Value Report: 3M Open

It’s hard to believe that we’ve already closed the chapter on major championships in 2025, but it was quite the historic year. Rory McIlroy winning The Masters, Scottie dominating twice, plus J.J. Spaun’s Cinderella story made it quite the compelling year for golf’s biggest events. As covered in yesterday’s GPP Data Review, the slate didn’t work out the way I approached it, but as a pure golf fan, it’s hard to comprehend how amazing Scottie Scheffler is. His mental approach caught a bit of a media frenzy from his Tuesday press conference, but it’s that sense of fulfillment from his faith and family that also gives him a clear head to approach an event like The Open Championship unlike most in the field. Scheffler once again left no doubt that he is the best player since Tiger Woods.

Checking out the Value Report, we hit the nail on the head when it came to low-owned large-field tournament plays. Tom McKibbin would be the one who I can understand some steam frustrations on, as he flipped double digits in smaller-field contests, which was largely due to the home-course narrative. But other than that, all stayed relatively in check. Unfortunately, the results weren’t too hot. The two golfers who paid off their salaries were J.J. Spaun and Dustin Johnson, but both still left a lot of meat on the bone. DJ had it going on Thursday before ending with a double bogey, while Spaun derailed a couple of strong scoring rounds with poor play late. Jordan Smith was the other golfer who made the cut and sat T12 at the halfway point before a very disappointing weekend. Smith looks very likely to earn his PGA Tour card this year, so we will get used to rostering him next season.

Of the missed cuts, it’s very easy to get caught up in how to predict LIV golfers. They’ve been among the most difficult players to get right at major championships and it really seems that so much of the PGA Tour priors for them can be forgotten about, highlighted by Cam Smith. The ownership and price can be so tantalizing, but the lack of competitive reps really seems to be hurting so many of their players despite the talent we have seen them showcase. Also, despite Aldrich Potgieter missing the cut by a mile, he will be in the hunt at St. Andrews in 2026.

Let’s turn the page here to the 3M Open as we approach the last two events before the FedEx Cup playoffs. With the switch of cards being up for grabs in the fall swing, the pressure isn’t as high around the bubble, but it’s something I’m paying attention to, as working yourself inside the top 100 gives you a lot more wiggle room come September. Also, TPC Twin Cities is a polarizing course, especially as there was recently a ton of debate around Detroit Golf Club. Like that week in Detroit, it looks like, on paper, there’s more of a bump for accuracy and, as shown in our Course Preview and Fits column, there’s a knock to those with high driving skill. But when studying the leaderboard throughout the years, the top end of the 3M Open has been largely full of bombers, and when Cameron Champ can dominate an event, there’s a clear path for those with a distance advantage to score well. The data overall is having a hard time catching up with the ceiling that these players have shown off the tee. Hitting it 330+ yards and possessing field-average accuracy is something we just haven’t seen outside of the true elites, but now there are a dozen players doing so at courses with little rough. I see that to be the case here at TPC Twin Cities. We saw the same at Detroit, and even a historical course like Colonial Country Club was flipped on its head with distance this year. There’s of course a path for those who play tidier golf to get it done, just like how Chris Kirk was in that playoff at the Rocket Classic, but overall I’m leaning into the big hitters this week to give themselves separation at the 3M!

Austin Eckroat, $7,100 – Of disappointing 2025s, I’d rank Austin Eckroat near the top after he broke out with two victories last year. One of those victories came at the Cognizant Classic, which has been a correlation course for the 3M, and his steady approach game plus accuracy should keep him out of trouble here at TPC Twin Cities. Eckroat missed the cut at the Barracuda due to Stableford scoring last week, despite being inside the number of traditional stroke play, so I am not worried at all about that missed cut. Prior to that, Eckroat had his best finish of the year with an 11th-place showing at the John Deere Classic, which at that point was his seventh made cut in a row. His approach game is completely dialed like usual, and I think we are close to the breakthrough again on such a talented player.