XFL Top Plays: Week 2

Editor’s Note: We may not write up every player we consider to be a top play. Be sure to consult the chart at the bottom of the page. This page will be updated, if necessary.

You don’t have to play cash games to understand why it’s important to grasp them. Players we consider for cash are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo, and feature a relatively tight range of outcomes.

In other words, these are the best plays on the board once price, slate context, and positional depth are accounted for. Those sound like pretty good options for GPPs as well.

The optimal GPP lineup will mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership, game stacks, or correlation. In large-field tournaments, our ACO (average cumulative ownership) should stay reasonably low. Please read this article and listen to Episode 237 of the podcast for more on large-field tournament strategy.

With all that said, these are our Top Plays considering the following factors: median projection, matchup, upside, and value. Ownership is NOT considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations”.

QUARTERBACK

Ben DiNucci (Seattle – $10200) – QB seems to have a top tier this week with two guys that possess a higher floor/ceiling combo than the rest, Ben DiNucci and Brandon Silvers. You do have to pay up for the former Cowboy DiNucci, and he did struggle with turnovers last week, but Seattle ran 75 plays and he dropped back to throw on 57 of those snaps. Throw in the fact that the Sea Dragons perhaps have the best group of receiving weapons in the league, and DiNucci certainly seems like a top option in cash or GPPs. 

Brandon Silvers (Houston – $8400) – The Houston offense was as advertised in Week 1, sporting a 71.64% pass rate, with Silvers dropping back on 46-of-59 total plays. (Cole McDonald dropped back on 2-of-8 snaps and seems to be cemented as the running QB option). Silvers also showed the ability to support multiple wide receivers, making him a high-floor/high-ceiling combo that could be used in cash, or stacked in tournaments.

RUNNING BACK

Max Borghi (Houston – $8000) – While Borghi wasn’t necessarily as advertised in the passing game (had four targets on 11 routes), his role in this prolific Houston offense is no doubt a valuable one. He passed the eye test and found the end zone after playing on a little over 50% of snaps. His touchdown equity is high in this offense, and he should be able to continue to produce, even if his role isn’t as substantial as some of the other guys on this list.

Kalen Ballage (San Antonio – $7100) – San Antonio clearly wants to be a run-heavy team, with a true 50% run share in Week 1 on a week-high 78 total snaps. Ballage saw the most work for the Brahmas, playing 43 total snaps with a lofty 24 carries. He doesn’t figure to be too involved in the passing game, but he seems like the true RB1 on a team that wants to run first. 

De’Veon Smith (Arlington – $5700) – Smith, the XFL rushing leader in 2020, came out of the gate as the clear Arlington RB1 in Week 1, with perhaps the best rushing role in the league. Smith played on a whopping 73.3% of snaps (44-of-60), on a team that ran the ball on 51.67% of their total snaps. Smith also ran 15 routes and comes in as only the 10th-priciest back on the slate.

WIDE RECEIVER/TIGHT END

Deontay Burnett (Houston – $8500), Jontre Kirklin (Houston – $7100) – It’s easy to remain excited about Burnett, Kirklin, Harris, and this entire Houston pass game after what we saw in Week 1, and it does seem that Burnett and Kirklin seem to be the two alphas that are playing the outside WR roles on this team. Both Burnett and Kirklin played on all 67 of Houston’s snaps and had a combined 19 targets.

Jahcour Pearson (Seattle – $7300) – The Seattle offense ran a hefty 75 total plays, and Pearson was only behind Blake Jackson as far as Seattle routes run. Pearson had a huge day in Week 1 with 16 (!) targets, catching 12 of those for 95 yards. He figures to be the most popular WR play of Week 2, and he should be a staple of cash consideration. 

Sal Canella (Arlington – $6500) – Our thoughts that Canella would be heavily featured after being Arlington’s first-round draft choice came to fruition in Week 1, with coach Bob Stoops utilizing the talented tight end to the tune of 76.7% of snaps, producing a 7/70 line on 26 routes run. His $6500 tag is a friendly one for what should continue to be a high-volume role.

*Blake Jackson (SEA – $6400), Travell Harris (HOU – $5900) – It’s worth noting that both Jackson and Harris, the WR3s on the offenses we’re most excited about, would be considered Top Plays for us this week if they do indeed play. Both guys are listed on the injury report as of Wednesday afternoon. Jackson, it seems, has nearly as strong of a role as Pearson, and would be a popular play if he suits up. Harris is a guy that may fall through the cracks a lot more but had great underlying usage numbers in Week 1, running a route on 43-of-56 snaps, and earning 12 targets, primarily in the slot.

DEFENSE

Houston Roughnecks ($4500) – While the Roughnecks certainly have the league’s most prolific offense, their defense also showed out in Week 1, compiling seven sacks and three interceptions. They also are leading the way this week as nearly 5-point favorites at home against Arlington.

San Antonio Brahmas ($4000) – San Antonio has the potential fortune of facing off against the Orlando Guardians this week, the team that as currently constructed seems like the league’s worst from an offensive talent perspective. This game also sports one of the highest game totals on the week with a 38.5 line.

Seattle Sea Dragons ($3500) – We’ll want to continue to attack teams against the St. Louis offense, whose offensive line struggled mightily in Week 1.

THE SOLVER RULE SUGGESTIONS

RULE 1: Max 2 RB/WR/TE for non HOU/SEA teams

We think Houston and Seattle have very pass-heavy offenses with capable QBs that make it possible for up to 3 flex players to get into the optimal, but we wouldn’t want more than 2 RB/WR/TEs for other teams.

RULE 2: Max 2 WR/TE from same team unless w/ QB

This is very similar to the rule above, but we want to make sure we don’t get 3 WR/TEs from the same team together unless it’s a lineup that contains their respective QB.