Thorman’s Snaps and Pace: Week 8

Welcome to the Week 8 edition of Snaps & Pace, where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, with the goal of identifying which main-slate matchups will — and which will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.

Some weeks are cleaner than others for projecting up-pace matchups, even when the NFL decides there are no teams on bye in the middle of bye season. There are fewer offenses we implicitly trust, as well as an increase in formidable defenses attached to the fast-paced units that we do.

It is not conducive to mutually voluminous point and play volume to have the Chiefs, Cowboys, Browns, Ravens, and Jaguars top seven in defensive EPA — with the Bills, Eagles, and Seahawks not far off. We did, however, find a clear winner this week, along with a potential diamond in the rough — so let’s dive in.

As always, “situation neutral” is meant to provide context, refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half), and is derived via the intrepid RotoViz Pace Tool. The average play-clock seconds remaining are also based on neutral game script and are provided by our machine, Mike Leone.

Up In Pace

New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts

The headliner up-pace matchup is a no-brainer this week. Both of these offenses have their fair share of issues, but they’re faster than Chris Olave on a CVS run. The Saints have been the league’s premier “hurry-up and punt” outfit, ranking fifth in average play-clock seconds remaining when snapping the ball and tied for first in total punts (35). Their league-leading situation-neutral pace, along with the seventh-highest pass rate (61%), have helped propel Saints games to the fourth-most average combined plays (130.6). At the same time, those contests produce the fifth-fewest total points (37.1) thanks to a solid New Orleans defense and a quarterback who’s about as inspiring as a mayo sandwich. The Saints rank fourth in total drives, 27th in points per drive, and 28th in red-zone scoring rate. They do so little with so many opportunities, you’d think Joe Mixon was in their huddle. The silver lining for fantasy is they continue to produce those opportunities, and something eventually has to pop other than Alvin Kamara’s dump-off count.

Even with Gardner Minshew at the helm, the Colts’ torrid tempo has been reliable all year, and facing Cleveland’s imposing defense didn’t make a dent. Indianapolis finished fifth in average play-clock seconds, while their game produced a healthy 139 combined snaps and a Week 7-high 77 total points. It has not mattered that Indianapolis remains run-heavy, and if they can pile up plays against Cleveland’s defense while throwing at only a 41% clip during neutral situations, they can do it against anyone. No one plays more voluminous contests (133.1 combined snaps), and only Dolphins games average more total points. As long as Indianapolis continues to rank fourth in pace, fourth in average play-clock seconds, and they keep surrendering the league’s second-most points, we’ll gladly ride the Minshew Coaster. With both of these teams top four in combined play volume over the last month, we’re sitting up front.

Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys

As they did in 2022, the Rams moved glacially to start the season. They ranked 31st in situation-neutral pace after three games, before deploying the fourth-fastest offense from Week 4 through halftime of their game against the Cardinals in Week 6. Los Angeles took a 9-6 deficit into the third quarter, when Sean McVay’s offense pivoted and plodded to victory at 35.6 seconds per snap, with only a 32% situation-neutral pass rate. They then carried a similar plan into the next game with the Steelers, passing at a 52% rate (ninth lowest of Week 7) and operating at the 11th-slowest pace. It muted the game’s play volume, which ranked third lowest on the week (118 combined snaps). With a shaky offensive line, a beat-up Matthew Stafford, and a surprisingly effective no-name running game, their strategy was clear against a strong pass rush — the same conundrum they’ll face in Dallas. So why don’t we expect the game to unfold in a similar way?

The Cowboys’ offense can be frustrating at times, but it is light-years beyond the Cardinals and Steelers — who did not truly push the Rams throughout their matchups. The Dallas run defense is often challenged, and faces the fifth-highest opponent situation-neutral run rate (47%), but it is superior to Arizona and Pittsburgh’s run-stopping in rush EPA allowed, yards per carry surrendered, and PFF grade — by a strong margin in most cases. The Rams will no doubt try to run, but they’ll have a tougher time. The Dallas offense should eventually help speed Los Angeles back up. It ranks fifth in situation-neutral pace and first in average play-clock seconds. The Cowboys are throwing at the sixth-highest clip during neutral situations and scoring at the fifth-highest rate on a per-play basis. McVay won’t play slowly for long if the Rams fall behind, as they’re first in pace when losing by at least a touchdown — and they’re 6.5-point road dogs on Sunday.

Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers