Welcome to the first playoff edition of GPP Leverage. This article is going to be a catch-all space for my GPP thoughts. In every article I’ll address some of the relevant GPP plays for that day’s slate, but some of the articles will be more focused on plays and others more focused on strategy. Today is going to be a slate-specific article, while the next GPP Leverage article this week will focus on recency bias.
Some of the most popular questions I get each day when we do our live show revolves around groupings and rules that I’m utilizing for my MME play. Today, we’re going to go through some of those tiers more specifically, but we always want to focus on the process over the outcome. It’s more important for you to learn the thought process behind these groups than what the groups are. The more you can develop these concepts on your own, the more success you’ll have as a GPP player.
Slate Overview
Let’s start with a general overview of the slate. The macro environment impacts the groups we set so let’s take a look at the landscape we’re working with on Tuesday’s slate. As a reminder, this content is all geared towards the full 4-game slate. Every slate type requires different rules, so many of these would not be applicable on the 2-game late slate.
This is a slate with five players priced above $10,000 and all five are pretty strong plays. This is a slate with a slew of upper-mid-tier values but only a few clear values. Many of the values on the slate are the fragile low volume/pure punt type plays. It’s a slate where we’re going to have to make some uncomfortable plays. As a result, our GPP lineups need to be cognizant of the salary strain on them in this environment. Since there is more competition at the top of the pricing spectrum, it will be more difficult for expensive teammates to avoid cannibalizing one another. Since there are fewer clear values available, ownership is going to condense. When ownership condenses on fragile plays, it’s an opportunity to get contrarian. Off-the-radar cheap plays are more viable on this slate than many others because the opportunity cost isn’t as high.
Groups and Rules
Group 1: Max 2 of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton, and Brook Lopez
Group 2: Max 2 of Nikola Vucevic, Markelle Fultz, James Ennis, and Aaron Gordon
The Bucks are 12-point favorites with a slate leading 118.75 implied total. The Bucks typically have played more balanced rotations during the regular season which manages the minutes of their stars. If the Bucks implement a tighter playoff rotation, there is a lot of value to be had here. The challenge is it’s hard to envision how the Magic force those tighter playoff rotations. As a result, we’re relying on efficiency over volume (on playing time) to get there. We need to manage our exposure to the Bucks overall. Lineups with Giannis Antetokounmpo are going to be stretched to hit with Khris Middleton given their price tags. Eric Bledsoe and Brook Lopez are probably cheap enough to get there together and one of them can be tagged alongside Giannis or Middleton, but you need to be careful overall. This max 2 rule covers all the bases.
On the Magic side of things, the Aaron Gordon questionable tag could certainly open up a lot more volume, but this is a difficult spot to get excited about. The Magic have the second-lowest implied total on the slate (106.25) and the way their best targets score (in the paint) matches up poorly with Milwaukee’s elite interior defense. Any lineup with two Magic players should probably have at least one Milwaukee player coming back. Most lineups should be limited to one Magic primary scorer, but if Gordon misses the game there is a path for the cheaper plays to serve a purpose on a slate without much value. The guy who will get booted most frequently as a result of these rules is Nikola Vucevic.
Group 3: Max 2 Pacers overall
Group 4: Max 2 Goran Dragic, Jimmy Butler, and Bam Adebayo
Group 5: Max 2 Jae Crowder, Andre Iguodala, and Duncan Robinson
Group 6: Max 3 Miami Heat overall
The lowest total game on the slate by 10 points (215) is one that has a lot of the value available on the slate. It’s a tricky place to create rules and one where you need to be thoughtful. On the Pacers side of the equation as long as TJ Warren plays, we can keep things pretty tight here. A max 2 of Pacers is a great rule overall, but you can even consider a Max 1. The Pacers offense should run almost entirely through Malcolm Brogdon, T.J. Warren, and Myles Turner. All three are priced up enough that it will be hard not to cannibalize each other’s upside without overtime. We did see the Pacers play really tight rotations in the seeding games and get guys like Warren and Brogdon up to 40 minutes so there’s opportunity here for the condensed rotation but the upside in the game environment is difficult to get there for multiple upper-mid-tier Pacers.
The Heat side is one of the most challenging on the slate, especially on DraftKings where Goran Dragic is egregiously priced. The Heat are a deeper team and depending on how they intend to use Kendrick Nunn, they could still play an 8-man rotation or even 9 if they include Hill or Herro in the rotation. IF the Heat do this, even all these cheap guys are vulnerable. If the Heat play a tighter 7-8 man rotation, then there is a ton of value to be had. Historically, I’ve maxed two of the Heat’s guards (Butler, Nunn, Herro, Robinson, Dragic) because the ball-handling responsibilities cannibalize each other. But if the rotation gets condensed, there is a path with these really cheap price tags. So instead, I’m going to max 2 of Adebayo, Butler, and Dragic. In addition, I’m going to limit my exposure to the cheap wings that I think could potentially cannibalize each other’s playing time or are all vulnerable to a deeper rotation. Crowder, Iguodala, and Robinson could all get there and if they do, it will provide immense value but it’s probably fragile. Iguodala is the only guy who can initiate offense of the three and in the playoffs the ball should be in the hands of Butler, Dragic, and Adebayo heavily. All three of the Heat cheap guys providing upside to win a GPP seems very unlikely.
Group 7: Max 3 Houston Rockets
Group 8: Max 2 of Chris Paul, Dennis Schroder, Danilo Gallinari, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, possibly straight Max 3 all OKC on FanDuel
Group 9: Max 1 of Nerlens Noel and Steven Adams
Typically, I’d max 2 of the Houston secondary players (Covington, Tucker, McLemore, House, Green, and Rivers) as Harden assumes so much of the production that it’s difficult for the role players even at modest prices to get there. With Harden projecting so well, a simple max 3 of the Rockets players probably gets the grouping done more efficiently today.
I’m very high on the Thunder and I think there are good price tags on the Thunder pieces throughout. I typically max 2 of the Thunder scorers and I’m going to reluctantly keep that rule today. I think there are paths in this matchup against the Rockets and you consider just maxing 3 overall of the Thunder which would allow three of the scorers together but not with Adams. The challenge is the mid-tier price tags probably require 40+ fantasy points from three guys. This is less of a concern on FanDuel where winning the position is more important than raw points so you may consider going to straight Max 3 of the Thunder on FanDuel.
Nerlens Noel might come into play on FanDuel where PF is really thin but you want to make sure if you’re taking stabs on the cheap value it’s not paired with Steven Adams. The two can’t play together, especially against Houston, and thus cannibalize each other’s upside.
Group 10: Max 2 of Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic, Carmelo Anthony, and C.J. McCollum
Group 11: Max 1 of Anthony Davis and LeBron James (DK specific)
Group 12: Max 1 of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Alex Caruso, and Danny Green
Group 13: Max 1 of Mario Hezonja, Hassan Whiteside, and Wenyen Gabriel
Group 14: Max 1 of Hassan Whiteside or Jusuf Nurkic
This is the most compelling game environment on the slate and the one where I think rules need the most consideration. We’ll start with the Blazers who have played really condensed rotations all throughout the bubble. The absence of Zach Collins is going to put pressure on that power forward spot and while they’ll start Wenyen Gabriel they did this in the second half and he played just 6-7 minutes. We’re projecting 15 which makes him a fringe play. The minutes could also get absorbed by Hassan Whiteside (an interesting upside GPP candidate) or Mario Hezonja. Although all three are cheap, the Blazers aren’t going to allow two of those guys to play a lot together unless Jusuf Nurkic gets into foul trouble. We think a Max 1 of the group makes the most sense to manage exposure but if you were to play more liberally you could remove Whiteside from that group. We’d still manage Max 1 of Nurkic/Whiteside even if they play more minutes together. The two are constantly competing for the same interior touches and rebounds. Given the elevated price tags on the Blazers studs and the pricing on this slate, you might even consider a Max 1 of the top tier scorers, but Max 2 should at the minimum be used.
On the Lakers side, the LeBron-Davis combo can certainly get there together in an elite matchup but the slate pricing has to be loose enough or the positional requirements stringent enough for those two to both beat the other three expensive plays on the slate. I think this is the case on FanDuel where SF and PF are thinner and SG is loaded, but on DraftKings I think it’s more difficult to envision the two of them outscoring Harden, Giannis, Lillard by a good margin. It’s possible, but unlikely so we’d consider a rule there.
The secondary Lakers plays are going to get good opportunities and its a great game environment to target for cheap plays. We think it’s unlikely that more than one of them delivers a GPP-winning performance though so we’d limit the Caruso-Green-KCP group to a max 1.
Contrarian Cheap Plays
One area that I noted in the overview was the possibility of chasing some contrarian cheap plays. The place that is most interesting to target here is Milwaukee. The Bucks typically play deeper rotations and they’re huge favorites. It’s difficult to figure out how those backup minutes play out but we know there is cheap opportunity. We would always max 1 of these cheap guys but George Hill, Pat Connaughton, Donte DiVincenzo, and Marvin Williams are the players we’re currently projecting for those minutes. Hill and Williams have the more established roles. We think Kyle Korver will play some but not enough to warrant any upside. DiVincenzo and Connaughton feel more likely to benefit from pure blowout. These are smaller percentage plays in MME builds but ones that make sense and create a lot of leverage on this slate if you can find 25 fantasy points from someone.
