Dynasty Outlook
April 9
Dotson is a second-round target for rookie drafts, and is WR54 in our overall dynasty ranks. He is a difficult valuation given that — at the current time — he is expected to receive first-round draft capital. Especially if he were to wind up on one of the WR-needy teams like Kansas City or Green Bay, that could become quite the opportunity. Meanwhile, his profile is not what we look for typically at the position. Dotson was a four-year player who broke out in Year 3, and is undersized. We are comfortable right now being lower than consensus.
Profile Summary
Jahan Dotson had a mixed career while at Penn State. He was a minimal producer in his first two seasons before becoming a dominant target within the offense over his final two years. Dotson is smaller than most successful receivers at the NFL level, and did not test as a superior athlete. He appears likely to be a first-round pick, which could afford him some opportunity right away. The scouts like Dotson’s hands and competitiveness, while expressing doubts about his play strength.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/21) — 21.8
Experience — 4 years
Height — 70.625 inches
Weight — 178 pounds
Hand Size — 9.5 inches
Arm Length — 30.75 inches
Wingspan — 74 inches
Forty — 4.43 seconds
Bench — 13 reps (pro day)
Vertical — 36 inches
Broad — 121 inches
3-cone — 7.28 seconds
By the Numbers
Dotson got off to a very slow start at Penn State, playing behind WRs such as K.J. Hamler, Juwan Johnson, and DeAndre Thompkins. As a sophomore, Johnson and Thompkins were gone, and his production improved despite also having to contend with Pat Freiermuth.
In 2020, Hamler was gone, and Dotson became a high-level producer — experiencing a true breakout. He returned in 2021, continuing that production. For a smaller WR with supposed high-end athleticism, it was surprising to not see more rush volume from Dotson, though it is worth noting that many teams around college football have moved to jet tosses instead of handoffs. Dotson did have experience in the punt return game.
What the Scouts are Saying
Daniel Jeremiah noted play strength concerns, but overall, appears to be bullish on Dotson:
Dotson is a slightly undersized wideout (5-11, 184) with outstanding quickness, deep speed, and hands. He is a very fluid, loose route runner with the ability to accelerate in and out of breaks. He tracks the ball beautifully down the field and has another gear if needed. He attacks the ball and makes some outstanding catches away from his frame. After the catch, Dotson has the speed to pull away and makes defenders miss tackles with his elusiveness. He doesn’t have the strength to break tackles consistently. His overall play strength is the only real concern with his transition to the next level, but he has the ability to produce both outside and in the slot. Dotson is ready to make an immediate impact for his drafting team.
Dane Brugler agreed with much of what Jeremiah had to say:
Dotson puts defenders in conflict with his twitchy speed to defeat press and manipulate coverages at the stem. Although he is undersized, he has above-average hands and natural body control with maybe the largest catch radius of any sub 5-foot-11 receiver I have ever scouted. Dotson isn’t a tackle-breaker, and his marginal play strength will be more noticeable vs. NFL defenders, but his dynamic speed, route instincts, and ball skills make him a difficult player to cover one-on-one.
Lance Zierlein continues to echo the concerns over physicality:
Finesse wideout with good speed and great athleticism who is fully operational on all three levels of the field. Dotson’s passing scheme was well-designed and allowed for clear access to space for most of the season. His route-running is smooth but features speed changes and his in-air athleticism and ball skills look effortless. His confidence and competitiveness are just average against physical coverage and he’s likely to see a lot more press looks as a pro. Dotson has inside/outside starting talent, but a lack of physicality could prevent him from taking over games at the same rate we saw at Penn State.
Draft Projection
Dotson currently has an expected draft position of 29 on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. Mock Draft Database is a similar service that has Dotson 30th overall. He goes 28th in Jeremiah’s latest mock, and 22nd in Todd McShay’s latest. Dotson appears likely to be selected in the latter stages of Round 1.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate WR prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable WRs in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
The first thing that stands out is how many of Dotson’s comps have better age and experience profiles. Jaylen Waddle, Jerry Jeudy, and Will Fuller are the three most optimistic comparisons, but all three were only three-year players, while Dotson played four. Similar to Chris Olave, it would be difficult to claim that these outcomes are most likely for Dotson. In fact, Olave is Dotson’s top comp when including the 2022 rookie class.
The rest of his comps are not particularly enticing. Sterling Shepard and Ted Ginn had spurts of fantasy production, but nothing sustained. His teammate, Hamler, makes the list, but remains a relative unknown (and is another three-year player). The other players were all busts.
