18. Vikings – Oregon S Dillon Thieneman
Thieneman logged 58% of his collegiate snaps at free safety, 30% in the box, and 10% at slot (per PFF) — versatility that’s clay for DC Brian Flores.
Could be: Toledo S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, LSU CB Mansoor Delane, Tennessee CB Jermod McCoy
19. Panthers – Arizona State WR Jordyn Tyson
I expect Carolina to eye defensive help, but Tyson falling to this range for medical reasons would force GM Dan Morgan to pull the trigger.
Could be: Auburn DL Keldric Faulk, LSU CB Mansoor Delane, Tennessee CB Jermod McCoy, Clemson CB Avieon Terrell
20. Cowboys – Texas A&M EDGE Cashius Howell
Dallas will undoubtedly chase the ghost of Micah Parsons with one of its first-round picks. Assuming Rueben Bain Jr. is unavailable at No. 12, they’ll stay in-state for this selection.
Could be: Miami EDGE Akheem Mesidor, UCF EDGE Malachi Lawrence, Clemson EDGE T.J. Parker
21. Steelers – Penn State iOL Olaivavega Ioane
Pittsburgh has yet to decide on LT Broderick Jones’ fifth-year option and continues seeking OL help — whether its decision-makers prefer an archetype tackle or interior option (like Ionae) can be debated.
Could be: Clemson OT Blake Miller, Alabama OT Kadyn Proctor, Arizona State OT Max Iheanachor, Alabama QB Ty Simpson
22. Chargers – Auburn DL Keldric Faulk
Veteran EDGE Khalil Mack was brought back on a one-year deal, which allows L.A. to be patient with 20-year-old Faulk.
Could be: Penn State iOL Olaivavega Ioane, Miami EDGE Akheem Mesidor, UCF EDGE Malachi Lawrence
23. Eagles – Clemson OT Blake Miller
GM Howie Roseman will look to (eventually) replace Lane Johnson, who’ll turn 36 in May. Miller could additionally pad for Landon Dickerson’s lengthy injury history.
Could be: Alabama OT Kadyn Proctor, Penn State iOL Olaivavega Ioane, Arizona State WR Jordyn Tyson, Indiana WR Omar Cooper Jr.
24. Browns – Texas A&M WR KC Concepcion
Assuming the Browns pass on WR at No. 6 (and that’s admittedly a questionable assumption), the best available one is the obvious choice here for HC Todd Monken’s first season.
Could be: Arizona State WR Jordyn Tyson, Washington WR Denzel Boston, Clemson OT Blake Miller, Alabama OT Kadyn Proctor, Utah OT Caleb Lomu
25. Bears – Toledo S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren
Chicago added former Seahawks S Coby Bryant in free agency but remains homed in on playmakers across this unit, regardless of their position.
Could be: Texas A&M EDGE Cashius Howell, Miami EDGE Akheem Mesidor, UCF EDGE Malachi Lawrence, Auburn DL Keldric Faulk, Clemson DL Peter Woods
26. Bills – Miami EDGE Akheem Mesidor
Buffalo’s pressure rate collapsed to 26th with Joey Bosa (free agent) off the field. Even with Bradley Chubb acquired, QB disruption is needed.
Could be: UCF EDGE Malachi Lawrence, Toledo S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, Texas A&M WR KC Concepcion, Washington WR Denzel Boston
27. 49ers – UCF EDGE Malachi Lawrence
Nick Bosa is coming off an ACL injury, and San Francisco didn’t prioritize his position in free agency — a signal that first-round help could be on its way.
Could be: Miami EDGE Akheem Mesidor, Alabama OT Kadyn Proctor, Clemson OT Blake Miller, Utah OT Caleb Lomu, Clemson DL Peter Woods
28. Texans – Clemson DL Peter Woods
Houston’s identity continues mirroring HC DeMeco Ryans’.
Could be: Ohio State DT Kadyen McDonald, UCF EDGE Malachi Lawrence, Miami EDGE Akheem Mesidor
29. Chiefs – Tennessee CB Colton Hood
The Chiefs will presumably pivot to Trent McDuffie’s replacement with one of their (two) first-round picks.
Could be: Utah OT Caleb Lomu, Arizona State OT Max Iheanachor
30. Dolphins – Utah OT Caleb Lomu
Good luck figuring this one out.
Could be: Your guess is as good as mine
31. Patriots – Arizona State OT Max Iheanachor
Drake Maye was pressured on 43% of his dropbacks for six sacks in the Super Bowl, proving you can never have enough help in the trenches.
Could be: Utah OT Caleb Lomu
32. Seahawks – San Diego State CB Chris Johnson
Tariq Woolen’s departure to Philly could allow the defending champs to address that need here. Trading back is another possibility.
Could be: Clemson CB Avieon Terrell, Missouri EDGE Zion Young, Notre Dame RB Jadarian Price, A(ny) trade down
Missed the cut: Alabama QB Ty Simpson, Clemson CB Avieon Terrell, Ohio State DT Kayden McDonald, Washington WR Denzel Boston, Missouri EDGE Zion Young, Texas LB Anthony Hill Jr.
