Sleeper Dynasty Market Update presented by Establish The Run
Sleeper has updated it’s Dynasty ADP and we’re here to provide you with a market update and analysis.
Sleeper Dynasty Market Movers
Note: While ADP is most relevant for Dynasty startups, players in an active league should monitor changes for trade considerations. Positional Sleeper ADPs cited are using the average of standard PPR and superflex ADPs for simplification.
RISERS
Trey Sermon (+2.7 in SF, +1.5 in 1QB) – There is some buzz out of Niners camp that Sermon could open the year as the starter in the backfield, playing the old Tevin Coleman role. It is worth noting that this role still came with a sub-50% snap share, as Coleman would wear down opponents early before giving way to the other backs. We are bullish on Sermon growing that role in both the short and long terms, ranking him RB21 (RB27 on Sleeper).
Damien Williams (+18.7 in SF, +23.5 in 1QB) – With Tarik Cohen beginning training camp on the PUP list, it makes sense to see dynasty players gravitating to Williams, who produced at a high level with the Chiefs. Chicago won’t offer that same kind of offensive environment, but Williams could easily slide into the secondary role Cohen has owned (and produced out of) the last few seasons. His Sleeper ADP of RB80 is still catching up to our RB69 rank.
Donovan Peoples-Jones (+27.3 in SF, +7.2 in 1QB) – Still just 22 years old, DPJ is coming off of averaging over 20 yards per reception as a rookie. Granted, that was on just 14 catches, but it portends a larger role for him in Year 2. The Browns lack long-term options at receiver behind the aging Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry. Peoples-Jones is currently Cleveland’s best young WR, and that is worth a flier in the late stages of dynasty drafts. He is our WR87 (WR96 on Sleeper).
FALLERS
Aaron Rodgers (-2.4 in SF, -3.9 in 1QB) – This is likely already reversing course, as Rodgers has now reported to training camp, and is expected to play in 2021 for the Packers. We have adjusted our rankings to reflect this, which you can read more about below.
James Robinson (-2.6 in SF, -2.1 in 1QB) – Robinson was excellent as a rookie, but the Jaguars drafted Travis Etienne in the first round. That has his arrow pointing down, and fantasy players are taking notice. There is some chance that Robinson maintains a large role, with Etienne primarily being a receiver, but we are not banking on it. Robinson is our RB31 (RB26 on Sleeper).
Cam Akers (-35.6 in SF, -30.9 in 1QB) – This is a massive change for a highly-ranked player, but comes as a result of Akers’ season-ending Achilles injury. Losing a year of any player is a value-killer, especially when it is a RB. We already expect RBs to have shorter shelf-lives, and the nature of this injury calls into question how effective Akers may be in 2022 when he comes back. We moved Akers down from RB4 to RB18 as a result of this news (RB21 on Sleeper), and he could slide further down as other situations add clarity.
ETR Value Changes
Moved Davante Adams from WR10 to WR13 (-14 in SF/TE Premium, -9 in 1QB) — Rodgers is back for now, but his future past that appears to be murky — along with Adams’. Green Bay will have the ability to control Adams’ future via the franchise tag, which would leave him playing with Jordan Love should Rodgers leave in 2022. He will be 29 at the end of this season. That makes it difficult to take him ahead of the young, dynamic talents he is now behind. We are far lower on Adams than market, with a Sleeper ADP of WR5.
Moved Jalen Hurts from QB18 to QB24 in SF/TE Premium (-33), QB12 to QB15 in 1QB (-28) — It has become increasingly likely that Hurts is not the long-term QB of this franchise. They have been strongly linked to a potential Deshaun Watson deal, and numerous quotes from head coach Nick Sirianni appear to lack an endorsement of Hurts. This is a bigger risk in superflex, which is indicated by the ranking disparity between formats. His Sleeper ADP of QB10 is a clear avoid.
Moved Parris Campbell from WR92 to WR78 (+32/+42) — The injuries and lack of effectiveness early in Campbell’s career makes him a dog to be a long-term producer in this league. With that said, the Colts seem to be ready to use him a good bit in 2021. Moreover, they lack more reliable options. Campbell (WR67 on Sleeper) needs to make the most of his chances.
Moved Rodgers from QB24 to QB19 in SF/TE Premium (+5), QB20 to QB14 in 1QB (+38) — As explained earlier, Rodgers is going to play in 2021 for Green Bay, where he won the MVP in 2020. With his future still unsettled, he hasn’t moved up too much in the superflex ranks, but this season availability is a tremendous boost to his 1QB value. Rodgers is QB13 right now on Sleeper, and that seems likely to come up, which will give fantasy owners a real decision to make on rostering the 37 year-old superstar.
Moved Larry Rountree III from RB87 to RB68 (+38/+45) — The default expectation in Los Angeles is that there will be a bigger back to run in tandem with PPR superstar Austin Ekeler. Reports out of camp have one of Justin Jackson or Joshua Kelley on the chopping block after the Chargers selected Rountree in the sixth round of the 2021 draft. This makes him an intriguing late-round stash in deeper formats, as Rountree (RB68 on Sleeper) is a bit of a bruiser, scoring 14 touchdowns in his final season at Missouri.
Situations to Watch
Strange Situation in New Orleans
A bit of a strange situation has progressed rather quickly with the Saints. Devonta Freeman visited and quickly signed a one-year deal with the team to close out July, despite no injuries in the backfield. New Orleans clearly doesn’t have a need at this position, with Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray already in tow. This could be veteran insurance for a potential trade or suspension, or it could portend a different role for Kamara to open the season with Michael Thomas expected to be out for at least the first month. Keep track of how this progresses, and be prepared to move quickly if it turns out to be the former. For now, Kamara and Murray are our RB4 and RB46 respectively (RB4 and RB56 on Sleeper).
Saquon’s Health
After tearing his ACL last season, it is still unclear just how healthy Saquon Barkley is, or when we can expect him to return to the field with a full workload. The Giants have made a bunch of RB moves in the off-season, and reports have him starting the year with a decreased role – assuming he is active. Most recently, Barkley was non-committal on his status in numerous public appearances, including on The Rich Eisen Show. We have given him a slight downgrade to RB5 (RB5 on Sleeper).
Deshaun Watson’s Status
Amidst a complicated legal situation, Watson has reported to Texans training camp. It was expected that he would open the year on the Commissioner’s Exempt List, but the league – for now – has not concluded that there has been a major violation. This has teams poking around again for a potential trade. In camp, the Texans have not even attempted to make it look like Watson will be their QB this season, with him seeing reps at safety and RB. A trade here would dramatically alter the outlook for whatever team he ends up on. Fantasy-wise, we are still maintaining a high value for Watson while this situation progresses, ranking him QB11 in SF and QB9 in 1QB formats (QB14 on Sleeper).
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