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Rest of Season Top 150

Looking for up-to-date rankings for season-long fantasy trades or waiver wire adds? Our staff ranks the Rest of Season Top 150 each week to give subscribers a sense of season-long player values. Click here to view our current rankings.

 

NOTABLE INACTIVES

UPDATE 4:35PM ET: Chase Edmonds (ankle) was not activated off IR and will miss Monday night’s matchup. In the previous three games with Edmonds out, Conner has handled 78.5% of the Cardinals backfield rushing attempts, including 90% of the RZ attempts and 100% of carries inside the 5-yard line. During that span, he’s added a modest 13.6% target share and is in no danger of losing pass-down work. He immediately vaults into top play consideration with the sub-$10k price tag. Eno Benjamin ($2600) was already priced up in anticipation of Edmond’s absence. Handling just 21.5% of the backfield rushing attempts he’s a deep, large-field tournament dart throw at best. 

Tyler Higbee (COVID-19) will miss Monday night’s game. That leaves some combination of Kendall Blanton ($400) and Brycen Hopkins ($200) to fill the void. To this point, Blanton has been Higbee’s preferred back up leading the duo in snaps (38 to 14), targets (3 to 0) and routes run (12 to 3). While exact target distribution is largely guess work, we’re siding with Blanton.

 

 

SHOWDOWN STRATEGY & TRENDS

We’ve spent the past two seasons gathering a large enough sample to confidently review contest results to identify where we have an edge and how we can improve our overall lineup building process. We recommend reviewing this article to understand macro concepts suited for beating large-field showdown tournaments and this article for thoughts on building unique lineups before the slate locks. There you’ll find our thoughts on proper captain selection, optimal roster construction and some ideas on how to ensure your lineups aren’t duplicated. Like most DFS lineups, the best showdown lineups are created where uniqueness, optimal correlation, and max projected points meet. We’ll continually update this section with the latest showdown strategy and trends as the 2021 season progresses. Below you can review winning lineups from the 2020-21 season to better familiarize yourself with winning roster construction.

 

 

Historical Winning Lineups

Note: ‘Total ownership’ is calculated using each players’ Total Ownership % (Flex+CPT) from the flagship GPP on DraftKings

 

Packers at Bears ($47700 Salary Used)  (191.66% Total Ownership): Captain Allen Robinson, Aaron Rodgers, Tarik Cohen, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jimmy Graham, Packers DST – Lineup entered (3) times

Steelers at Patriots ($46100) (223.0%): Captain Tom Brady, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Julian Edelman, Phillip Dorsett, Stephen Gostkowski, Rex Burkhead – (1)

Texans at Saints ($49900) (244.79%): Captain DeAndre Hopkins, Deshaun Watson, Michael Thomas, Ted Ginn Jr., Kenny Stills, Wil Lutz – (13)

Broncos at Raiders ($49000) (240.32%): Captain Josh Jacobs, Emmanuel Sanders, Courtland Sutton, Tyrell Williams, Darren Waller, Brandon McManus – (1)

Buccaneers at Panthers ($48500) (225.70%): Captain Chris Godwin, Cam Newton, Curtis Samuel, D.J. Moore, Greg Olsen, Joey Slye – (1)

Eagles at Falcons ($49300) (253.86%): Captain Julio Jones, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley, Nelson Agholor, Mack Hollins

Browns at Jets ($48300) (237.27%): Captain Odell Beckham Jr., Nick Chubb, Le’Veon Bell, Browns DST, Austin Seibert, D’ernest Johnson – (4)

Titans at Jaguars ($48600) (258.3%): Captain Marcus Mariota, Leonard Fournette, Gardner Minshew, D.J. Chark Jr., Jaguars DST, Adam Humphries – (1)

Rams at Browns ($49700) (238.92%): Captain Cooper Kupp, Jared Goff, Brandin Cooks, Nick Chubb, Browns DST, Greg Zuerlein – 

Bears at Redskins ($50000) (235.64%): Captain Mitchell Trubisky, Case Keenum, Terry McLaurin, Bears DST, Paul Richardson Jr., Taylor Gabriel – (11)

Eagles at Packers ($47300) (245.93%): Captain Jordan Howard, Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Carson Wentz, Jimmy Graham, Geronimo Allison – (4)

Cowboys at Saints ($47800) (231.88%): Captain Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys DST, Wil Lutz, Saints DST – (3)

Bengals at Steelers ($48700) (198.22%): Captain James Conner, Mason Rudolph, Joe Mixon, Diontae Johnson, Steelers DST, Jaylen Samuels – (1)

Rams at Seahawks ($50000) (273.06%): Captain Cooper Kupp, Chris Carson, Gerald Everett, Jared Goff, Russell Wilson, Greg Zuerlein – (748)

Colts at Chiefs ($47200) (241.73%): Captain Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Jacoby Brissett, Marlon Mack, Colts DST, Byron Pringle – (1)

Browns at 49ers ($46400) (239.74%): Captain Matt Breida, Jarvis Landry, Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Tevin Coleman, 49ers DST – (4)

Giants at Patriots ($46700) (322.95%): Captain Patriots DST, Tom Brady, Julian Edelman, Golden Tate, James White, Brandon Bolden – (53)

Steelers at Chargers ($44700) (198.69%): Captain James Conner, Philip Rivers, Hunter Henry, Mike Williams, Benny Snell Jr., Steelers DST – (1)

Lions at Packers ($49800) (265.43%): Captain Matt Prater, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Kenny Golladay, Kerryon Johnson, Jamaal Williams  – (23)

Chiefs at Broncos ($47000) (225.37%): Captain Chief DST, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Emmanuel Sanders, Courtland Sutton, Royce Freeman – (1)

Eagles at Cowboys ($46300) (231.89%): Captain Ezekiel Elliott, Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Cowboys DST, Dallas Goedert, Brett Maher – (4)

Patriots at Jets ($48800) (242.5%): Captain Patriots DST, Julian Edelman, Sony Michel, James White, Phillip Dorsett, Demaryius Thomas – (73)

Redskins at Vikings ($49900) (262.92%): Captain Dalvin Cook, Stefon Diggs, Vikings DST, Adrian Peterson, Dan Bailey, Dustin Hopkins – (343)

Packers at Chiefs ($49600) (244.78%): Captain Aaron Jones, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Moore, Jamaal Williams, Damien Williams, Mecole Hardman – (2)

Dolphins at Steelers ($49700) (259.67%): Captain JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Conner, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Diontae Johnson, Allen Hurns, Chris Boswell – (8) 

49ers at Cardinals ($48800) (252.12%): Captain Kenyan Drake, Jimmy Garoppolo, Kyler Murray, George Kittle, Emmanuel Sanders, Andy Isabella – (2)

Patriots at Ravens ($49600) (236.43%): Captain Julian Edelman, Lamar Jackson, James White, Mark Ingram III, Mohamed Sanu, Nick Boyle – (1)

Cowboys at Giants ($48200) (215.3%): Captain Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Daniel Jones, Cowboys DST, Jason Witten, Brett Maher – (3)

Chargers at Raiders ($49600) (284.1%): Captain Melvin Gordon III, Philip Rivers, Josh Jacobs, Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Raiders DST – (12)

Vikings at Cowboys ($49600) (215.38%): Captain Randall Cobb, Dalvin Cook, Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Kyle Rudolph, Irv Smith Jr. – (3)

Seahawks at 49ers ($49900) (240.23%): Captain Chris Carson, Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers DST, Deebo Samuel, Jacob Hollister – (24)

Steelers at Browns ($49100) (219.24%): Captain Baker Mayfield, Jaylen Samuels, Mason Rudolph, Jarvis Landry, Kareem Hunt, Browns DST – (2)

Bears at Rams ($49800) (290.15%): Captain Todd Gurley II, Cooper Kupp, Mitchell Trubisky, Taylor Gabriel, Rams DST, Tarik Cohen – (59)

Chiefs at Chargers ($49500) (182.25%): Captain Austin Ekeler, Travis Kelce, Keenan Allen, Philip Rivers, Hunter Henry, LeSean McCoy – (14)

Colts at Texans ($49900) (258.29%): Captain DeAndre Hopkins, Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller, Jonathan Williams, Eric Ebron, Ka’imi Fairbairn – (144)

Packers at 49ers ($46200) (217.84%): Captain George Kittle, Jimmy Garoppolo, Davante Adams, Jamaal Williams, Raheem Mostert, Chase McLaughlin – (1)

Ravens at Rams ($49800) (196.98%): Captain Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram II, Marquise Brown, Robert Woods, Willie Snead IV, Tyler Higbee – (15)

Saints at Falcons: Captain Matt Ryan, Saints DST, Russell Gage, Alvin Kamara, Wil Lutz, Calvin Ridley – (1)

Patriots at Texans ($49400) (256.39%): Captain Duke Johnson, Tom Brady, Deshaun Watson, Julian Edelman, James White, Kenny Stills – (74)

Vikings at Seahawks ($49700) (251.83%): Captain Rashaad Penny, Russell Wilson, Dalvin Cook, Chris Carson, Kirk Cousins, David Moore – (22)

Cowboys at Bears ($49400) (232.33%): Captain Mitchell Trubisky, Ezekiel Elliott, Allen Robinson II, Michael Gallup, Anthony Miller, J.P. Holtz – (2)

Giants at Eagles ($47000) (200.3%): Captain Darius Slayton, Carson Wentz, Zach Ertz, Eli Manning, Sterling Shepard, Boston Scott – (1)

Jets at Ravens ($49300) (212.82%): Captain Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram II, Mark Andrews, Jamison Crowder, Seth Roberts, Miles Boykin – (15)

Bills at Steelers ($47100) (262.26%): Captain Bills DST, Josh Allen, James Conner, John Brown, James Washington, Nick Vannett – (4) 

Colts at Saints ($47500) (248.77%): Captain Michael Thomas, Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Wil Lutz, Taysom Hill, Jordan Wilkins – (1)

Rams at 49ers ($49600) (241.43%): Captain Tyler Higbee, Jared Goff, George Kittle, Robert Woods, Deebo Samuel, Brandin Cooks – (4)

Chiefs at Bears ($49400) (252.12%): Captain Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Allen Robinson, Damien Williams, Harrison Butker, Javon Wims – (7)

Packers at Vikings ($47600) (202.83%): Captain Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Packers DST, Mason Crosby, Ameer Abdullah

49ers at Seahawks ($49900) (198.36%): Captain Deebo Samuel, Russell Wilson, Raheem Mostert, D.K. Metcalf, Travis Homer, Kyle Juszczyk

Titans at Patriots ($49000) (218.14%): Captain Derrick Henry, Julian Edelman, James White, Rex Burkhead, Titans DST, Nick Folk – (1)

Seahawks at Eagles ($46400) (225.92%): Captain D.K. Metcalf, Russell Wilson, Dallas Goedert, Marshawn Lynch, Jake Elliot, Seahawks DST

Titans at Ravens ($50000) (225.02%): Captain Marquise Brown, Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Ryan Tannehill, Hayden Hurst, Kalif Raymond – (9)

Seahawks at Packers ($49800) (240.48%): Captain Davante Adams, Russell Wilson, Aaron Jones, Tyler Lockett, Jason Myers, Luke Willson – (3)

Packers at 49ers ($49600) (257.82%): Captain Raheem Mostert, Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, 49ers DST, Robbie Gould – (30)

2020:

Texans at Chiefs ($49600) (205.03%): Captain Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller V, David Johnson, Sammy Watkins, Jordan Akins- (36)

Cowboys at Rams ($49200) (242.03%): Captain Malcom Brown, Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, Robert Woods, Sam Sloman – (2)

Steelers at Giants ($49600) (282.00%): Captain Darius Slayton, Saquon Barkley, Ben Roethlisberger, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Daniel Jones, Benny Snell – (16)

Titans at Broncos ($47000) (268.48%): Captain Corey Davis, Derrick Henry, Ryan Tannehill, Melvin Gordon III, Noah Fant, Adam Humphries – (1)

Bengals at Browns ($49800) (284.59%): Captain Nick Chubb, Joe Burrow, Odell Beckham, Kareem Hunt, Tyler Boyd, C.J. Uzomah – (248)

Patriots at Seahawks ($49200) (249.63%): Captain Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry, Damiere Byrd, David Moore – (37)

Saints at Raiders ($49500) (249.99%): Captain Alvin Kamara, Drew Brees, Darren Waller, Daniel Carlson, Jalen Richard – (23)

Dolphins at Jaguars ($48300) (237.04%): Captain James Robinson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, DeVante Parker, Myles Gaskin, Preston Williams, Dolphins DST – (2)

Packers at Saints ($48300) (257.44%): Captain Alvin Kamara, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan, Marcedes Lewis – (2)

Chiefs at Ravens ($50000) (213.05%): Captain Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Mecole Hardman, Devin Duvernay – (71)

Broncos at Jets ($49300) (242.83%): Captain Melvin Gordon III, Sam Darnold, Jamison Crowder, Tim Patrick, Brandon McManus, Sam Ficken – (46)

Eagles at 49ers ($49900) (255.58%): Captain George Kittle, Carson Wentz, Jerick McKinnon, Brandon Aiyuk, Greg Ward, Eagles DST – (1)

Falcons at Packers ($45600) (235.72%): Captain Aaron Jones, Aaron Rodgers, Todd Gurley II, Robert Tonyan, Jamaal Williams, Olamide Zaccheus – (1)

Buccaneers at Bears ($49900) (260.24%): Captain Ronald Jones, Allen Robinson, David Montgomery, Mike Evans, Jimmy Graham, Ryan Succop – (179)

Vikings at Seahawks ($48500) (237.22%): Captain Adam Thielen, Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, Chris Carson, Alexander Mattison, Irv Smith – (8)

Chargers at Saints ($49700) (292.49%): Captain Mike Williams, Alvin Kamara, Drew Brees, Justin Herbert, Emmanuel Sanders, Wil Lutz – (157)

Bills at Titans ($48700) (205.34%): Captain Ryan Tannehill, Stefon Diggs, A.J. Brown, Jonnu Smith, Cole Beasley, T.J. Yeldon – (7)

Rams at 49ers ($49800) (238.15%): Captain George Kittle, Jared Goff, Jimmy Garoppolo, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Josh Reynolds – (42)

Chiefs at Bills ($49600) (220.4%): Captain Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Stefon Diggs, Demarcus Robinson, Darrel Williams (11)

Cardinals at Cowboys ($49300) (217.74%): Captain Kenyan Drake, Kyler Murray, Andy Dalton, Amari Cooper, Christian Kirk, Cardinals – (10)

Giants at Eagles ($47600) (234.85%): Captain Carson Wentz, Daniel Jones, Boston Scott, Sterling Shepard, Greg Ward, Wayne Gallman – (2)

Falcons at Panthers ($49700) (227.65%): Captain Curtis Samuel, Matt Ryan, Teddy Bridgewater, Julio Jones, Hayden Hurst, Younghoe Koo – (52)

Cowboys at Eagles ($46900) (296.95%): Captain Eagles DST, Carson Wentz, Travis Fulgham, Boston Scott, Jalen Reagor, Michael Gallup – (25)

Buccaneers at Giants ($49800) (254.73%): Captain Ryan Succop, Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Daniel Jones, Sterling Shepard, Wayne Gallman

Packers at 49ers ($44300) (299.05%): Captain Richie James, Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, Nick Mullens, Jerick McKinnon, Marquez Valdes-Scantling – (2)

Saints at Buccaneers ($49400) (181.81%): Captain Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Mike Evans, Taysom Hill, Emmanuel Sanders, Saints – (2)

Patriots at Jets ($48700) (249.24%): Captain Jakobi Meyers, Cam Newton, Joe Flacco, Rex Burkhead, Breshad Perriman, Nick Folk – (25)

Colts at Titans ($46100) (230.92%): Captain Nyheim Hines, Derrick Henry, Philip Rivers, Corey Davis, Michael Pittman, Rodrigo Blankenship – (2)

Ravens at Patriots ($49500) (276.17%): Captain Willie Snead IV, Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, Jakobi Meyers, Rex Burkhead, Gus Edwards – (123)

Vikings at Bears ($44500) (165.67%): Captain Justin Jefferson, Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, Cordarrelle Patterson, Bears, Vikings – (2)

Seahawks at Cardinals ($48500) (210.92%): Captain Tyler Lockett, Kyler Murray, Kenyan Drake, Chase Edmonds, Carlos Hyde, Larry Fitzgerald – (2)

Chiefs at Raiders ($49900) (226.19%): Captain Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darren Waller, Nelson Agholor, Le’Veon Bell – (15)

Rams at Buccaneers ($49300) (219.43%): Captain Robert Woods, Jared Goff, Cooper Kupp, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Van Jefferson – (6)

Bears at Packers ($48000) (228.09%): Captain David Montgomery, Aaron Rodgers, Allen Robinson II, Robert Tonyan, Packers, Jamaal Williams – (2)

Seahawks at Eagles ($48700) (194.13%): Captain DK Metcalf, Carson Wentz, Chris Carson, Dallas Goedert, Jason Myers, Richard Rodgers – (1)

Ravens at Steelers ($49300) (234.65%): Captain Marquise Brown, Ben Roethlisberger, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Benny Snell, Steelers DST, Ravens DST – (6)

Broncos at Chiefs ($48200) (266.04%): Captain Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes, Melvin Gordon III, Tim Patrick, Harrison Butker, Le’Veon Bell – (9)

Bills at 49ers ($50000) (283.37%): Captain Cole Beasley, Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Nick Mullens, Brandon Aiyuk, Isaiah McKenzie – (209)

Patriots at Rams ($44600) (279.85%): Captain Cam Akers, Jared Goff, Cooper Kupp, Jakobi Meyers, Rams, Damiere Byrd – (2)

Steelers at Bills ($48800) (233.91%): Captain Stefon Diggs, Josh Allen, Ben Roethlisberger, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Bills, Jaylen Samuels – (2)

Ravens at Browns ($50000) (273.6%): Captain Kareem Hunt, Lamar Jackson, Nick Chubb, Baker Mayfield, Rashard Higgins, David Njoku – (109)

Chargers at Raiders ($48500) (227.86%): Captain Justin Herbert, Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs, Hunter Henry, Tyron Johnson, Devontae Booker – (1)

Browns at Giants ($49100) (267.22%): Captain Austin Hooper, Nick Chubb, Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry, Darius Slayton, Evan Engram – (9)

Steelers at Bengals ($48500) (224.26%): Captain Benny Snell, Ben Roethlisberger, Diontae Johnson, Ryan Finley, Giovani Bernard, Austin Seibert – (1)

Vikings at Saints ($49100) (226.75%): Captain Alvin Kamara, Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, Irv Smith, Latavius Murray, Wil Lutz – (28)

Titans at Packers ($49700) (243.92%): Captain Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill, Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Equanimeous St. Brown – (25)

Bills at Patriots ($49700) (264.62%): Captain Stefon Diggs, Josh Allen, Cam Newton, Zack Moss, Tyler Bass, Lee Smith – (11)

Football Team at Eagles ($49700) (329.17%): Captain Jalen Hurts, Terry McLaurin, Alex Smith, Logan Thomas, Dustin Hopkins, Boston Scott – (180)

Buccaneers at Football Team ($48400) (235.64%): Captain Taylor Heinicke, Tom Brady, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette, Cam Sims – (1)

2021:

Cowboys at Buccaneers ($49300) (258.69%): Captain Rob Gronkowski, Dak Prescott, Chris Godwin, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Antonio Brown – (39)

Bears at Rams ($46600) ($46600) (263.26%): Captain Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, David Montgomery, Darrell Henderson Jr., Matt Gay, Van Jefferson Jr. – (4)

Ravens at Raiders ($48400) (259.6%): Captain Darren Waller, Derek Carr, Marquise Brown, Ty’Son Williams, Sammy Watkins, Hunter Renfrow – (14)

Giants at Football Team ($47900) (249.77%): Captain Terry McLaurin, Daniel Jones, Taylor Heinicke, Sterling Shepard, Graham Gano – (13)

Chiefs at Ravens ($49600) (228.63%): Captain Byron Pringle, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Travis Kelce, Marquise Brown, Demarcus Robinson – (6)

Lions at Packers ($50000) (230.14%): Captain Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, Robert Tonyan, Quintez Cephus, Trinity Benson – (231)

Panthers at Texans ($50000) (216.97%): Captain Sam Darnold, DJ Moore, Brandin Cooks, Davis Mills, Chuba Hubbard, Anthony Miller – (29)

Eagles at Cowboys ($48000) (245.88%): Captain Ezekiel Elliott, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Jalen Reagor, Dalton Schultz, Zach Ertz – (6)

Buccaneers at Patriots ($48900) (192.51%): Captain Mac Jones, Mike Evans, Jakobi Meyers, Leonard Fournette, Hunter Henry, Ryan Succop – (5)

Raiders at Chargers ($47800) (242.63%): Captain Austin Ekeler, Justin Herbert, Derek Carr, Hunter Renfrow, Jared Cook, Donald Parham Jr. – (4)

Rams at Seahawks ($48800) (234.19%): Captain Robert Woods, Matthew Stafford, DK Metcalf, Darrell Henderson Jr., Tyler Higbee, Sony Michel – (13)

Buccaneers at Eagles ($48700) (330.02%): Captain Leonard Fournette, Tom Brady, Jalen Hurts, Antonio Brown, Zach Ertz, O.J. Howard – (306)

Seahawks at Steelers ($49800) (253.93%): Captain Alex Collins, Najee Harris, Ben Roethlisberger, Diontae Johnson, Chris Boswell, Pat Freiermuth – (45)

Bills at Titans ($48500) (262.7%): Captain Derrick Henry, Josh Allen, Cole Beasley, Tyler Bass, Tommy Sweeney – (6)

Broncos at Browns ($49900) (288.36%): Captain D’Ernest Johnson, Teddy Bridgewater, Case Keenum, Noah Fant, Melvin Gordon III, Javonte Williams – (153)

Colts at 49ers ($45600) (264.01%): Captain Michael Pittman Jr., Carson Wentz, Deebo Samuel, Eli Mitchell, Mo Allie-Cox, Colts – (49)

Packers at Cardinals ($49500) (272.32%): Captain Aaron Jones, Aaron Rodgers, James Conner, Chase Edmonds, Zach Ertz, Randall Cobb – (49)

Cowboys at Vikings ($49500) (230.69%): Captain Amari Cooper, Kirk Cousins, CeeDee Lamb, Adam Thielen, Cooper Rush, Cedrick Wilson – (5)

Giants at Chiefs ($49900) (212.57%): Captain Tyreek Hill, Daniel Jones, Darrel Williams, Devontae Booker, Mecole Hardman, John Ross III – (11)

Jets at Colts ($50000) (187.18%): Captain Jonathan Taylor, Carson Wentz, Elijah Moore, Josh Johnson, Nyheim Hines, Tyler Kroft – (1)

Titans at Rams ($48800) (200.46%): Captain Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford, Robert Woods, Geoff Swaim, Sony Michel, Titans – (1)

Bears at Steelers ($49300) (236.12%): Captain Pat Freiermuth, Najee Harris, Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, Chris Boswell – (24)

Ravens at Dolphins ($46700) (226.65%): Captain Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Jaylen Waddle, Rashod Bateman, Dolphins, Albert Wilson – (1)

Chiefs at Raiders ($50000) (205.61%): Captain Darrel Williams, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Hunter Renfrow, Bryan Edwards, Byron Pringle – (13)

Rams at 49ers ($49700) (219.04%): Captain Deebo Samuel, Cooper Kupp, Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Robbie Gould, 49ers – (29)

Patriots at Falcons ($39600) (190.57%): Captain Patriots DST, Mac Jones, Rhamondre Stevenson, Olamide Zaccheaus, Nelson Agholor, Nick Folk – (4)

Steelers at Chargers ($49600) (247.76%): Captain Austin Ekeler, Justin Herbert, Diontae Johnson, Mike Williams, Chris Boswell, Donald Parham Jr. – (53)

Giants at Buccaneers ($49800) (246.29%): Captain Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Saquon Barkley, Ryan Succop, Ronald Jones II – (36)

 

 

 

 

When we review winning lineups, we can think backwards and determine what game-script ideas and correlations went into constructing each roster. In the Week 1 2020 MNF matchup between the Titans and Broncos, pricing was incredibly soft and it was easy to lock in top projected player Derrick Henry into the captain spot without making additional sacrifices to the rest of our lineup. The field followed suit, owning Henry in the captain spot at a 31.4% rate. At elevated ownership, it made sense to look for paths where Henry could be outscored by another option; one such path was to assume the Titans had success through the air. Corey Davis at captain immediately provided leverage off of Henry and fellow WR A.J. Brown, who was also highly owned. The winning lineup paired Davis with QB Ryan Tannehill and included Henry in the flex, locking up a majority of the team’s offensive production. Davis’ cheap $9000 captain salary and lack of high-priced options from the Broncos side kept the lineup’s total salary ($47000) well below the cap without sacrificing too many projected points and ensured it wouldn’t be duplicated despite high cumulative ownership (268.48%). These are the types of decisions we have to think through during showdown lineup construction in an effort to maximize correlation and uniqueness.

 

TEAM-SPECIFIC ANALYSIS & NOTABLE PRICE CONSIDERATIONS

 

 

Week 14 closes with a clash of NFC West titans, as the Rams head to Arizona to take on the Cardinals as 2-point road underdogs in a game boasting a mouth-watering 51-point total. Rams HC Sean McVay remains pass-heavy, posting the league’s fifth-highest PROE (+4.2%) this season, dropping back at the sixth-highest rate (62%) while games are within one score. Largely unaffected by game script, McVay’s pass rate climbs to a very nice 69% in come-from-behind efforts and is still above league average (54%) when playing with a lead. Presenting as somewhat of a run-funnel, Arizona’s defense is facing the league’s second-fewest pass attempts (51%) while games are within one score, boasting a third-ranked Pass DVOA compared to a 15th-ranked Rush DVOA. On the other side, Cardinals HC Kliff Kingsbury has shown more play-calling balance, ranking 21st in situation-neutral pass rate (55%) while checking in with the league’s eighth-highest PROE (+0.6%), suggesting the run-heavy nature of their game plan can largely be attributed to a healthy dose of positive game script. 

 

Cooper Kupp ($12000) has earned his slate-high price tag as 2021’s undisputed top overall fantasy wide receiver. Kupp’s usage is unmatched, credited with the NFL’s second-highest target share (31.0%) to go along with a 32.0% Air Yards share and a league-leading 24 RZ targets. Almost as impressive as drawing double-digit targets in 11-of-12 games, Kupp is converting 73.6% of those targets into receptions, resulting in Los Angeles’ best floor/ceiling combo. Coming out of the team’s Week 11 bye, Van Jefferson ($8000) and Odell Beckham ($6200) have cemented themselves as the clear No. 2 and No. 3 pass-catching threats behind Kupp. Over their past two games, Jefferson leads the pair in target share (22.4% to 19.7%) while Beckham holds a slight advantage in Air Yards share (28.9% to 27.3%) on a juicy 15.6 aDOT. Being utilized as a deep threat in McVay’s offense, 35.3% of Beckham’s targets have come 20-plus-yards downfield. Though he faces a Cardinals secondary that’s held opponents to the league’s second-fewest explosive pass plays (24), Beckham should get a few opportunities to break Monday night’s slate. I like taking chances that he and Matthew Stafford are able to connect when ownership is unlikely to follow. It should be noted that Jefferson has all but slid into the role formerly manned by Robert Woods, splitting time between the slot (54.4%) and perimeter (44.3%), drawing at least eight targets in consecutive games. Given the strength at the top of the slate, Jefferson’s $8K price tag is difficult to fit and should be coupled with low ownership. Sandwiched between a handful of similarly priced Cardinals, Tyler Higbee ($5000) may get lost Monday night despite playing on 96.6% of snaps and running a route on 94.4% of dropbacks. Unlikely to break slates with his modest 14.1% target share, we’re betting on touchdowns; ranking third on the team in EZ targets (7), it’s a bet I’m willing to make if he comes in with insignificant ownership. When a starting running back is ruled out, the role for his backup is often better than the one previously occupied by the starter. That’s certainly the case for Sony Michel ($7200) sans Darrell Henderson (COVID-19) once again. Installed as the Week 13 starter, Michel handled 92.3% of the backfield carries, including 100% of RZ attempts and both attempts inside the 5-yard line. He didn’t stop there, running a route on 80% of Stafford dropbacks, earning a modest 10.8% target share while playing on 86% of long down and distance + 100% of two-minute snaps, as noted by PFF’s Dwain McFarland. While not as soft as last week’s matchup against Jacksonville, Michel is once again set up to feast facing a Cardinals defense that’s allowing the league’s third-highest yards per attempt (4.6) and second-most running back receptions per game (7.4). As Silva noted in matchups, 9-of-12 quarterbacks to face Arizona have netted fantasy finishes of QB15 or worse, while the Cards have yielded an NFC-low 6.4 yards per pass attempt. Likely on the outside looking in of my CPT player pool, I’ll reserve using Matthew Stafford ($10400) at FLEX when paired with Rams pass catchers.

 

UPDATE 4:35PM ET: Tyler Higbee (COVID-19) will miss Monday night’s game. That leaves some combination of Kendall Blanton ($400) and Brycen Hopkins ($200) to fill the void. To this point, Blanton has been Higbee’s preferred back up leading the duo in snaps (38 to 14), targets (3 to 0) and routes run (12 to 3). While exact target distribution is largely guess work, we’re siding with Blanton.

 

Out of the team’s Week 12 bye, DeAndre Hopkins ($9800) returned to action after a four-week layoff, playing on 73.6% of snaps, running a route on 81.0% of dropbacks. In Arizona’s extremely even target distribution, Hopkins was targeted just twice but managed to find the end zone. Even prior to injury, Hopkins’ target share (20.0%) was down from last year, as five Cardinal pass catchers had a target share north of 14%. Removed from cash game consideration, I haven’t written off Hopkins in tournaments, still willing to bet on talent despite a nine-week sample that suggests the ceiling is limited. Utilizing 4-WR sets at the league’s highest rate, Arizona has a trio of wide receivers behind Hopkins who were immediately priced down following his return. In Weeks 1-8 alongside Hopkins, Christian Kirk ($5600) played inside, running 85.5% of his routes from the slot, earning a 17.1% target share to go along with a 27.1% Air Yards share and five EZ targets. Unlikely to face much Jalen Ramsey coverage in the slot, Kirk looks like the top Cardinals value pass catcher. Priced $800 cheaper, A.J. Green ($4800) posted a near-identical target share (17.6%) and Air Yards share (26.3%) but rates below Kirk due to a lower catch rate and more difficult matchup with Los Angeles’ perimeter defensive backs. Rondale Moore ($2000) rounds out the group having posted a 14.7% target share through the first eight weeks as an absolute YAC monster, turning 87 air yards into 421 receiving yards. Simply mispriced $3600 below his 2021 showdown average, Moore is the slate’s most obvious source of value, a cash game option, and is likely to carry outsized ownership in large-field tournaments. How I handle him there will largely be dictated by the players he’s surrounded by. In lineups that already carry high total ownership, I’ll look elsewhere. Since joining the Cardinals ahead of Week 7, Zach Ertz ($5400) has seen a 17.8% target share to go along with a 17.6% Air Yards share. Sandwiched between Green and Kirk, I’m not going out of my way to roster Ertz if he’s coming with ownership given Silva’s note in matchups about the likelihood he runs into Ramsey coverage more so than any other Cardinals pass catcher. Considered a game-time decision, Chase Edmonds’ ($4600) (ankle) status could drastically shift Monday night’s slate. Currently projected IN, we see James Conner ($9800) once again handling a bulk of the Cardinals’ rushing attempts, ceding some work to Edmonds on the ground while Arizona’s preferred pass-catching back takes over a majority of the receiving workload. Approaching $10K, if Edmonds is in, Conner is entirely out of cash game consideration and largely reduced to ‘pay up to be contrarian’ large-field tournament viability only. Edmonds on the other hand looks like a superior value, particularly on PPR-friendly sites like DraftKings. Kyler Murray ($11200) showed no ill effects of the ankle injury that cost him the past month in his Week 13 return, handling 28.6% of the team’s rushing attempts for a vintage 10/59/2 rushing line en route to 30.8 DraftKings points. $800 cheaper than Kupp, Murray is a cash game lock and top CPT target in large-field tournaments. Given the rushing upside, I’ll rotate through a variety of CPT Murray combinations, not setting strict rules to pair him with multiple Arizona pass catchers. 

 

UPDATE 4:35PM ET: Chase Edmonds (ankle) was not activated off IR and will miss Monday night’s matchup. In the previous three games with Edmonds out, Conner has handled 78.5% of the Cardinals backfield rushing attempts, including 90% of the RZ attempts and 100% of carries inside the 5-yard line. During that span, he’s added a modest 13.6% target share and is in no danger of losing pass-down work. He immediately vaults into top play consideration with the sub-$10k price tag. Eno Benjamin ($2600) was already priced up in anticipation of Edmonds’ absence. Handling just 21.5% of the backfield rushing attempts, he’s a deep, large-field tournament dart throw at best.

 

TOP PLAYS

Given the importance of maximizing raw points, correlation, and uniqueness, we’ve grouped our top plays into three categories: top overall plays, top value plays, and top leverage plays. Our top leverage plays are ones where we identify a player that has a higher chance to be a necessary piece of a winning lineup than ownership projections would indicate.

 

Player Category Notes
Kyler Murray Overall Any concerns about Murray’s bum ankle could be put to rest after he rushed for 10/59/2 in Week 13. At home as a 2-point favorite, Murray boasts the slate’s top base + ceiling projection and is $800 cheaper than the next-closest option.
Cooper Kupp Overall Kupp’s volume is unmatched, posting a 31.0% target share to go along with a 32.0% Air Yards share. Seeing double-digit targets in 11-of-12 games, he’s quickly earned Matthew Stafford’s trust.
Matthew Stafford Overall Under center for one of the league’s pass-heaviest offenses, Stafford offers a strong floor in cash games.
Sony Michel Overall The stars are aligning again for Michel with Henderson on the shelf. Handling virtually every available opportunity in the Rams’ backfield, Michel faces a Cardinals rush defense allowing 4.7 YPC, a league high 16% explosive rush rate, and the NFL’s sixth-most receptions (81) to opposing backs.
Matt Prater Value Tonight’s showdown features plenty of offensive firepower but if the Cardinals are going to reach their 27-point implied total, Prater is likely to be involved.
Chase Edmonds Value Edmonds still needs to be activated Monday afternoon, but if he is, we can project him to handle around 25% of the Cardinals’ rushing attempts to go along with a double-digit target share. At $4600, he rates as a strong value.
Christian Kirk Value Running a vast majority of his routes from the slot, Kirk should largely avoid Jalen Ramsey’s blanket coverage. A mid-tier price tag combined with a healthy 17.1% target share and 27.1% Air Yards share makes him a value at $5600. UPDATE: Ramsey has been ruled out along with fellow DB Dont’e Deayon leaving the Rams secondary thin and susceptible to the Cardinals aerial attack.
DeAndre Hopkins Leverage Failing to consistently flash alpha WR1 usage this season, Hopkins’ Monday night outlook is diminished by an underwhelming target projection. Fortunately, that should result in low ownership for those of us willing to bet on one of the league’s most talented receivers.
James Conner Leverage Chase Edmonds (ankle) was not activated off IR and will miss Monday night’s matchup. In the previous three games with Edmonds out, Conner has handled 78.5% of the Cardinals backfield rushing attempts, including 90% of the RZ attempts and 100% of carries inside the 5-yard line. During that span, he’s added a modest 13.6% target share and is in no danger of losing pass-down work. He immediately vaults into top play consideration with the sub-$10k price tag and projects for less ownership than Kupp, Murray and Michel.
Van Jefferson Leverage Paying up to be contrarian, Jefferson’s projection doesn’t separate much from the sub-$6K tier, but operating in the vacated Robert Woods role, he’s seen at least eight targets in back-to-back games.
Mekhi Sargent Dart Throw The only healthy back behind Michel, Sargent saw two carries in Week 13. He’s just $400 above the stone minimum on DraftKings.
Rams D/ST Dart Throw Monday night’s 51-point total combined with offensive appeal on both sides should lead to minimal DST ownership. Los Angeles’ DL benefits from one of Brandon Thorn’s top DL/OL matchups. Aaron Donald, Leonard Floyd, Von Miller, and Co. may wreak havoc in Arizona’s backfield.
Kendall Blanton Dart Throw Higbee’s absence vacates nearly 100% of the Rams’ TE snaps and a projected 14% target share. We expect the $400 Blanton to absorbed most of that role.

 

STACK IDEAS

* CPT Sony Michel, Kyler Murray, Chase Edmonds – On the surface, Arizona looks like a difficult matchup for opposing running backs but they’ve been gashed for 4.7 YPC, allowed the league’s highest explosive rush rate (16%) and given up the sixth-most receptions (81) to the position. Michel comes in to Monday night’s contest projecting to handle virtually every available touch in Los Angeles’ backfield at a $7200 price tag.

* CPT Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford, A.J. Green – A pillar of fantasy consistency, Kupp can finish as the slate’s top overall scorer in a variety of ways. Racking up double-digit targets in 11-of-12 games, DraftKings’ PPR-friendly nature gives him outs even if he doesn’t find the end zone.

* CPT Kyler Murray, Christian Kirk, Van Jefferson – Murray removed any doubt we may have had regarding his ankle after handling 27.5% of Arizona’s rushing attempts in Week 13. Now he gets back his top pass-catching back at home as a 2-point favorite.

* CPT DeAndre Hopkins, Kyler Murray, Odell Beckham – Though his 2021 target share is down, we have a long track record of Hopkins being one of the league’s most dominant receivers. His $9800 price tag is too steep for the math to justify playing him as our Monday night CPT; that should result in minimal large-field tournament ownership. I’m still willing to bet on single-game outlier performances with Nuk when gifted low ownership.

* CPT James Conner, Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson – We’ve seen Kingsbury lean run-heavy when the scoreboard allows and given the COVID-depleted nature of the Rams roster, Arizona is more likely to come out of Monday night’s clash with a W. Always capable of racking up two short-yardage touchdowns, I’d expect Conner to get fed if the Cardinals are in positive script.

 

ROSTER CONSTRUCTION UTILIZATION PROJECTIONS

Understanding how our opponents will construct lineups offers opportunities for leverage in large-field tournaments. These projections use a combination of historical results and slate-specific pricing, ownership, and fantasy-point projections to calculate how often each lineup build will be used. Please note: number of favorites are listed first; number of underdogs are listed second. For example, 1-5 refers to one favorite – five underdogs.

 

Roster Construction Utilization
1-5 0.7%
2-4 24.3%
3-3 50.0%
4-2 22.7%
5-1 2.3%

 

 

PROJECTIONS/OWNERSHIP

 

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LAST UPDATED3/7/2024 21:53:49ET

 

DK TB-DET Showdown Fantasy and Ownership Projections

NameTeamPositionSalaryProjectionCeilingTotal OwnCPT SalaryCPT ProjectionCPT Own
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-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0

 

FD Single Game Projections

NameTeamPositionSalaryProjectionMVP ProjectionCeilingFLEX Value
Lamar JacksonBALQB170000.00.00.00.00.0-20.5
Patrick MahomesKCQB1500020.80.031.20.030.58.1
Isiah PachecoKCRB1400013.60.020.40.023.82.7
Travis KelceKCTE1300014.70.022.00.025.95.8
Rashee RiceKCWR1250013.70.020.60.024.55.4
Zay FlowersBALWR115000.00.00.00.00.0-12.3
Mark AndrewsBALTE110000.00.00.00.00.0-11.5
Gus EdwardsBALRB105000.00.00.00.00.0-10.8
Isaiah LikelyBALTE100000.00.00.00.00.0-10.0
Justin TuckerBALK95000.00.00.00.00.0-9.3
Harrison ButkerKCK95008.30.012.40.013.21.5
Baltimore RavensBALD90000.00.00.00.00.0-8.5
Justice HillBALRB90000.00.00.00.00.0-8.5
Odell Beckham Jr.BALWR85000.00.00.00.00.0-7.8
Kansas City ChiefsKCD85005.60.08.40.012.21.2
Rashod BatemanBALWR80000.00.00.00.00.0-7.0
Nelson AgholorBALWR80000.00.00.00.00.0-7.0
Justin WatsonKCWR75003.90.05.80.010.30.9
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingKCWR75004.30.06.40.010.81.3
Noah GrayKCTE70003.80.05.70.09.51.1
Clyde Edwards-HelaireKCRB70001.90.02.80.05.5-1.8
Kadarius ToneyKCWR65000.00.00.00.00.0-4.8
Mecole Hardman Jr.KCWR65000.30.00.50.01.3-4.0
Dalvin CookBALRB65000.00.00.00.00.0-4.8
Charlie KolarBALTE60000.00.00.00.00.0-4.0
Melvin Gordon IIIBALRB60000.00.00.00.00.0-4.0
Richie James Jr.KCWR60001.00.01.50.03.6-1.7
Blake BellKCTE55000.50.00.70.01.9-2.0
Patrick RicardBALRB55000.00.00.00.00.0-3.3
La'Mical PerineKCRB55000.00.00.00.00.0-3.3
Keaontay IngramKCRB50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Keaton MitchellBALRB50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Cornell PowellKCWR50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Izaiah GathingsKCTE50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Owen WrightBALRB50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Dan ChisenaBALWR50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Matt BushmanKCTE50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Tyler HuntleyBALQB50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Ben MasonBALRB50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Malik CunninghamBALQB50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Sean RyanBALWR50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Chris OladokunKCQB50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Skyy MooreKCWR50000.90.01.30.03.1-0.5
Laquon TreadwellBALWR50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Jerick McKinnonKCRB50003.10.04.60.08.23.1
Gerrit PrinceKCTE50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Josh JohnsonBALQB50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Tylan WallaceBALWR50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Tyler OttBALTE50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
James WinchesterKCTE50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
J.K. DobbinsBALRB50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Justyn RossKCWR50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Deneric PrinceKCRB50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Montrell WashingtonKCWR50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Blaine GabbertKCQB50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Scotty WashingtonBALWR50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Jake FunkDETRB50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Devin DuvernayBALWR50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5
Jody FortsonKCTE50000.00.00.00.00.0-2.5