NBA Matchups: January 19

San Antonio Spurs (front end) at Charlotte Hornets (front end)

Team Totals: Spurs 115.5, Hornets 120

Injury Report: Victor Wembanyama (O, rest)

Spurs projected starters: Tre Jones, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Jeremy Sochan, Victor Wembanyama

Hornets projected starters: LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Brandon Miller, Miles Bridges, Nick Richards

Pop quotes: Said Boston kicked their ass, asked if a reporter was on drugs for asking about the second quarter, said Wemby’s limit is 24-27 now, said it’s not important to win but they have to execute better, said if someone can’t handle them losing “then they’ll be gone”.

Clifford quotes: Said Nick Richards did a good job down low (was super short in TV segment).

Stats and Notes: 

*The Spurs missing Victor Wembanyama is a pretty big deal on both ends. On paper for the defense, there’s not a big difference for the Spurs from a D rating standpoint. However, they’re just so much more vulnerable to giving up interior scoring without Wemby down there to protect the paint. Overall, the Spurs have some terrible perimeter defense, ranking fourth in PNR handler points and PPP. They’re also in the bottom 10 for dribble-jumper points allowed and transition. On offense, there’s a massive difference with Wemby taking on one of the largest usage rates in the league to start 2024 with his 36.3 usage rate (Luka, Embiid, and LaMelo the only guys with more). That’s going to be good news for the volume headed to the other players (more on that shortly). You guys all know the deal with the Hornets, and we’ve seen their offense get better and their defense get worse with LaMelo. The Hornets have been quite bad on offense since LaMelo returned, but we can throw that out for now. The Hornets are one of the worst teams at limiting spot-up points, they get destroyed inside and on the boards, and they have the league’s worst PPP on jumpers overall. Bad defense all around, and I don’t think Zach Collins returning would change much for the San Antonio defense.

*Tre Jones should be in an extremely favorable spot. Sure, he won’t get LaMelo Ball to start the game (Ball should be on Champagnie), but Jones should see plenty of Ball in this matchup. Jones has seen his usage stay pretty low, but that should change without Wemby. There’s not too much upside on the scoring, but Jones does have 15.7 potential assists in the last three games. He could certainly put up a double-double in this excellent matchup. You can basically say the same thing about Keldon Johnson with his interior scoring mixed with his team-high C&S stuff, but he just doesn’t have the minutes ceiling Vassell has. It’s basically open season on the Spurs’ perimeter guys.

*Devin Vassell should see some Terry Rozier, and he is likely the biggest beneficiary from no Wemby. Since Christmas, Vassell has a 24.4 usage rate without Wemby on the court, and the Hornets just get pummeled by high-end scorers. He might have the highest upside on the team.

*Zach Collins has a chance to return in this spot, and he returns in the best matchup possible. We’ve seen centers just punish the Hornets, and it’ll just come down to how many minutes he’s going to play. If he’s out, Dom Barlow would likely be one of the best cheap plays on the slate.

*LaMelo Ball is almost full from a minutes standpoint. He got to 31.3 minutes last game and lost 3:30 to garbage time, so he could have a chance at close to 36 minutes in his fourth game back from injury. LaMelo is thriving from a role perspective with only Joel Embiid and Luka Doncic having more usage than him in 2024 (among rotation guys). He’s still holding up in touch time at 7.1 minutes and 13.0 potential assists in the last two games. The Spurs don’t really have anyone who can lock him down and they’re very prone to jump-shooters and transition players. This might be the best spot possible for LaMelo.

*Terry Rozier is also in a pretty decent spot here. Even with LaMelo trending up, Rozier is still getting there from a role perspective with 11.0 potential assists and a 25.8 usage rate. Rozier has been one of the league’s best on-ball players, ranking first in the NBA at 1.16 PPP in PNR among the 163 guys with more than 30 possessions. The Spurs should be so bad defensively that multiple players can get there. I’m more into Melo, but Rozier could also go off.

*Miles Bridges has also been hanging some decent numbers, putting up a 27.8 usage rate in the last game and a 22.3 two games ago. Miles is still driving a good bit, and the Hornets are so condensed with Miles, Melo, and Rozier being the only guys who are carrying this offense. He likely has the tougher matchup with Jeremy Sochan on him, but Bridges is playing enough that it should lead to some big upside.

*Nick Richards was able to return from his ankle injury, so you’d think he has a pretty decent chance he’s in there. If he doesn’t play, that should be good news for P.J. Washington. He may not start because Clifford loves him off the bench, and he does have a foot issue that’s kept his minutes in check a little. If Nathan Mensah starts, he’d be a very dicey play.

Great matchups: LaMelo Ball, Tre Jones, Devin Vassell, Zach Collins/Dom Barlow

Good matchups: Keldon Johnson, Miles Bridges, Terry Rozier

Bad matchups: Nobody

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Philadelphia 76ers (front end) at Orlando Magic