Saturday morning of Week 9 was absolutely insane, as the last hour before lock was loaded with slate-altering news that was challenging to process and forced most to make important decisions with very little time (or complete information). The pressure was ramped up for sure, so let’s talk through the decision points and then I’ll try to determine if I played good or bad, regardless of the actual results.
QUARTERBACK
My cash quarterbacks were pretty much always going to be two of Dillon Gabriel, Caleb Williams, Garrett Greene, and John Rhys Plumlee. I did not have any strong takes between the four other than I doubted I would end up on both Gabriel and Caleb (the two spend-ups). I did not think Caleb was necessarily worth the $1,200 premium between the two, so I was perfectly fine using Dillon Gabriel versus a Kansas defense that has not done much to slow down opponents this season. I had some slight concerns with Plumlee and his return from injury, but the fact he had a bulky knee brace was not overly concerning because you fully expect a quarterback returning from a knee injury to be wearing a brace. I liked what Garrett Greene had shown this season, but he was $900 more than JRP, so I was certainly fine using either depending on where the lineup went at other positions. Max Johnson had a solid price tag at $6,500 and this was a good matchup in theory, but I just could not seriously consider a low-upside Max Johnson when Plumlee was only $700 more.
RUNNING BACK
Jonathon Brooks came pre-loaded in every hand-built lineup this week, as he was the one player I thought was an absolute slam dunk. RJ Harvey was also a cash lock for me, as I never really considered not playing him. His nearly 20-touch-per-week role (both on the ground and in the passing game) was just too good to pass up for $6,200.
This was certainly a three-running back week for me and I was locked in on playing Le’Veon Moss for Texas A&M pretty much all week, so he was in my lineup up until the last 20 minutes or so before lock. We started getting news that several beats did not see Moss on the field, which is usually a glaring red flag that they won’t be available. This initiated a code red scramble mode where I was at least happy we got projections updated and a notification sent out within two minutes of the news coming out, leaving at least a solid 10 minutes to make lineup edits. If there was less time, I likely would have just global-swapped Moss to Reuben Owens (who was $900 cheaper), but there was just enough time to look through things a bit deeper.
We also got reports that WVU RB Justin Johnson was warming up with the starters, so at $3,900, he was pretty interesting versus a UCF defense that was 123rd nationally in rushing yards allowed per game. I also realized that if I played Johnson instead of Reuben Owens (in that Le’Veon Moss spot), I could move Oscar Delp to Taj Davis, which was really appealing.
Nicolas Singleton, Treshaun Ward, DJ Giddens, and Kaytron Allen were all in the cash-viable tier as well, but they were a bit more pricey and I was worried about the roles of those KSU and PSU backs. Ultimately, I was fine with the two priority guys and then taking a shot at a very cheap running back who could be in store for a larger role.
WIDE RECEIVER
I was pretty locked into playing an Oklahoma wide receiver and Nic Anderson was cheaper, so that was likely the path I was going, but beyond that, there was not much separating the cheaper options. In fact, wide receiver was quite terrible overall. It seems that almost all wide receivers that have true upside are priced at $6,500+, which is why when Nic Anderson is $5,800 it’s tough to pass on him.
Florida State receiver was also a source of a shake-up on Saturday morning, as they had three wideouts ruled out, which left them short-handed. I liked Keon Coleman, but his $7,000 tag was tough to get to with the QB and RBs I wanted. Jaheim Bell at $4,300 and Kentron Poitier at near-minimum prices seemed like the more reasonable options. I was a bit worried about clicking Poitier, as he has only one target on 60 routes run this season, which was not likely to continue but still something that was tough to get past.
California wideouts were solid as well versus a terrible USC defense, so I really wanted to get one of Taj Davis or Jeremiah Hunter. The $600 price difference made it such that Davis was the much more viable path (considering Davis’ role has been better lately). Beyond these spots, some miscellaneous pieces like Oscar Delp, Jayce Brown, or Trey Knox made for OK plays, but it was more just their price tags that let everything else work.
With the FSU news, I got pretty locked in on Bell at $4,200, so really, once the Moss news hit, it solidified that play and then made it easy to just play Justin Johnson so I could get my Cal wide receiver that I was obsessing about not having.
RESULTS
All of the chalk QBs completely smashed, but my takeaway is that if I ended up playing Plumlee over Gabriel, or even Mendoza for Cal (16% owned), you really could have done a lot more at the third RB spot and at wide receiver. I was admittedly worried that Mendoza might have a short leash given that he is a 2-star true freshman with god-awful high school stats who did not have any other Power 5 offers. In retrospect, I should have just considered a cheap QB versus USC because that has been a smash all season. Even if I could not stomach the Mendoza play, I should have been more willing to consider the option of dropping Gabriel down to Plumlee. My QBs were fine (actually Gabriel ran like a god to get 30), but I just think I could have played better at the position, which would have helped the lineup overall.
The Brooks and Harvey chalk was unsurprisingly solid, but the Justin Johnson play was an absolute disaster. While he did start the game, WVU has been going with the hot hand all season and the other WVU running backs looked great, so they played a ton. JJ looked terrible, so he was benched — such is life. I think Justin Johnson was a great play, but likely not in cash. It was clear the position and matchup had a ton of upside, but it was likely not worth the risk in cash because WVU is a spot where we never have confidence in the role game to game. Given the time crunch, I am not going to beat myself up too much about it, but it still never feels good when you know your cash running back is just basically glued to the bench the whole second half in a competitive game.
Wide receiver was a mess again this week. Oklahoma decided they were going to not throw (54 rushes, 19 passes), which really crushed Nic Anderson (one target) and then put a cap on Gabriel’s output. I get the weather was not great, but Jason Bean on the other side still threw 32 times in a fairly neutral game script and OU did have success throwing when they tried. I knew about the potential weather here and was tracking the total, and it actually went up slightly on game day. The game also had 71 points; it’s just really clear that OU’s game plan was to run the damn ball and then run it again — which is something we just got wrong. Taj Davis only earned four targets, which was concerning given how many times Cal dropped back to pass. We were likely a bit too confident in Taj’s target share, as we knew Jeremiah Hunter was likely underperforming the last few weeks. However, we can’t feel too bad about that spot considering how productive the offense was as a whole (and he played a ton of snaps).
Despite only beating a third of the field and a snowstorm in the middle of my lineup, I was less than nine points to the cash line, which shows how tight this week was. You could miss in a spot or two, but I had three complete failures, so I deservedly lost this week. I think I took on too much risk with the Justin Johnson play where there were paths to drop down from Dillon Gabriel to someone like Plumlee, which would have freed up funds to secure a better role at running back for cash games (which are really important roster spots to bank predictable touches). I definitely passed over the Kansas State and Penn State running back options more so because I did not know how to “pick the right one”, but in hindsight, I should have been more open to just playing a solid volume spot in a solid matchup. We knew at least three WVU running backs would be rotated in most likely; it’s what they always do. At least when the games are competitive, you know KSU and PSU guys will only be a two-man backfield.
I took the L this week in DK cash, ending the three-week cashing streak, but we will be back at it next week. Thanks for reading!
Season Results in Largest Single-Entry $5 Double-Up:
Week 0: 87th-percentile lineup (W)
Week 1: 12th-percentile lineup (L)
Week 2: 49th-percentile lineup (L)
Week 3: 33rd-percentile lineup (L)
Week 4: 92nd-percentile lineup (W)
Week 5: 42nd-percentile lineup (L)
Week 6: 64th-percentile lineup (W)
Week 7: 77th-percentile lineup (W)
Week 8: 83rd-percentile lineup (W)
Week 9: 34th-percentile lineup (L)
