Thorman’s Snaps and Pace: Week 4

Welcome to the Week 4 edition of Snaps & Pace, where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, while identifying main-slate matchups that will — and will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.

If you haven’t been living under a rock, you’re aware that scoring is down. We’ve been forced to become comfortable winning fantasy rock fights. We may have to get a little dirt on us, and nothing is as elemental to fantasy as opportunity.

Look at the Bears-Colts game on Sunday, which delivered five turnovers, Tebowian passing accuracy, and several early trips to the liquor cabinet. Yet, despite an anemic final score of 21-16, it also produced the weekly QB10, RB5, WR7, TE2, and an additional fantasy RB2 and WR2.

The Bears and Colts play fast. Their matchup yielded a season-high 138 combined snaps. It wasn’t always pretty — okay, it was pretty rarely pretty. Yet, the volume of snaps supplemented player totals, even in a low-scoring game.

We will always target the flashy matchups likely to lead slates in scoring. We can all find projected game totals. Sadly, there are fewer high-octane games available in the current climate.

This week, we will highlight a few lower-tier options that should be, while hideous on the surface, flush with opportunity to supplement fantasy scoring. It’s going to be an ugly ride, so let’s dive right in.

“Situation neutral” is meant to provide context and refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half). Neutral Pace (average play-clock seconds used), Neutral Pace Over Expected (POE), and Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) are based on neutral game script and are provided by our data science team.

Up In Pace | Worth Mentioning | Slow-Paced Slogs | Pace Notes

Up In Pace

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts

Well, you were warned. We are kicking this trolling trip off with an Arthur Smith offense, because what could go wrong? The Steelers have technically “played fast” all season, and it continued in Week 3 with Smith’s offense ranking eighth in Neutral Pace on the week. Of course, their matchup with the Chargers yielded a comically-low 110 combined snaps, thanks in large part to as many runs as pass attempts and Los Angeles’ pace — which was second slowest on the week. While Pittsburgh deployed a moderate neutral run rate (39%; 18th), it didn’t sniff their customary level of ground-pounding (52% through Week 2; second). Smith will likely opt for a run-leaning plan — but with their backfield banged up, Justin Fields showing signs of growth, and Mike Tomlin needing a good reason to put Russ Wilson out of our misery, we could see Pittsburgh’s highest pass rate of the season in Indianapolis. Colts opponents not quarterbacked by Malik Willis have thrown at an elevated rate.

In contrast to Fields, Anthony Richardson has shown signs of regressing. He rarely scrambles and completes passes with coin-flip frequency. He still operates one of the league’s fastest offenses, as the Colts are second in Neutral Pace and fourth in Neutral No-Huddle Rate — an area in which the Steelers rank a surprising ninth. Thanks to Richardson’s inconsistencies, the Colts’ lightning offensive pace, the second-highest explosive play rate, and their inability to stay on the field (26th in third-down conversion rate) or get off of it (27th in third-down stop rate), Indianapolis has a cartoonish -25.7 per-game plays differential. That’s equivalent to over four possessions per game. Pittsburgh’s defense remains dominant, ranking first in EPA per play allowed — and Ray Charles can see the matchup’s foreboding 40-point total. Yet here we seek play volume and, at least for the Steelers’ offense, this is an excellent place to look.