Week 7 is a tough slate with one big favorite that has significant future value paired with a number of middle-of-the-pack type teams as the next best options.
Below, I’ll discuss multiple games, listed from highest projected ownership to least for teams with at least 1% projected ownership. As always, I will check in via the survivor pool channel in Discord to discuss any updates I have on any matchup.
If you’re in a pool with holiday slates, like Circa, you can find those schedules at the bottom of this column.
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Spread: Chiefs -11.5
Total: 45.5
Ownership: 35% (Less in Circa, low 20-24% range in holiday slate formats)
The Chiefs are the biggest favorite on this slate, they are the current favorite to win the Super Bowl, and Patrick Mahomes is the MVP frontrunner. The Raiders have been genuinely bad this season, and their already below-average offensive line is without its best player, LT Kolten Miller, so K.C.’s defense should have a trench advantage in this matchup.
The Raiders have only beaten the Chiefs once over the last three years, but three of Vegas’ five losses were one-score games. Ultimately, from a pure football standpoint, it would be a surprise if the Chiefs lost to the reeling Raiders, where divisional familiarity is really the only positive for Vegas, or the hope that Geno Smith finally carries a game.
This is primarily a future value decision. If you’re in a holiday slate tournament, like Circa, Kansas City has the Cowboys on Thanksgiving and Denver on the Christmas slate. You also have a great matchup in Tennessee in Week 16, so holding the Chiefs makes a lot of sense in those formats. Overall, the Chiefs are an excellent option on this slate. Whether to play them or not depends on which remaining slate you believe you’ll need them the most.
In the entries I still have Kansas City available, I will roughly split holding them and playing them here.
Best Remaining Matchups: Week 12 vs. IND, Week 13 at DAL (Thanksgiving), Week 16 at TEN, Week 18 at LV
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