The main topic of debate for the Week 10 main slate was the inclusion of the James Madison vs. Georgia State game, and how to handle the poor pricing within that game. This slate also introduced a few chalk plays that I thought were not even in play for cash (which has not really happened this season so far). Let’s walk through each position and then discuss the results.
QUARTERBACK
I thought the position was pretty shallow for a main slate, and there weren’t any cheap options (under $7,000) that I felt great about except maybe an underwhelming Alan Bowman at $6,200. Pretty early in the week, I was set on playing two of Dillon Gabriel, Jordan McCloud, and Darren Grainger. While I wanted Gabriel, he was priced up and I did not want to sacrifice elsewhere because I was fine with playing Grainger if needed due to his rushing upside. Also, after last week’s Oklahoma disaster, probably a bit subconsciously I was less willing to force the construction to get up to his salary.
RUNNING BACK
Ollie Gordon was stupid cheap for his role, so I was always playing the bruising back for Oklahoma State at $7,200. Going into Saturday, Jawhar Jordan was firmly my second choice at the position. However, reports emerged Saturday morning that he was battling both a hamstring and wrist injury, and that he was a game-time decision. With the risk of those injuries, I downgraded Jordan and he was not someone I was going to play in cash.
Given the upside (in terms of touches at least) of the top running backs on the slate, I certainly wanted to play three running backs. The stable of backs in consideration for me were Jonathon Brooks, Treyveon Henderson, Phil Mafah, and Emmanuel Michel. Given the pricing dynamics and what I was trying to do at WR, Mafah and Henderson made the most sense. Jonathon Brooks was super solid, but his $7,800 price tag made things a bit tricky elsewhere and the matchup was not ideal. I certainly would have played Brooks straight up over Henderson, but I sided with the cost savings. Michel projected decently, but service academy games often go off script and he is a bit too touchdown-reliant for me in cash on most slates (given zero pass-game role).
WIDE RECEIVER
The terrible pricing of JMU receivers locked Reggie Brown and Chase Surratt into my lineup without much thought or consideration of fading (unless the early window went really poorly and I needed to late swap to add differentials). The group that I was looking at for third wide receiver was Robert Lewis, Nic Anderson, Jalil Farooq, Rashod Owens, and Eugene Wilson III. With the arrest of Farooq, I pretty much decided if I was going with an OU guy, it would be Nic Anderson at the same price point (just because there was some risk with Farooq in terms of an in-game punishment). Wilson III was someone who I wanted to play, but I just could not click him in over one of the OU guys, who I thought were in a much better game environment. I did not think Robert Lewis was much better than the other options, so I certainly was not going to force it with another Georgia State player.
Rashod Owens was in my lineup Friday night before the Jawhar news, but once we got Will Shipley ruled out and the news on Jordan, it was pretty comfortable to just play Phil Mafah and then move Rashod Owens to Nic Anderson, who I thought had more upside, and I did not have to deal with sorting out the Oklahoma State wide receiver availability.
RESULTS
With Jordan McCloud over 50% owned in the double-up, it was difficult to cash without him considering he dropped 55 fantasy points and none of the other chalk quarterback options exceeded 30. I called Kyron Drones the worst play of the slate on ETS: The College Years and Sean tried to berate me for that sentiment, but I was happy to see him over 20% owned in cash games and he faceplanted with just two points. Grainger ran extremely well to get 28 considering how much JMU dominated the game. Gabriel pulled over 40% ownership in this double-up and failed with only 18 points. A lot of points were left on the table in Bedlam, so I think it was just a variance thing. If you played this slate 10 times, I am pretty confident he beats Grainger at least 60-70% of the time.
Obviously I ran extremely well on my three running back plays, as all three exceeded 30 points and had a huge number of touches. They were three of the top four highest-owned running backs, so you certainly were in trouble if you opted to deviate from that group. I was surprised that Mafah got that much work on the ground and wasn’t involved much in the passing game. Brooks yet again ran a bit under expectation, so, at $7,800, that was a rough result. Marcus Carroll, who I also did not like at all in cash this week, grabbed over 20% ownership and failed to exceed 10 points.
Reggie Brown was nearly 80% owned, so he did not matter much in double-ups, but he only put up two points despite JMU scoring a boatload of points and being on the field all game. He certainly was a guy who wrecked a lot of tournament lineups and helped out those who were willing to fade him. The next wave of receivers in terms of ownership put up some decent points for a change with Wilson dropping 29 and Owens hitting 26. Nic Anderson only had 12, but he was a potential 70-yard touchdown drop away from joining that group in the 20s. I was surprised to see Luther Burden nearly 15% owned against Georgia, but there was plenty of value on the slate to justify some spends that you usually cannot make at wide receiver in cash.
I am pretty happy with how I reacted to pieces of news this week, as playing Mafah was pretty much the key to the slate. I do think I got very lucky on Grainger, but in retrospect, there is not a different quarterback option that I think I should have played. I wish the pricing was better on JMU wide receivers, as it would have made the slate more enjoyable and opened up various options and combinations in cash, but everyone is playing the same slate, so we just have to deal with it.
After a rough one last week, I’ll gladly take the positive result this week. Back at it next week. Thanks for reading!
Season Results in Largest Single-Entry $5 Double-Up:
Week 0: 87th-percentile lineup (W)
Week 1: 12th-percentile lineup (L)
Week 2: 49th-percentile lineup (L)
Week 3: 33rd-percentile lineup (L)
Week 4: 92nd-percentile lineup (W)
Week 5: 42nd-percentile lineup (L)
Week 6: 64th-percentile lineup (W)
Week 7: 77th-percentile lineup (W)
Week 8: 83rd-percentile lineup (W)
Week 9: 34th-percentile lineup (L)
Week 10: 97th-percentile lineup (W)
