Week 8 brought chaos on game day, as we got some unexpected news with only minutes before lock. Let’s talk through what happened, how I responded to various pieces of news, and then look at how it all played out.
Quarterback
I was pretty set on playing Kurtis Rourke on this slate because he was simply mispriced compared to others at the position. He was a home favorite with a 30+ point team total versus a team that plays with pace and has a terrible defense. Despite his inconsistent play and Ohio being frustratingly slow on offense, Rourke was cemented into my lineup.
Beyond Rourke, Garrett Greene is who I initially wanted to play on the slate. However, we started to hear rumblings later in the week that Will Rogers was likely to miss, which would mean $5,200 Mike Wright would be getting the start. Also, the weather in Morgantown did not look ideal (although it was better on game day than the forecast a few days before). Dillon Gabriel was my preferred pay-up option at QB, but I did not think I would be able to get up to him unless Memphis RB Blake Watson was out and we were able to lock in $4,000 Sutton Smith. I did think Wright was a pretty solid cash option due to his price and rushing floor, so going into Saturday morning, I was planning on playing Rourke and Wright with the option to swap to Dillon Gabriel if we got news that Watson was out.
In an odd twist, Watson ended up warming up like normal, so that dream was dashed. However, 30 minutes before lock, we got news that Oklahoma RB Tawee Walker was not warming up. What that did initially was make Marcus Major an interesting tournament play. Then about 10 minutes later, we got news that Major was battling a shoulder issue and was likely very limited (or may not even play). With Jovante Barnes not expected to be back, that would throw Gavin Sawchuk (who has missed a lot of the season with injury) into the lead-back role with not much playable depth behind him. I thought he was a good play that could be a great play if Major did not play. At his $4,100 price tag, that basically got me where I needed to be on the Sutton Smith swap lineup I had planned (except he was $100 more, so it would have to be a WR swap also, which we will get to). The trickle-down effect there is that I was able to play Dillon Gabriel at the second quarterback spot (while dropping Franklin down to Farooq at WR and making another WR pivot $100 cheaper), which made me feel much better about the lineup overall.
Running Back
The position was quite loaded this week with Bucky Irving, Jonathon Brooks, Jermaine Brown, Ollie Gordon, Braelon Allen, Emmanuel Michel, and Blake Watson all viable plays. Even cheaper guys like Rashod Dubinion and Kaden Feagin were in play. Given the question marks on Watson’s health, he was deprioritized because even if he was healthy, he would not separate from this tier. With how the lineup was shaking out, it was basically pick two of the $7K running backs and then work through combinations beyond that. It was definitely a three-running back week though; that much was made up.
Bucky Irving and Jonathan Brooks were my preferred options, as both offenses were in favorable spots with huge team totals, which was appealing. Ollie Gordon and Braelon Allen had less appealing matchups and less certainty for workload, respectively — although I was playing a good amount of both in tournaments.
I was planning on playing Jermaine Brown as my third running back, but once we had the Sawchuk option, I pivoted off of him. This was also an easier move to make due to UAB’s QB, Jacob Zeno, being out, which introduced more systemic risk to their offense overall.
Wide Receiver
There was no slam-dunk $3,500 WR like last week, but this slate did feature a number of decent mid-range options that you could mix and match depending on what you did at QB and RB. Troy Franklin was the one stud wideout that was on my radar, and he was certainly someone I was likely to play if I played both cheap QBs (Rourke and Wright).
In the mid-range, Demeer Blankumsee was my preferred option, as I was locked into playing one Memphis WR (him or Roc Taylor) and Taylor was $1,100 more expensive. Beyond that, Jalil Farooq was my favorite option around the $6K price point, as I thought Oklahoma would pile on the points versus UCF. With Andrel Anthony out, Farooq is now the de facto go-to receiver for the Sooners. I liked Amare Thomas a bit more before Zeno was ruled out, but I still thought he was in play because expected starter Landry Lyddy was more of a pocket guy who could heavily target the slot.
After reconfiguring my lineup post-Sawchuk news, I was $100 short of Amare Thomas, so I had to settle between Miles Cross or Rashod Owens, which, to me, was a bit of a coin flip. I decided to play Cross just because I felt his target floor was more stable and he had a slightly better matchup in my eyes.
Results
It’s funny how things end up. Last week I played Chip Trayanum in a last-minute news swap, who would have been an absolute workhorse, and he eats a concussion early in the first half. This week, Sawchuk did start, but Marcus Major was way more involved than I imagined and we got the late second-half Sawchuk touchdown to get there. Sometimes that is just how it goes. Looking back at the situation, I think the swap was fine considering the information we had, but there were certainly paths where it would not have worked out. Much like other frustrating teams like Utah and Ohio State, Oklahoma’s running back position just always seems to have a ton of workload variance. If you were going to tell me that Marcus Major was going to get 20 touches (which he did), there is no way I even consider touching Sawchuk, so Major’s limitations were certainly overblown. The Sawchuk touchdown was definitely a bailout.
The heavily-owned cash quarterbacks largely underperformed outside of Garrett Green, who was under 10% owned in the largest $5 double-up. Rourke was mega-chalk at 72% in this contest and his 18.3 fantasy points were certainly solid. Gabriel, Henigan, and Wright all were subpar in terms of output, but none of them really prevented you from cashing on their own.
The running back position put up some big scores, however, Ollie Gordon and his 55.2 fantasy points were only 5% owned, so he was not very relevant (although he made it hard not to cash if you did have him). Really the only highly-owned dud was Emmanuel Michel, who only put up 6.9 points — someone who we specifically mentioned as having a lower floor than the other cash options. Sawchuk was 18.5% owned in this contest, and his late touchdown certainly helped out those teams, as he almost equaled Jermaine Brown‘s score, who was $2,100 more and had 3x more ownership. I am actually a bit surprised by the ownership gap between Bucky Irving (40%) and Jonathon Brooks (85%), but certainly both were solid and Brooks definitely ran bad to only get 23 points. If you played three running backs in cash (which was almost certainly correct this week) and avoided Emmanuel Michel, you were generally in pretty good shape at the position.
Wide receiver was an absolute graveyard this week in terms of the high-owned plays, as none of the top three options in terms of ownership cracked 10 fantasy points (all Memphis-UAB game WRs). In addition, $8,200 Troy Franklin only put up 11.9 points at 26% ownership. I don’t really have any regrets about my wide receivers, even though the results were poor. I think I was correct to be mindful of how many UAB-Memphis WRs I played in my lineup, as I was certainly not playing both Memphis guys and I was quick to give up Amare Thomas when I was short on salary. You could survive getting dud performances from your cheap receivers, but getting 11 from Troy Franklin was likely more painful, as those lineups had more trouble getting up twice at running back and once at quarterback. That result is a bit of a reminder that high-end running backs are generally more stable than high-end wide receivers, something we need to weigh when determining where to allocate our salary cap.
Ultimately, I think my results were a bit better than my lineup deserved, so I felt fortunate to avoid a good amount of the landmines, run good on the late pivot, and be on my way to another winning week in DK main cash. Thanks for reading!
Season Results in Largest Single-Entry $5 Double-Up:
Week 0: 87th-percentile lineup (W)
Week 1: 12th-percentile lineup (L)
Week 2: 49th-percentile lineup (L)
Week 3: 33rd-percentile lineup (L)
Week 4: 92nd-percentile lineup (W)
Week 5: 42nd-percentile lineup (L)
Week 6: 64th-percentile lineup (W)
Week 7: 77th-percentile lineup (W)
Week 8: 83rd-percentile lineup (W)
