After back-to-back seasons with the same HC, OC, and QB trio — a spring football rarity — St. Louis will usher in a new offensive coordinator and quarterback under the guidance of third-year head coach Anthony Becht, following the offseason departures of OC Bruce Gradkowski and QB A.J. McCarron.
Fortunately, newly-minted OC Phil McGeoghan was an internal hire after serving as the team’s WR coach in 2024 under Gradkowski and Becht. Though we expect McGeoghan to maintain a similarly pass-heavy approach to the one deployed under Gradkowski during his tenure, we have to acknowledge that coaching-staff changes coupled with revolving offensive personnel — particularly under center — does bring with it a widened range of play-calling outcomes. In 2023, St. Louis was ultra pass-centric, ranking second in the XFL in situation-neutral pass rate (65.4%) and second in overall pass rate (69.5%) behind only June Jones’ (70.7%) Air Raid offense. In 2024, however, Gradkowski and Co. opted for slightly more balanced run/pass splits, dropping back at just a 58.1% clip. With one of the league’s most veteran signal-callers no longer on the sideline, it’s reasonable to expect an offensive approach that more closely resembles their 2024 rates.
All signs point to a true open competition in training camp for the QB1 job between Manny Wilkins, Max Duggan, and Chevan Cordeiro with Becht suggesting that a final decision will likely come all the way down to the end of training camp. Wilkins served as McCarron’s backup for the last two seasons, appearing in five games in 2024 where he completed just 54.0% of his passes for 6.1 YPA but excelled with his legs, adding a 24/141/3 rushing line. Regardless of who ultimately earns the starting job, rushing upside is a consistent theme with St. Louis’ triumvirate of quarterbacks and likely adds a wrinkle to the Battlehawks’ offense we didn’t see with a traditional pocket passer at the helm. Duggan was a four-year starter at TCU, where he put up big numbers, completing 60.3% of his passes for 7.9 YPA and a 73:28 TD:INT ratio, adding 396/2,496/28 as a runner, excluding sack yardage. Duggan struggled mightily as a passer at the next level, completing just 52.6% of his passes for 3.9 YPA in NFL preseason action with the Chargers, but he showed flashes of that same rushing upside he possessed at the collegiate level. Cordeiro might have the widest range of outcomes of the three and, as Becht notes, is coming from a different offensive system and has less experience than his counterparts. Whoever ultimately wins the starting job will be on our DFS radars given the rushing upside each possesses, the structure of the Battlehawks’ offense, and, maybe most importantly, the supporting cast of skill-position weapons surrounding them.
Chief among those weapons, Hakeem Butler is back for his third season with St. Louis after earning back-to-back All-league honors and being named the UFL’s Offensive Player of the Year in 2024. A 6-foot-4, 227-pound receiver, Butler has no issue winning at this level on physical traits alone, using his frame to provide a big target that resulted in a team-high 24.1% target share and 34.2% Air Yards share last season and a 21.6% target share and 23.1% Air Yards share the year prior. Deployed as a ‘Big Slot’ in St. Louis’ offense, Butler routinely generates mismatches that most UFL quarterbacks can exploit. No longer catching passes from one of spring football’s most prolific passers, there are some efficiency concerns, but we’re confident talent and volume will win out, making him one of fantasy’s most valuable assets.
The offseason departures of Marcell Ateman, Darrius Shepherd, and Steven Mitchell mean that St. Louis will have to replace 32.9% of their 2024 targets and usher in a new cast of receivers for a trio that ran routes on 74.6%, 80.1%, and 75.5% of dropbacks, respectively. Enter Andy Isabella and Denzel Mims, who were both signed in the offseason after spending time on NFL practice squads. In his final two collegiate seasons, Isabella split time between the slot (32.5%) and on the perimeter (59.5%), but as a Battlehawk, we think he’ll mostly operate on the boundary, where he should have a chance to put his 4.31 40-yard dash speed to good use. Another former second-round pick, Mims profiles as a traditional X receiver that can operate on the perimeter while Butler and Jahcour Pearson man the slot. A 6-foot-3, 207-pound wideout, Mims took nearly all of his NFL preseason snaps from the boundary, and with Ateman and Shepherd out of town, he should have a chance to immediately earn a full-time role in the offense.
Other options like Frank Darby, Jelani Baker, James Bostic, or Gary Jennings could emerge but most likely will settle in as game-day inactives or depth options behind the team’s quartet of top projected pass catchers. Jerome Kapp was with the team last season but served as a special teams specialist and isn’t likely to earn offensive opportunities, and Blake Jackson looked entrenched as a backup slot receiver to Pearson when he was healthy last year. Further clearing up the target hierarchy, St. Louis has hardly utilized their tight ends as receivers with Jake Sutherland and Kemari Averett combining for just 21 total targets in 2024.
Becht didn’t turn over the keys of the backfield to Jacob Saylors last season until Week 4. But once he did, there was really no looking back, as the 2024 All-UFL selection would go on to handle a 55.6% rush share and 13.1% target share over the team’s final eight games, averaging 15.6 total opportunities in those games. Now with Mataeo Durant and Wayne Gallman gone, along with a year in the offense under his belt, we expect Saylors to open as the Week 1 starter pushing for bellcow-type volume immediately. However, there are still a few competing factors which may hinder Saylors’ fantasy outlook. First, whoever ends up serving as the team’s starting QB will be a bigger rushing threat than McCarron was, resulting in fewer checkdown targets and more competition for touches at or near the goal line. Additionally, it’s reasonable to expect the league’s second-highest-scoring offense from a season ago will regress some in 2025 with a new QB, resulting in fewer scoring opportunities and less favorable game scripts. Still, we anticipate Saylors being one of the safer sources of fantasy production at the RB position in a league that is filled with committees.
