The Rundown: Week 12

Welcome to The Rundown: Week 12. Each week, we will be compiling some of our favorite and most actionable takes from the ETR team and organizing them on this page game by game. Please note that all betting information is sourced from DraftKings Sportsbook. If you’re betting sides and totals, always be sure to line shop first and utilize ETR’s various sportsbook bonus offers.

Saints at Falcons, 1:00 p.m. EST (return to top)

• Snaps and Pace: Pat Thorman called this game up in pace. The Saints operate at the second-quickest situation-neutral pace and are top five in average play-clock seconds remaining. Their contests produce the third-most combined plays (130.2), and over the last month, yield 50.7 total points on average (seventh). During neutral situations since Week 5, Atlanta has operated at the seventh-fastest pace. They rank top eight in average play-clock seconds remaining, and the results have shown up in their game environments — which are up to seventh in combined play volume.
• Cheap WRs: Gary Hartman listed Rashid Shaheed ($4,300 DK, $5,800 FD) as a great play on both sites. Shaheed should see an increased role coming his way with Michael Thomas heading to I.R. He projects for 5.2 targets this week in a favorable dome setting.
• Buy Leone: Drake London ($5,000 DK, 1.4 PPG underperformance) and Kyle Pitts ($4,000 DK, 1.7 PPG underperformance — second most among TEs) both appear in this week’s model.

Silva’s Matchups Takes:

• “Derek Carr is barely start-worthy in two-QB/Superflex leagues.”
• “I’m firing up Taysom Hill wherever he is tight end eligible.”
• “Only the Bucs and Eagles have surrendered fewer fantasy points to RBs than Atlanta. I’m treating Alvin Kamara as a somewhat risky RB2/flex starter.”
• “An obvious candidate to draw Falcons top CB A.J. Terrell’s shadow coverage, I’m approaching Chris Olave as a boom-bust WR2.”
• “A.T. Perry is a deep DFS tournament sleeper with Terrell likely attached to Olave.”
• “Rashid Shaheed may not become a starter but should still see more post-Thomas opportunities. He’s an upside WR3/flex dart.”
• “The Saints are stout in run defense, but Bijan Robinson is too talented in too productive a run scheme to not treat as a top-eight RB1 if that level of usage continues.”
• “Drake London is scoreless since Week 4 with one game above 78 yards all season.”
• “Kyle Pitts frustration continues to show no signs of dissipating.”

Steelers at Bengals, 1:00 p.m. EST (return to top)

• Snaps and Pace: Pat Thorman noted that Bengals games were not offering much play volume when Joe Burrow was healthy, and we can expect even less without him. Cincinnati ranks 23rd in overtime-adjusted snaps per game, and their contests produce the sixth-fewest combined snaps. Cincinnati operates at the 27th-fastest pace and averages the 26th-most play-clock seconds. The only things supporting what little play volume Bengals games offered were their pass rate and flammable defense.
• Cheap WRs: Gary Hartman listed Tyler Boyd ($4,600 DK, $5,900 FD) as a great play on both sites. Boyd should operate as an easy, middle-of-the-field possession type of target for a QB who will be looking to get comfortable. He projects for 7.0 targets.
• Buy Leone: Diontae Johnson ($4,900 DK, 2.1 PPG underperformance) appears in this week’s model. Adam noted in his context write-up that Johnson could get a little boost from Matt Canada getting fired, but the rumors are that George Pickens will get some more looks.

Silva’s Matchups Takes:

• “White-hot Jaylen Warren has emerged as the Steelers’ most confident fantasy asset.”
• “On paper, George Pickens’ matchup is improved by Bengals plus-sized CB Cam Taylor-Britt’s (quad) potential absence.”
• “Diontae Johnson has some #SqueakyWheel appeal after arguing with a coach on the sideline in last week’s loss to Cleveland.”
• “Pittsburgh’s D/ST is a green-light play…Jake Browning has attempted 15 passes this season.”
• “Inefficient in a disintegrating offense, Joe Mixon has devolved into a touchdown-or-bust RB2 play.”
• “Ja’Marr Chase’s floor and ceiling take obvious post-Burrow blows. The good news is the Steelers have coughed up the league’s seventh-most fantasy WR points.”
• “Tanner Hudson has slowly but surely worked his way into Cincy’s top pass-catching tight end role…But Hudson is still only playing a third of the offensive snaps in a TEBC with Irv Smith and Drew Sample.”

Panthers at Titans, 1:00 p.m. EST (return to top)