Thorn: Biggest OL vs. DL Mismatches, Week 10

The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.

The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.

The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.

With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Week 10. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.

Week 10 Bye Week: Browns, Raiders, Packers and Seahawks

DL Rankings – Week 10

1. Steelers – The team traded for Packers edge rusher Preston Smith.
2. Chiefs
3. Browns
4. Broncos
5. Vikings
6. Eagles
7. Giants
8. Texans – Edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with an ankle injury.
9. 49ers – DT Javon Hargrave is out for the year with a torn triceps.
10. Seahawks
11. Rams
12. Bills
13. Lions – DE Aidan Hutchinson is out indefinitely with a broken leg. The team traded for Browns edge rusher Za’Darius Smith.
14. Chargers
15. Ravens
16. Bucs
17. Packers
18. Cowboys – DE DeMarcus Lawrence is on short-term injured reserve that will keep him out until at least Week 9. Backup edge rusher Marshawn Kneeland was placed on short-term injured reserve after Week 5.
19. Jets
20. Colts
21. Jaguars
22. Bengals
23. Raiders – DE Malcolm Koonce is on season-ending injured reserve. DT Christian Wilkins is on short-term injured reserve with a foot injury and will be out until at least Week 10.
24. Bears
25. Titans
26. Saints
27. Patriots – DT Christian Barmore is out indefinitely with blood clots.
28. Commanders – DT Jon Allen suffered a torn pec in Week 6 and is out for the season.
29. Falcons
30. Dolphins – Bradley Chubb has not played yet this season and remains out this week. DE Jaelan Phillips is out for the year with a knee injury.
31. Cardinals – DE Dennis Gardeck is out for the year with a torn ACL.
32. Panthers – DT Derrick Brown is out for the season with a knee injury.