XFL Top Plays: Week 3

Editor’s Note: We may not write up every player we consider to be a top play. Be sure to consult the chart at the bottom of the page. This page will be updated, if necessary.

 

You don’t have to play cash games to understand why it’s important to grasp them. Players we consider for cash are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo, and feature a relatively tight range of outcomes.

In other words, these are the best plays on the board once price, slate context, and positional depth are accounted for. Those sound like pretty good options for GPPs as well.

The optimal GPP lineup will mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership, game stacks, or correlation. In large-field tournaments, our ACO (average cumulative ownership) should stay reasonably low. Please read this article and listen to Episode 237 of the podcast for more on large-field tournament strategy.

 

With all that said, these are our Top Plays considering the following factors: median projection, matchup, upside, and value. Ownership is NOT considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations”.

 

QUARTERBACK

A.J. McCarron (St. Louis – $10600) – McCarron, the most decorated QB in this league coming into the season, has lived up to that reputation. He has the Battlehawks sitting at 2-0, and he dropped back another 36 times last week, throwing for 184 yards and a touchdown while also rushing in another. He projects as our second-highest-scoring QB this week, and he may have the safest floor in the league.

Ben DiNucci (Seattle – $10500) – DiNucci and the Sea Dragons’ passing offense continues to be one of the most aggressive in the league, throwing the ball on nearly 71% of plays in Week 2. DiNucci didn’t fully fix his turnover problem (he did lose a fumble), but he didn’t throw any interceptions, and Seattle continues to have one of the most prolific receiving corps in the league. 

Brandon Silvers (Houston – $9500) – The only concerning thing for Silvers is the fact that he’s losing some vital work to Cole McDonald in rushing situations and around the goal line. However, it might not matter too much, as the Roughnecks continue to air it out and operate at a fast pace. Silvers dropped back 28 more times in Week 2, and Silvers has shown an ability to move the ball through the air, finding the end zone twice with zero interceptions. Silvers’ stacking options are aplenty, too.

 

RUNNING BACK

Abram Smith (DC – $8200) – The Defenders continued to be very run-heavy in Week 2, running the ball on 55% of their week-high 72 snaps. Smith is splitting time with former NFLer Ryquell Armstead, but it’s Smith who has been more impactful with his carries, averaging 6.5 YPC on his 11 Week 2 rushes, and finding the end zone.

De’Veon Smith (Arlington – $6500) – Smith projects as our second-highest-scoring back of the week, and his role remains really strong for the Renegades. Arlington was playing from behind for most of the second half last week, causing them to abandon the run a little bit, but Smith was still the RB1. He also posted 4/32 through the air. Smith played 37 total snaps, 20 more than next RB Keith Ford’s 17.

Morgan Ellison (Seattle – $4600) – Seattle has proven to be a solid offense and Ellison is the very clear RB1 there. Not only that, but he is far too cheap this week at only $4600. He’s projecting as our top RB on the week and will be mega chalk, but he should be a staple of cash games. Ellison made an impact on the ground and through the air in Week 2, with 10/50 rushing and 4/24 receiving.

 

*It’s worth making a note on the St. Louis RB situation. Brian Hill missed last week with a hamstring injury he picked up in Week 1, and he is currently listed as limited in practice this week. This sets up for Mataeo Durant and Kareem Walker to split duties, and both be in play once again. 

 

WIDE RECEIVER/TIGHT END

Deontay Burnett (Houston – $9100), Jontre Kirklin (Houston – $7700)  – We’re going to continue to want to attack this Houston aerial attack, and both Burnett and Kirklin have proven to be every-down players. Burnett is due for a bounce back after playing every snap and only hauling in one catch for four yards, while Kirklin only caught two balls last week but for 56 yards. We’ll continue to lean on both of their usages. 

Jahcour Pearson (Seattle – $9000), Blake Jackson (SEA – $7100) – Pearson, not Josh Gordon, is very clearly the WR1 in Seattle, and he followed up his 12-catch Week 1 with another impressive 4/78/1 line in Week 2. Pearson played the most snaps of all Seattle wideouts with 49-of-51, but Blake Jackson wasn’t far behind him at 41. Jackson was limited again in practice this week but played through his injury in Week 2 and finds himself almost $2000 cheaper than his teammate. Both guys will come with plenty of ownership.

Sal Canella (Arlington – $7100) – After Pearson, Canella is projecting for our second-highest DraftKings score of all pass catchers this weekend. He played 54-of-59 snaps, catching 4-of-4 targets for 38 yards. He gets a great matchup this week with the league’s worst team in Orlando, and he should see plenty of volume once again.

Austin Proehl (St. Louis – $5500) – Proehl continues to impress and is turning into one of A.J. McCarron’s favorite targets. Proehl is a reasonable salary saver for DFS purposes and a solid stacking option with McCarron in his valuable slot role, especially considering how pass-heavy the Battlehawks were in Week 2.

 

DEFENSE

Roughnecks (Houston – $5000) – Wade Phillips bunch has been dominant to start the season, maybe even more so than his equally impeccable offense. Albeit over just a two-week sample, the Roughnecks defense has the league’s highest regressed sack rate (11.3%) having gotten to the QB a league-high twelve times.

Renegades (Arlington – $4800) – Death, taxes and targeting this dreadful Orlando Guardians offense. Through two weeks no team has allowed more sacks (8) than Orlando and though Arlington has gotten to the QB just four times to start the season, as 9.5-point favorites they should force the Guardians QB tandem into more dropbacks, resulting in more scoring opportunities for their D/ST.

 

THE SOLVER RULE SUGGESTIONS

RULE 1: IF lineup contains Abram Smith, Dock Ta’Amu, King, and Armstead by 15%

D.C. relies primarily on its rushing attack, which ties its fantasy value to touchdowns. If Abram Smith gets in the end zone, it makes it less likely one of the other rushing options does enough to get into the optimal, so we prefer docking the rest of the options in lineups with Smith.

 

RULE 2: At least two players where ownership % is less than 10%

The XFL has proven to be volatile as we expected and roles are still changing as teams determine who they trust the most. That should encourage contrarian play, and we think forcing in at least one and potentially even two players under 10% makes sense in large tournaments. Side note: Make sure this rule is in the “Stats – By Lineups” section and not in the “Stats – By Team” section.