SHOWDOWN STRATEGY & TRENDS
Finished with the 2020 showdown regular season, we’ve gathered a large enough sample to confidently review contests through the first 17 weeks and identify where we have an edge and how we can improve our overall process. It’s important to keep in mind, that while it’s growing, we’re still working with a relatively small sample. We recommend reviewing this article before building lineups. You’ll find our thoughts on proper captain selection, optimal roster construction and some ideas on how to ensure your lineups are unique. Like most DFS lineups, the best showdown lineups are created where uniqueness + optimal correlation + max projected points meet. Below you can review winning lineups to better familiarize yourself with optimal construction.
DST & Kickers
After being a major talking point in 2019, we’ve seen DSTs and kickers have mostly gone overlooked through Week 17. The average ownership for DSTs in 2019 was 20.69% at an average salary of $4100. During the 2020 season, DST ownership has dropped to just 11.98% at an average salary of $3900. We know from the work Levitan did in the offseason, projecting DST fantasy scoring is not an easy task. If the field continues to underown defenses, there’s an edge in taking an overweight stance in large-field tournaments.
DraftKings finally priced up kickers following a full 2019 season where they consistently projected as the top PT/$ options on any given slate. Now averaging $4000 compared to $3700 in 2019, they no longer project as positive value plays on every slate and thus have carried lower ownership; 22.32% last season compared to just 15.94% through 17 weeks in 2020.