Breakout or Fakeout: Week 1

Each week, there are unexpected performances across the NFL that leave fantasy gamers puzzled. In 2023, for example, you may have asked yourself the following:

• Is Puka Nacua’s 14-target performance in Week 1 a fluke, or sign of things to come? (Answer: He’s legit)
• Should I chase Will Levis after a dazzling 4-TD performance in his debut in Week 8? (Answer: No)
• De’Von Achane had 51 points in Week 3…after being a healthy scratch in Week 1. What the hell do I do with that information? (Answer: Buy Achane in all your leagues!)

The goal of this article is to help you separate the signal from the noise for the most perplexing breakout fantasy performances from the prior week. Each week, I will cover ~3-5 situations in-depth through both a statistical- and film-based lens to help you answer pressing questions related to waivers, trades, start-sit decisions, or DFS lineup decisions. Let’s get into it:

 

Isaiah Likely | J.K. Dobbins | Jameson Williams | Ladd McConkey

 

Isaiah Likely makes a case for TE1 in Baltimore

The box-score results jump off the page here. Isaiah Likely lapped the rest of the field as the clear TE1 in Week 1, catching nine balls for 111 yards and a TD on 12 targets. Mark Andrews, on the other hand, saw a meager two targets, finishing with two receptions for 14 yards. Does this mean Likely is the clear-cut TE1 in Baltimore? Is Andrews washed? As always in the NFL, things are not quite as simple as they appear.

Let’s start by building out the bull case for Likely. First off, regardless of whatever kind of excuses you want to attribute this performance to (such as: a weird game script, Likely seeing softer coverage, a fluky long TD on a broken play, etc.), there simply aren’t many TEs in the NFL capable of ~10-reception, 100+ yard performances. Point blank, period, end of sentence. I would wager significant money that this type of ceiling game is simply not in the range of outcomes for this year’s crop of TE2s (e.g., Tyler Conklin, Colby Parkinson, Cole Kmet, Hunter Henry, etc.).

Even compared to some of this year’s TE1s, Isaiah Likely’s performance shines from a historical range-of-outcomes perspective. Dalton Kincaid, ranked by most as the ~TE3-5 coming into the season, has never had >100 yards in his career, and has only eclipsed 10 targets once (11 targets in Week 9 of 2023). He has also never eclipsed 20+ PPR points in a single week, a threshold Likely easily cleared in Week 1 (26.1 points). Looking at a slightly lower threshold of 18+ PPR points, Likely has eclipsed this mark six times across 14 career starts, while Kincaid has done so just once out of 16 contests. You can do a similar analysis with Kyle Pitts, where Likely comes out looking like the higher-ceiling option, strictly from a “what has he done so far” perspective. Across 45 career games, Pitts has eclipsed 15+ PPR points just five times. Likely has gone over 18+ six times in just 14 starts. Those are wildly different hit rates in terms of spike weeks, with Likely looking like the far superior fantasy asset, though obviously some added context is needed on the Arthur Smith offense and Pitts’ own injuries potentially weighing down those figures.

Moving past the statistical arguments for moving Likely into the Pitts/Kincaid tier at TE, let’s break down how he looked on film in Week 1, starting with the highlights:

 

 

I’m paraphrasing something I saw on the broadcast, so apologies if I don’t have it 100% right, but I had a note that NFL Next Gen stats had Likely’s TD probability at <0.5% when he caught the ball. In other words, there was a less than 1 in 200 chance of converting that catch into a touchdown. Likely saw those odds and said, “Suck it, nerds”, outrunning a handful of Chiefs defenders and juking safety Bryan Cook (#6) out of his cleats en route to the end zone.

Later in the game, Likely came within inches — no, millimeters — of tying the game with a toe-tap catch in the back of the end zone:

 

 

On both of these plays, Lamar and Likely showed an impressive mind-meld, reminiscent of the Kelce-Mahomes connection. Likely, while not an overly impressive athlete in terms of straight line speed, has a knack for slipping away from defenders and finding the soft spots in zone coverage on broken plays. Combined with Lamar’s ability to avoid sacks and extend plays, this trait comes in very handy in the Ravens’ passing attack.

In addition to the long TD, there were other instances where Likely showed impressive yards-after-catch (YAC) ability.

 

 

Again, I will point out that nothing about Isaiah Likely’s speed jumps off the page. However, he has glimpses of the Kelce-esque wiggle where it almost looks like he’s on ice skates or slalom skis, shifting his weight back and forth effortlessly to keep defenders off balance and gain the extra yards after the catch. I believe this YAC ability is Likely’s signature trait. Amongst all TEs with at least 30 targets last year, Likely ranked third in YAC per reception, behind only George Kittle and Jonnu Smith. It’s worth noting that his average depth of target (aDOT) was still above average amongst TEs (7.4), which emphasizes that the YAC per reception numbers aren’t skewed by lots of screens or dump-offs.

If I was to dabble in anti-Likely trutherism, there are certainly some elements of Thursday night’s performance that struck me as “fluky”, or at least unlikely to repeat on a regular basis. First, a lot of Likely’s stat line was buoyed by short dump-offs. Some of these were on designed screens (the first play in the clip below), while others were in 2-minute drill situations where the Chiefs were playing prevent defense, not even contesting Likely’s wide-open flat routes.

 

 

Now, I think there are a couple of takeaways here, some good and some bad. First, I think it’s good that the Ravens view Likely as the “easy button” solution on screens and dump-offs, and we shouldn’t totally ignore that data point. If the Ravens’ offensive line continues to struggle, they may build in a large package of schemed touches to Likely as an extension of the run game. The bad news is that I think the Ravens faced an outlier opponent in the Chiefs in Week 1, a team that both forced them to throw the ball and pressured Lamar relentlessly, leading to tons of checkdowns. With the Ravens favored for the vast majority of games on their schedule, I don’t think we’re seeing too many games of 40+ pass attempts for Lamar (for what it’s worth, he threw 41 times in Week 1 but only threw 40+ attempts one time during the entire 2023 season).

The last part of the anti-Likely trutherism that I’ll entertain is the Andrews element of all this. Again, there are multiple angles here. First, the Chiefs have a long-standing track record of shutting Mark Andrews down. He’s averaged just ~2 catches for ~20 yards in his six career games against the Chiefs. On tape, there were certainly some instances where it looked like bracket/double coverage on Andrews was deployed, particularly near the red zone.

 

 

Furthermore, Nathan Jahnke of PFF points out that Andrews was double covered on a higher percentage of his routes in this game than in any game from 2021-2023.

Additionally, I think the Chiefs’ defensive pressure forced the Ravens to move away from Andrews, and towards dump-offs to Likely/Zay/Flowers. Andrews’ routes were more of the downfield, longer-developing variety, but Lamar often had to abandon those reads for dump-off options in the face of serious pressure.

The constant pressure from the Chiefs’ defensive line also forced Mark Andrews to stay in to block on passing plays far more than usual.

 

 

Andrews ran a route on just 83% of pass plays he was on the field for in Week 1. In all of 2023, that same rate was 92%. In 2022, it was 95%. The 10% difference might not seem huge, but in Week 1 it cost Andrews several routes in which he normally might have been able to run a seam route for a big play or catch a dump-off.

Finally, there’s the health element. Andrews dealt with multiple injuries this past year, including a car crash on Aug. 14. He missed a stretch of practices as a result, and it’s possible he was still somewhat impacted by the incident in Week 1. We have a really small sample of plays to work with, but I do buy that this version of Andrews we got in Week 1 looked a little off.

 

 

I can hear the, now discontinued, “C’mon man!” narration going on in the background of this play. Mark Andrews, what was this?!?

So to summarize, there are three parts of the Andrews story that I think could rebound going forward:

1. The Chiefs schemed to take away Andrews — other teams won’t do this successfully, or won’t try.
2. Kansas City’s pressure on Lamar forced checkdowns — Baltimore’s OL will improve, or the Chiefs’ DL is outlier good. If the pressure rates regress, Andrews’ downfield routes should be more fruitful.
3. Andrews isn’t fully healthy — it’s a long season, and Andrews can regain strength as the season goes on, much like we saw with Travis Kelce in 2023.

 

In summary, I don’t think it’s correct to fully panic on Andrews. I do believe that some combination of 1-3 above is likely to occur, and Andrews should be a fine mid-range TE1. I have not flipped Andrews below Likely in my rest-of-season rankings.

However, I would not blame anyone who wants to rank Likely over Andrews rest-of-season. I’d have it:

• Tier 1: Trey McBride
• Tier 2: Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, Brock Bowers, George Kittle
• Tier 3: Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, Isaiah Likely, Dalton Kincaid

 

I do think the Likely usage from Week 1 is a real signal in that he will be a major part of the Ravens’ offense this year, in a way that he never was in 2022 and 2023 unless Andrews was injured. In 2024, I expect this “11.5” personnel with both Andrews and Likely on the field to be the base package, and they will trade off weeks as the de facto WR2s in the offense behind Zay Flowers. If you wanted to paint the upside case for them, I think it’s possible that one of them even challenges Flowers as the leading receiver, or at least scores enough TDs in the red zone to edge him out in total fantasy scoring.

 

Final conclusions

• Buy Likely as a top ~10 TE rest-of-season, currently ranked in TE6-9 range. He’s worth ~20-35% FAAB bids depending on team needs.

• Don’t panic on Andrews. I’m slightly downgrading his rest-of-season outlook, but I still view him as a lower-end TE1 in the same tier as Likely, Pitts, and Kincaid.

 

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J.K. Dobbins shatters expectations coming off torn Achilles

In ripping off a 61-yard run against the Raiders’ stout defensive line, J.K. Dobbins did what many thought was impossible coming off a torn Achilles. He finished the day with 10 carries for 135 yards and one touchdown, adding three receptions for four yards on three targets through the air.

While Dobbins took a while to get going, when he did, he flashed incredible burst for a player who has suffered a litany of lower-body injuries throughout his career. All four of these carries occurred in the second half the game, after a relatively quiet first