The “running back dead zone” has become a commonly used term in the fantasy — and particularly the best ball — community. Basically, running backs in Rounds 3-6 have historically underperformed ADP, while WRs in that range have flourished. For years, you could have drafted a pretty good team simply by closing your eyes and picking WRs in those rounds, grabbing your RBs either before the dead zone in Rounds 1-2 or after it in Round 7+. We theorize this is because WRs in these rounds are typically fairly talented, while the RBs that go here are often middling talents who simply happen to project for a big workload.
On best ball platforms like Underdog Fantasy, the market has adjusted aggressively. We don’t expect that trend to carry over to home leagues, which tend to skew RB-heavier. With that in mind, we typically recommend drafting other positions in these rounds, but maybe one falls well past ADP or you can’t stomach drafting another WR (if you start WR-WR in the first two rounds, for example). Today, we’ll overview the running backs in the “dead zone” one at a time so you know what you’re getting when you draft them. Rounds 3-6 as the boundaries of the dead zone is more of a loose guideline than a strict rule. For the sake of simplicity, we’ll go through the same RBs recently discussed on the ETR podcast.
TRAVIS ETIENNE
The Jaguars have spent multiple offseasons indicating a desire to ease Etienne’s workload. Each time, they have given up and loaded up Etienne’s plate. It’s a similar story this year with Doug Pederson saying using Etienne as a workhorse is “not the recipe” he prefers and hyping up second-year man Tank Bigsby. Bigsby was unplayable most of his rookie year due to drops and general inconsistency, but perhaps another offseason of development makes him a viable secondary option. We anticipate fewer carries for Etienne in 2024 given how badly the staff wants to lighten his load, but he’s still an explosive unquestioned lead back on a good offense.
ISIAH PACHECO
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