Thorman’s Snaps and Pace: Week 16

Welcome to the Week 16 edition of Snaps & Pace, where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, with the goal of identifying which matchups will — and which will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.

It was not hard to see the debacle coming, but that didn’t make it any easier to endure. It was as if the rest of the slate saw the Chiefs and Chargers put up 62 points on 146 plays and simply gave up on trying to top it. The other 15 games in a start-to-finish grueling Week 15 averaged only 37.3 points on 124.9 plays. Bah humbug, indeed.

Fortunately, we have a few interesting spots on the Week 16 main slate to nurse our Christmas (and Week 15) hangovers, so let’s jump right in. As always, “situation neutral” is meant to provide context, refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half), and is derived via the intrepid RotoViz Pace Tool.

Up In Pace

Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings

After a slow start to their Tuesday night matchup with the Seahawks, which consisted of only three points and a Goff-ian interception by Matthew Stafford, the Rams’ offense began clicking in the third quarter. Since their Week 11 bye, they rank fifth in both points per game and situation-neutral pass rate. Los Angeles operates at the fourth-fastest pace and goes no-huddle at the third-highest rate. Their defense has stepped up at times, and Los Angeles ranks sixth best in points allowed on a per-snap basis — but typically it’s been against broken offenses (Seahawks twice) or downright awful teams (Giants, Texans, Jaguars, Lions). Rams games produce the eighth-most combined plays and sixth-most total points. An indoor matchup in Minnesota with a tight point spread (Rams -3) projects closer to an uptempo back-and-forth affair, than a lopsided game in which one side winds up grinding clock.

Over the first five weeks, the Vikings operated at the 22nd-fastest situation-neutral pace (30.2 seconds per snap). Since then, Minnesota is the eighth-quickest offense (28.0). Their games average the sixth-most combined plays (128.8), with even more coming over the past four weeks (132). Vikings contests average the third-most total points (50.2). Despite Mike Zimmer’s annual subscription to Handoff Aficionado, Minnesota is extremely balanced — ranking 16th in situation-neutral pass rate both on the season (58%) and over the last month (58%). Their defense may have just held the Bears to nine points, but the Chicago offense is less coordinated than the port-a-john line after a Phish show — and the Vikings allowed 30.5 points per game during the month leading up to Monday night. It is no secret that Vikings games tend to be as wild as Zimmer’s dating profile, and now they face the tempo-accelerating Rams.