Thorman’s Snaps and Pace: Week 7

Welcome to the Week 7 edition of Snaps & Pace — winner of the 2024 FSWA Best Football Series — where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, while identifying main-slate matchups that will — and will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.

As in life, some weeks in an NFL season are brighter than others. Sometimes you average over 49 points per game with a Shanahan-McVay shot and Mahomes-Lawrence chaser. But on occasion that’s followed by season-low scoring, a three-point Cooper Rush/Tyler Huntley collab, and Sean Payton hiding Bo Nix in London while Justin Fields swallows morning tea and nine sacks. It’s a real box of chocolates.

Not only did Week 6 deliver only 42.1 points per game, it provided a season low in play volume with 120.1 snaps on average. Fast teams played slow, slow teams played slower, somehow Browns-Steelers delivered the second-most combined plays of the season, and someone okayed four straight Tush Pushes.

A new week offers the promise of plentiful play volume — in addition to yet another London game and a Monday night doubleheader most of the country will miss the ass end of because it starts after Pete Carroll’s bedtime. Pass the Casamigos… it’s time to dive in.

“Situation neutral” is meant to provide context and refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half). Neutral Pace (average play-clock seconds used), Neutral Pace Over Expected (POE), and Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) are based on neutral game script and are provided by our data science team.

Up In Pace | Start Your Defenses | Slow-Paced Slogs | Pace Notes

Up In Pace

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys

While the Commanders’ offense has been solid, it’s been a half step behind the juggernaut we saw down the stretch last year. A trip to Dallas should help it pick up the pace, as dates with the Cowboys puts pep in everyone’s step. The Commanders are scoring roughly two fewer points per game than last season, while their no-huddle rate is essentially the same (62%), and they average more yards per play (5.9 versus 5.7). Washington is, however, moving significantly slower — both by neutral pace (37.1 seconds versus 35.0) and neutral pace over expected (-0.8 versus +1.7). They tapped the brakes when Jayden Daniels hurt his knee and haven’t reaccelerated. Yet. Washington has been pass-heavier behind Daniels, both before and after his injury, with positive PROE marks in all four of his starts (+3%, +5%, +10%, +1%) versus -9% in both games with Marcus Mariota. Of course, we’ll almost certainly see Washington test Dallas’ wet-paper-bag run defense. Still, with Daniels rounding into form and Terry McLaurin potentially returning to further loosen the Cowboys’ fire-drill secondary, enough tempo-elevating elements exist to dive into this matchup.

Perhaps due to the Cowboys missing several offensive linemen, or because CeeDee Lamb is still sidelined — but they have only been their typically fast-paced selves in spurts this season. Dallas ranked 14th in neutral pace during an upset in Carolina on Sunday and sit eighth on the season. They did finish with a +2% PROE, their second straight positive rate — although it was at least partially out of necessity against the suddenly stout Panthers run stopping. Against a Washington run defense that has allowed the fifth-most EPA per rush over the past three weeks, the ground game should come back into play. Still, the Cowboys remain a nearly perfect fantasy formula of first in offensive EPA per play and last on defense. They’re first in yards gained and yards surrendered, while their games rank seventh in combined snaps and first in total points (60.3). Neither the Commanders (13th) nor Cowboys (19th) are setting records in explosive play rate, but their defenses — ranked third and fifth worst in surrendering chunk gains, respectively — offer a path to revival on Sunday. Sprinkle in increasingly healthy offenses, and we’ve got ourselves what should be the fastest-paced stew of the week.