The Beatdown: UFC Vegas 94

Note: Please read the full analysis, that is much more important than who I pick to win. The confidence relates to my pick to win, not the path to victory. Picks are NOT bets. Matchup breakdowns are written by Brett unless otherwise noted, and all DraftKings analysis is written by Brett. Both Technical Tim and Luke Lampe will also contribute to matchup breakdowns.

 

MAIN CARD

 

Amanda Lemos vs. Virna Jandiroba

 

Fight Odds: Jandiroba -131, Lemos +114

Odds to Finish: -180

DraftKings Salaries: Jandiroba $8.5K, Lemos $7.7K

Weight Class: 125

 

It’s not a high-profile main event, but I’m pretty excited to see Amanda Lemos and Virna Jandiroba square off on Saturday.

Lemos usually fights aggressively, and has shown some of the best power we’ve seen in this flyweight division. It’s led her to six knockdowns and several impressive finishes, and even a shot at the title against Zhang Weili in 2023.

Jandiroba is one of the best submission grapplers in the division, and it’s very likely that she’ll attack Lemos on the mat. It sets up well for a fun contest that could end dominantly on either side.

I very often prefer the grapplers though, especially when there are defensive question marks on the opposing side.

Lemos can grapple, but she’s struggled against the top of the division, and her lack of defensive wrestling and scrambling shows up in some of her losses. Zhang Weili really put it on her in that title fight, landing six takedowns with ease on seven attempts, and controlling the fight for more than 16 minutes.

Lemos hasn’t faced a ton of real wrestling threats otherwise. She escaped some bad spots against Mackenzie Dern, but Dern is a very weak wrestler and still did take her down, and Lemos is currently defending at a poor 57 percent overall.

Granted, Zhang is the champion of the division, but Jandiroba is a better pure submission grappler. That’s her speciality and the only real quality aspect of her game that separates her from her competition.

Jandiroba can wrestle too. She lands 2.36 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts about 6.5 in that time span.

She is very good at passing the guard, she is a very strong submission grappler, and she can also threaten and reverse position from the bottom.

Jandiroba is limited as an athlete though. She’s not a powerhouse and that probably prevents her from reaching an absolute wrestling or submission ceiling. She has struggled to finish most of her competition within the UFC.

On the feet, Jandiroba is a defender more than anything else. It’s not the place she’ll win. It’s the place where she can limit engagements and hope to turn the momentum on the mat.

She currently lands 2.30 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 2.96 per minute. It’s a super low volume and her career high is only 63 sig. strikes. She dropped Amanda Ribas but that says more about Ribas’ chin than it does Jandiroba’s power, cuz she really doesn’t have much.

She is competent defensively though, and has never been knocked down. If she only strikes with Lemos though, it could be a beating.

Lemos is way faster, way more powerful, more diverse and higher volume. Lemos may chew her up and a knockout wouldn’t shock me.

Jandiroba likely won’t stand and trade for long though, and eventually, Lemos will have to worry about that takedown threat as well, which could slow her pace, as is usual when Jandiroba fights.

So from a macro perspective, we have a somewhat binary matchup with one strong distance striker and one strong grappler.

Lemos has looked pretty awful in recent takedown defense, so I’m super skeptical she can keep the fight upright. I’d have to project Jandiroba for a few takedowns landed over 25 minutes, if not more.

With those takedowns, it’s very likely Jandiroba can control Lemos and put her in bad positions. She’ll probably take the back. From there, Jandiroba could easily get the submission.

Lemos has been subbed with a standing arm-triangle in recent years too, which is pretty embarrassing. She might have decent enough last-stand defense to survive, but my guess is Jandiroba will definitely put her in bad spots early.

Can Jandiroba fight for a hard five rounds if she can’t get the finish? I’m not certain. The longer Lemos can survive, the more chances she’ll have to land bigger strikes, and hope Jandiroba slows down.

Lemos didn’t look great toward the end of her championship fight though, so it’s probably just as likely that Lemos gets tired trying to defend grappling exchanges and can’t push an aggressive pace late. Simply surviving does give her outs though.

I’m never going to be extremely confident in a matchup where there are two somewhat obvious paths to victory, but I’m also very often going to side with the stronger grapplers in these situations, which is Jandiroba.