In Best Ball, simply picking the right players is not a realistic strategy. We also need to consider the implications of the no-transaction format.
A big part of that is roster construction. In other words, how many players at each position should we draft? It’s a simple question with a complicated answer for a couple reasons.
First, our decisions should be dynamic to our positional strength — which is a function of draft capital. If our QB1 is Patrick Mahomes, he’s very likely to be the quarterback who counts in our lineup an overwhelming majority of weeks. In that scenario, selecting just two QBs (with different bye weeks of course) is correct. But if the first QB we draft is Teddy Bridgewater, then taking a three is correct.
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Second, we need to account for positional volatility. The weekly range of outcomes at wide receiver is wider than at running back, tight end and quarterback. As you’ll see below, wide receivers will be our most-rostered position.
In order to solve the question of positional allocation, we took a data-driven approach. We looked at the last three years’ results, simulating roughly 26,000 teams based on average draft position (ADP) in search of winning roster constructions. The results:
* 12-team leagues, 18-player rosters
* Half-PPR, otherwise standard scoring. No D or K
* Starting lineup: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FLEX
Recommendation: Take 2-3
Analysis: The data shows virtually no difference in cash rate or win rate between teams which selected two vs. three QBs. Taking four QBs was detrimental and is not recommended. We also (unsurprisingly) found that the optimal rounds for QB selection was between Round 7 and 13.
When deciding whether to take two or three QBs, keep draft capital in mind. If you do invest in QB in the first six rounds, we recommend skewing toward 2-QB builds. A 2-QB roster of Dak Prescott and Joe Burrow is correct since Dak is an early-round QB. But a 2-QB roster of Ben Roethlisberger and Ryan Tannehill is not recommended as they are both late-round QBs. We’d want to add a Burrow or Bridgewater type to that for a 3-QB construction.