Thorman’s Snaps and Pace: Week 7

Welcome to the Week 7 edition of Snaps & Pace, where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, with the goal of identifying which main-slate matchups will — and which will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.

Week 6 felt like the entire league flipped their Madden skill level to All-Pro for the first time — while keeping the injury slider cranked. Scoring hadn’t exactly been plentiful over the first five weeks at only 44.7 points per game. Week 6 contests squeezed out a 36.7-point average. The only thing getting hit more often than Sam Howell is the Under.

Now we get a meaty six teams on bye, reducing the main slate to 10 games — or 9.5 if you count Raiders-Bears. The pace-based pickings are slim on this sad breadline of a main slate, but still, we must dive in.

As always, “situation neutral” is meant to provide context, refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half), and is derived via the intrepid RotoViz Pace Tool. The average play-clock seconds remaining are also based on neutral game script and are provided by our machine, Mike Leone.

Up In Pace

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

No matter from how many angles we stare at it, the Week 7 main slate centers on Chargers-Chiefs, warts and all. While Los Angeles profiles similarly to recent seasons, with a talented offense and matador defense, Kansas City is a different animal. Despite the Chargers failing to light up Monday night while averaging a punchless 4.5 yards per play and only 17 points, they were facing a Cowboys defense ranked fourth in EPA per play and allowing the seventh-fewest points per snap. On the season, Los Angeles still ranks eighth in yards and ninth in points on a per-play basis. They average the eighth-most play-clock seconds remaining at the snap and have passed at the second-highest rate over the last month while games remain close (67%). Chargers contests average the second-most combined plays (131) and fifth-most total points (50.2) — which is more than enough to anchor to on this anemic slate.

The problem with pardoning Los Angeles for a muted performance against the Dallas defense is Kansas City has been even more stingy. The Chiefs allow the third-fewest points and seventh-fewest yards on a per-snap basis. Their defense ranks sixth in EPA per play allowed and, more worryingly for fantasy ceilings, second in dropback success rate. The Chargers are unlikely to go ground-and-pound in search of a path of least resistance, and Kansas City opponents rank sixth in situation-neutral pass rate despite their relative defensive strength. On offense, the Chiefs aren’t playing as quickly as we’re used to, ranking 12th in pace — versus third a year ago. Their pass rate is typically elevated (67%; third), but a maddening receiver rotation remains a fantasy frustration. Perhaps Andy Reid used the mini-bye to streamline his wideouts instead of galaxy-braining short-yardage circus plays. While this matchup does not profile as the slam-dunk fantasy bonanza we’re used to, both offenses move quickly while ranking top five in PROE — and that’s often all we can ask.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

While there is a significant step down in pace-based expectation from Chargers-Chiefs to other main-slate contests, the Seahawks have reliably driven tempo in most matchups. The Cardinals have been malleable when facing faster-paced opponents, with games against the Cowboys, Bengals, and Rams producing above-par totals of 128, 136, and 128 snaps, respectively. Despite a run-heavy offense ranked 26th in situation-neutral pass rate (54%), the Cardinals average the 12th-most play-clock seconds and deploy the 12th-highest no-huddle rate when games are close. They should throw at least a bit more against a Seahawks defense that ranks fifth in rush EPA, 20th in dropback EPA, and faces the seventh-highest situation-neutral pass rate. Cardinals contests average the ninth-most total points, thanks in large part to a toothless defense that sits 30th in EPA per play and dead last in success rate — while surrendering the fifth-most yards and sixth-most points on a per-snap basis.

It is doubtful that the Arizona pass rush hounds Geno Smith nearly as often as he experienced on Sunday in Cincinnati. A relentless 45.8% pressure rate was his highest in any game since taking over as the starter last year, and Smith handled that heat about as reliably as his coach handles injury reports. While the Bengals’ pass rush grades seventh best, the Cardinals are 28th and rank last in pressure rate. With Smith upright, Seattle will be free to propel the game’s pace. It’s possible they lean run-heavier after watching the Rams drag the Cardinals on the ground, but that would be a departure from what we’ve seen since last season — and what their post-bye increase in 11 personnel portends. During neutral situations, the Seahawks pass at the seventh-highest rate (62%), and it’s edged up over the last four weeks (64%). They rank fifth in points per snap, sixth in situation-neutral pace, and are fifth in pace while up at least a touchdown. They are more than a touchdown home favorite on Sunday (+8). Seattle’s games are top 10 in combined snaps and total points — and only the Dolphins and 49ers produce pace-juicing explosive plays at a higher rate.

Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts