Thorman’s Snaps and Pace: Week 1

Welcome to the Week 1 edition of Snaps & Pace — winner of the 2024 FSWA Best Football Series — where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, while identifying main-slate matchups that will — and will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.

If you have been eagerly anticipating Week 1, you are not alone. From an influx of talented running backs to a deep cadre of capable quarterbacks, to coaching upgrades from Jacksonville to Chicago to Vegas — 2025 shapes up as a banger. We also had a wider variety of viable draft approaches than recent memory, which helped spark extra August enthusiasm. After an interminable offseason of theorizing, it’s time to get some answers.

With inflation hitting everywhere except NFL play volume, we need fast-paced offenses more than Belichick needs a babysitter. Last season was just the second time in the last 30 years — I didn’t look further back, I’ve got a family — that combined offensive snaps per game dipped below 125. Since that last occurred in 2008, NFL games averaged 127.3 plays before last season’s contests produced only 124.4 snaps.

Three fewer plays per game might not seem like a ton, but volume remains king and small edges add up. Fortunately, Week 1 offers a handful of main-slate matchups that project for outsized play volume, in addition to a wait-and-see potential pace powder keg we detail in Notes. So after eight long months… let’s dive back in.

“Situation neutral” is meant to provide context and refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half). Neutral Pace (average play-clock seconds used), Neutral Pace Over Expected (POE), and Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) are based on neutral game script and are provided by our data science team.

Up In Pace | Slow-Paced Slogs | Pace Notes

Up In Pace

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

Bengals at Browns doesn’t exactly scream fantasy goodness. Or goodness in general. Last year’s meetings produced only 38 and 30 total points, and a peek under the hood explains why. Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who currently throws as many NFL passes as you do, played both games for the Browns. The first meeting, however, also involved Jameis Winston — and it yielded a healthy 130 combined snaps. This year’s new/old version of Winston is Joe Flacco — who will allow Cleveland to play with adequate pace. Browns games generated the most and second-most combined offensive plays over the past two seasons, as Cleveland finished top 12 in neutral pass rate both years despite often abysmal quarterback play. Their rushing attack has been flaccid without Nick Chubb in recent seasons, the current backfield appears short on talent, and the Browns project to play from behind (+6). Flacco will drop back often enough to push the pace.