Thorman’s Snaps and Pace: Week 6

Welcome to the Week 6 edition of Snaps & Pace — winner of the 2024 FSWA Best Football Series — where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, while identifying main-slate matchups that will — and will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.

While we are off to a solid start in the scoring department relative to last season, play volume remains muted. At the league level, teams are running one fewer play per game — which might not sound like much but adds up. On the low end, things are even darker.

The Bengals (54), Steelers (53.8), Dolphins (53.2), and Ravens (50) are all producing fewer plays than the last-place team in snaps after five weeks a season ago. At the high end, only the 49ers are running more plays per game than the top team from 2024 (68.2).

For now, we’re thankful that scoring is up. Out of the first five weeks, only Week 1 averaged fewer points per game (44.1) than last season’s kickoff week (45.8). Each of the following four weeks have been higher-scoring this year.

Yet, while a little more scoring is welcome, it is not everything — as Bill Belichick learns the hard way. We need more snap volume for things to really pop in fantasy. Perhaps the plays catch up to the points in Week 6, as there appear to be more up-pace matchups than surefire slogs — and we finish with some sweet prime-time games… so let’s dive in.

“Situation neutral” is meant to provide context and refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half). Neutral Pace (average play-clock seconds used), Neutral Pace Over Expected (POE), and Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) are based on neutral game script and are provided by our data science team.

Up In Pace | Slow-Paced Slogs | Pace Notes

Up In Pace

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers

The Cowboys bring their traveling fantasy circus to Carolina, sparking hope they will elevate another road matchup with a low-volume offense. Before Dak Prescott rolled into town, Jets games yielded only 118.5 combined plays per game (27th). Their matchup with the Cowboys produced the most snaps of Week 5 among non-overtime games (132) and the third-most total points (59). Dallas’ offense ranks eighth in neutral pace and fifth in situation-neutral pass rate (60%). Cowboys games are top five in both combined snaps and total points (61.0), in large part due to a defense that needs a pass rusher like Jerry Jones needs a nap. Dallas ranks third in EPA per play on offense and 32nd in EPA per play allowed on defense. They are seventh in both points scored and points surrendered on a per-snap basis. The more play volume in their contests, the more of a disproportionate benefit we reap from a fantasy angle. They are Jerry’s perfect entertainment storm, and as with Prescott and Tony Romo, he fell ass-backwards into it. Better to be lucky than good.