Trades are for betas.
1. Raiders – Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza
The draft starts with the second pick.
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2. Jets – Ohio State EDGE Arvell Reese
New York finished with the league’s lowest pressure rate (15.1%) and 26 sacks (31st) in Year 1 of HC Aaron Glenn’s tenure. The organization’s emphasis on adding to that side of the ball continues through free agency and into Round 1.
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3. Cardinals – Texas Tech EDGE David Bailey
I’m choosing to ignore any last-week smoke pinning Jeremiyah Love here after the Cardinals signed Tyler Allgeier and restructured James Conner‘s contract. General manager Monti Ossenfort has historically prioritized athletes at premium positions (per ClevTA’s Draft Trends), and Bailey (9.69 Relative Athletic Score) fits that mold as the 68th-most athletic EDGE since 1987.
Previously: Miami OT Francis Mauigoa
4. Titans – Ohio State LB Sonny Styles
Tennessee would love to mirror Robert Saleh’s mentality and begin his tenure with a defensive-minded approach. If both Arvell Reese and David Bailey are off the board, Styles is the best defensive player available by default.
Previously: Texas Tech EDGE David Bailey
5. Giants – Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love
I stopped trying to figure out why teams waste early draft capital on RBs years ago because they keep doing it. New York’s preferences with their first pick (my best guess at them, at least) are Sonny Styles > Love > Jordyn Tyson, then addressing their offensive line at No. 10.
Previously: Ohio State LB Sonny Styles
6. Browns – Arizona State WR Jordyn Tyson
Cleveland GM Andrew Berry has met pre-draft with all three of the organization’s first-round picks during his tenure (Mason Graham, Greg Newsome II, Jedrick Wills), and this selection of Tyson would continue that trend. Keeping Carnell Tate in-state is also a strong possibility.
Previously: Georgia OT Monroe Freeling
7. Commanders – Ohio State S Caleb Downs
Washington DC Daronte Jones most recently worked under defensive guru Brian Flores, whose scheme asks the S position to do everything. Carnell Tate is also a wild card here.
Previously: Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love
8. Saints – Ohio State WR Carnell Tate
Second-round QB Tyler Shough shockingly completed 68.6% (sixth) of his passes in nine starts under first-year HC Kellen Moore. Continuing to build around his rookie deal should take precedence at No. 8.
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9. Chiefs – Utah OT Spencer Fano
With Jawaan Taylor out the door, the Chiefs have a gaping hole at RT, where 21-year-old Fano logged virtually every snap over his last two seasons in Utah.
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10. Giants – Miami OT Francis Mauigoa
Mauigoa was pushed down draft boards for reportedly having a (asymptomatic) herniated disc in his back, but the Giants can afford to be patient with him, given Jermaine Eluemunor‘s bridge presence at RT.
Previously: Ohio State S Caleb Downs
11. Dolphins – Miami EDGE Rueben Bain Jr.
First-year GM Jon-Eric Sullivan could admittedly go in any direction with this pick, given the exodus of blue-chip talent on the roster.
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12. Cowboys – LSU CB Mansoor Delane
Free-agent signee Cobie Durant was inked to a one-year deal, but Dallas remains bereft of anyone who causes nightmares in their secondary. Only the Jets permitted a higher touchdown rate through the air last year.
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13. Rams – USC WR Makai Lemon
Maximizing Matthew Stafford’s final year(s) is a logical goal for L.A. For what it’s worth, 33-year-old Davante Adams can be cut to save $22 million on the books next offseason.
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14. Ravens – Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq
Chicago utilized 12 personnel (one RB, two TEs) on 32.6% (sixth) of their plays under Ben Johnson and now-Ravens OC Declan Doyle, potentially looking to replace Isaiah Likely (Giants) on Night 1.
Previously: Tennessee CB Jermod McCoy
15. Buccaneers – Penn State iOL Olaivavega Ioane
Tampa Bay has leaned toward offense (C Graham Barton, WR Emeka Egbuka) with its first-round picks the last two years and continues that trend here with Baker Mayfield preparing for his 10th play-caller in 11 seasons.
Previously: Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq
16. Jets – Indiana WR Omar Cooper Jr.
Cooper exudes the type of ‘toughness’ HC Aaron Glenn is after, leading this class with a forced missed tackle on 39% of his receptions.
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17. Lions – Alabama OT Kadyn Proctor
Jahmyr Gibbs was stuffed for 1.5 yards before contact per attempt (31st) in his last six starts for Detroit’s problems in its trenches. There’s no immediate solution (barring the selection of Proctor here) on the roster following Taylor Decker’s leave.
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18. Vikings – Oregon S Dillon Thieneman
Thieneman logged 58% of his collegiate snaps at free safety, 30% in the box, and 10% at slot (per PFF) — versatility that’s clay for DC Brian Flores.
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19. Panthers – Texas A&M WR KC Concepcion
John Metchie III was Carolina’s only addition who, supposedly, complements Bryce Young. There’s (first-round) help on the way.
Previously: Arizona State WR Jordyn Tyson
20. Cowboys – UCF EDGE Malachi Lawrence
Dallas will undoubtedly chase the ghost of Micah Parsons with one of its first-round picks.
Previously: Texas A&M EDGE Cashius Howell
21. Steelers – Georgia OT Monroe Freeling
Pittsburgh has yet to decide on LT Broderick Jones’ fifth-year option and continues seeking OL help — whether the front office prefers an archetype tackle or interior option (like Ionae if he were to slip) can be debated.
Previously: Penn State iOL Olaivavega Ioane
22. Chargers – Auburn DL Keldric Faulk
Veteran EDGE Khalil Mack was brought back on a one-year deal, which allows L.A. to be patient with 20-year-old Faulk.
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23. Eagles – Clemson OT Blake Miller
GM Howie Roseman will look to (eventually) replace Lane Johnson, who’ll turn 36 in May. Miller’s presence would additionally pad for Landon Dickerson’s lengthy injury history.
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24. Browns – Utah OT Caleb Lomu
Assuming the Browns take one of Jordyn Tyson or Carnell Tate at No. 6, the best available OT will be top of mind at 24.
Previously: Texas A&M WR KC Concepcion
25. Bears – Missouri EDGE Zion Young
Chicago remains homed in on playmakers across this unit, regardless of their position.
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26. Bills – Clemson DL Peter Woods
Buffalo’s pressure rate collapsed to 26th with Joey Bosa (free agent) off the field. Even with Bradley Chubb acquired, QB disruption (and run stuffing) is needed.
Previously: Miami EDGE Akheem Mesidor
27. 49ers – Arizona State OT Max Iheanachor
San Francisco opens its draft with an individual who can immediately compete at LG.
Previously: UCF EDGE Malachi Lawrence
28. Texans – Ohio State DT Kayden McDonald
Houston’s identity continues to mirror HC DeMeco Ryans’, and EVP Nick Caserio has historically preferred blue-blood prospects.
Previously: Clemson DL Peter Woods
29. Chiefs – Clemson EDGE T.J. Parker
The Chiefs could also pivot to Trent McDuffie’s replacement with this pick.
Previously: Tennessee CB Colton Hood
30. Dolphins – Tennessee CB Colton Hood
Good luck figuring this one out.
Previously: Utah OT Caleb Lomu
31. Patriots – Miami EDGE Akheem Mesidor
Patriots spent more time with EDGE rushers than any other position during their pre-draft visits, including interviewing Mesidor at Indy’s Combine.
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32. Seahawks – San Diego State CB Chris Johnson
Tariq Woolen’s departure to Philly could allow the defending champs to address that need here. Trading back is also an option.
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Missed the cut: Alabama QB Ty Simpson, Toledo S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, Texas A&M iOL Chase Bisontis, Clemson CB Avieon Terrell, Texas A&M EDGE Cashius Howell, Washington WR Denzel Boston, Texas LB Anthony Hill Jr.
