GM: Chris Grier
HC: Mike McDaniel
OC: Frank Smith
DC: Anthony Weaver
Projected Starting Lineup
QB: Tua Tagovailoa
RB: Raheem Mostert
WR1: Tyreek Hill
WR2: Jaylen Waddle
WR3: Odell Beckham
TE: Jonnu Smith
LT: Terron Armstead
LG: Isaiah Wynn
C: Aaron Brewer
RG: Rob Jones
RT: Austin Jackson
Passing Game Outlook
Tua Tagovailoa controversially landed a four-year, $212.4 million extension just before training camp after leading the NFL in yards per pass attempt (8.9) in 2022, then leading the league in passing yards (4,624) in 2023. Tua has detractors because he is not a truly special talent, but his pinpoint accuracy and ability to get the ball out quickly on a consistent basis make Tagovailoa a near-picturesque fit for HC Mike McDaniel’s system. Tua’s negligible dual threat nevertheless severely caps his fantasy ceiling; he’s averaged just 4.8 rushing yards per game in two seasons under McDaniel. Tagovailoa is a low-end QB1 at best.
Tyreek Hill enters his age-30 campaign showing no signs of slowdown while having all but cemented himself as the NFL’s best wideout after leading the league in 2023 receiving yards (1,799) and TDs (13). He’s cleared 170 targets in both seasons with McDaniel, ranking top three in the league each year. More than most coaches, McDaniel specializes in forcing the football to his best players. And his best player is, obviously, Tyreek. This season, I’m ranking Hill and CeeDee Lamb neck and neck for fantasy’s overall WR1. Just flip a coin.
Jaylen Waddle signed a three-year, $84.75 million extension in late May, guaranteeing him $76 million while affirming the Dolphins’ confidence in Waddle despite a 2023 campaign marred by nagging injuries. A high ankle sprain cost Waddle the Fins’ final two regular-season games and rendered him ineffective in their playoff loss to Kansas City. Still only 25 years old — he turns 26 around Thanksgiving — Waddle led the NFL in yards per catch (18.1) in 2022 and remains a house-call threat whenever he touches the ball. He’s something of a buy-low target following last year’s step back. I love him at the second-/third-round turn.
Odell Beckham began the offseason penciled in as Miami’s No. 3 receiver but didn’t practice for the first several weeks of camp due to an undisclosed injury. 28-year-old slot type/returner Braxton Berrios and sixth-round rookie Malik Washington would be next in line for sub-package wideout playing time should Beckham be unavailable. 5-foot-8, 191 but explosive (4.47 forty, 42.5-inch vertical), Washington is a dynasty prospect to take fairly seriously. He reeled in 110 balls for 1,426 yards and nine TDs as a senior at Virginia.
Jonnu Smith is Miami’s lone tight end of fantasy interest after signing a two-year, $8.4 million deal ($4 million guaranteed). He delivered an under-the-radar 50/582/3 receiving line in Atlanta last season and has long excelled after the catch, a characteristic HC Mike McDaniel religiously seeks in pass catchers. To make any real box-score impact, Smith still must likely oust incumbent TE Durham Smythe, who McDaniel values as a blocker.
Running Game Outlook
Raheem Mostert enters his age-32 campaign coming off a career year in which he led the NFL in rushing TDs on the back of career highs in carries (209) and rushing yards (1,012). Undrafted out of Purdue in 2015, this will be Mostert’s 10th NFL season. While Mostert’s place in Miami’s running back rotation is secure pending health, the Fins seem highly likely to aim to increase second-year gamebreaker De’Von Achane’s role and traded up to draft Jaylen Wright. Mostert figures to offer RB2 value early but could fade as 2024 progresses.
De’Von Achane was limited to 11 appearances as a rookie by shoulder and knee sprains but was electrifying on the field. He posted touches/yards/TDs totals of 22/233/4 (Week 3), 11/120/2 (Week 4), 16/165/1 (Week 5), 20/103/2 (Week 13), and 18/137/1 (Week 17) while averaging an absurd 7.8 yards per carry and scoring 11 times on just 130 touches over the course of the year. At 5-foot-9/188 with 4.32 wheels, Achane conjures memories of ex-Titans RB Chris Johnson. I’m willing to draft Achane aggressively at the first-/second-round turn.
Jaylen Wright arrived in Miami when the Fins sent their 2025 third-round pick to Philly to select Wright in 2024’s fourth round. Rough around the edges with pass-pro and ball-security flags, Wright’s physical abilities are in zero doubt with 4.38 jets at 5-foot-11/210. He averaged a silly 7.4 yards on 137 carries at Tennessee in his final college season. Wright has a big talent advantage over Jeff Wilson and Salvon Ahmed for Dolphins No. 3 back duties.
2024 Win Total
The Dolphins’ Win Total at DraftKings Sportsbook is 9.5 with -135 to the over and +115 to the under. Sharp Football Analysis pegged Miami’s 2024 schedule eighth easiest in the NFL, while offensive-minded Mike McDaniel’s team boasts impressive continuity on his side of the ball. The same can’t be said on defense with Anthony Weaver replacing Vic Fangio as play-caller and significant personnel turnover. I’m largely indifferent on betting either side of Miami’s wins but would lean toward over 9.5 if forced to choose.
