Dynasty Outlook
March 7
Brian Thomas Jr. is our WR4 for rookie drafts and checks in as WR29 in our overall dynasty ranks. Playing with another star WR talent can often make it more difficult to evaluate a prospect statistically, but Thomas still comes out looking quite strong in our PCA analysis. He also falls into a subset of prospects that have been remarkably successful at the next level in a small sample. It is worth noting that DeAndre Hopkins (Sammy Watkins, Martavis Bryant), Odell Beckham (Jarvis Landry), Brandin Cooks (Markus Wheaton), Nelson Agholor (Marqise Lee, Robert Woods), CeeDee Lamb (Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews), Drake London (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Pittman), and Jameson Williams (Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson) all played with other NFL talents that made it difficult to break out before their final seasons. When considering this context, it is reasonable to shade positive when breaking down Thomas.
Profile Summary
Thomas is a first-round prospect with all the makings of a quality NFL deep threat. He averaged 17.3 yards per reception in his final season, and the scouts believe this will translate to the next level. Based on the comps, there is a chance that Thomas is a late bloomer in the NFL, or is never able to become a true WR1 for an NFL team.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/23) — 21.2
Experience — 3 years
Height — 74.875 inches
Weight — 209 pounds
Hand — 9.75 inches
Arm — 32.75 inches
Forty — 4.33 seconds
Vert — 38.5 inches
Broad — 126 inches
By the Numbers
Thomas accounted for 13% of his team’s receiving yards as a true freshman at LSU while playing with a bunch of NFL talents. Kayshon Boutte (sophomore, sixth round), Trey Palmer (junior, sixth round), and likely top-10 pick Malik Nabers were all on that 2021 LSU roster.
Thomas took a small step back in 2022. While Nabers ascended to the clear top target in the offense (Palmer was gone, but Boutte remained), Thomas still played an ancillary role with his raw totals remaining mostly the same.
In 2023, Thomas saw a true breakout, accounting for 27% of LSU’s receiving yards and 39% of their receiving TDs (his 17 TDs were the most in college football). He averaged 17.3 yards per reception. Thomas has just three carries for his career and was never active in the return game. Though he has just one year of real production, three-year receivers who broke out in their third season have actually fared quite well. Here are all of the WRs to do that since 2005 and be drafted in the first round:
DeAndre Hopkins
Mike Evans
Odell Beckham
Brandin Cooks
Nelson Agholor
CeeDee Lamb
Drake London
Jameson Williams
London and Williams are each about to enter their third season, and five of the other six players have been hits. The only true bust on this list is Agholor.
What the Scouts are Saying
Lance Zierlein likes Thomas as a deep threat:
Presents an appealing combination of size, length, and speed with experience working inside and outside. Thomas will occasionally go through the motions as a route runner, but the bend, athleticism, and speed needed to get better are all in the toolbox. He’s elusive against press and can uncover quickly underneath, but he still needs to improve intermediate routes and play a little more physically when crowded to become well-rounded. Thomas rarely has issues generating separation deep and could be counted on as an NFL team’s designated deep guy early in his career. Thomas is unpolished but has projectable talent to become a WR1/2 in time.
Daniel Jeremiah believes Thomas can be a No. 1 receiver:
Thomas is a big, explosive wideout with incredible production, including an FBS-best 17 touchdown catches this past season. He lines up outside and in the slot. He easily defeats press coverage with his quickness. He is very sudden in his release and can find another gear once the ball is up in the air. He is very loose and fluid as a route runner. He has snap at the top of the route and doesn’t waste steps. He has a very large catch radius because of his frame, leaping ability, and ball skills. After the catch, he has some wiggle to make defenders miss and also boasts home-run speed. Overall, Thomas is a big-play machine and has the upside to develop into a No. 1 receiver for his drafting team.
Dane Brugler notes that Thomas was originally a basketball recruit:
A former basketball recruit, Thomas has unique body movements for his size (before and after the catch), with focus and coordination to make plays above the rim. He consistently gets on top of coverage with quick acceleration, although crisper cuts and improved leverage will help him create better separation out of breaks.
Thomas took his game to another level in 2023, posting an FBS-best 17 touchdown grabs, the most by a Power 5 receiver since DeVonta Smith (23) in 2020.
Draft Projection
Thomas has an expected draft position of 21.9 on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. Mock Draft Database is a similar service that has Thomas 20th overall. Jeremiah’s most recent mock draft has Thomas going 23rd overall, while Brugler’s has him going 15th. Thomas is most likely to come off the board in the second half of the first round.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable players in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
Ironically, Thomas’ comps are loaded with other LSU alums: Justin Jefferson, Dwayne Bowe, Jarvis Landry, and Terrace Marshall. This doesn’t mean anything for his viability as a prospect of course, but it is an interesting note nonetheless.
Only Jefferson, Landry, and Tee Higgins were hits from this comp set, but Bowe and Michael Pittman met the scoring threshold in their fourth seasons. Mike Walker and Torrey Smith were fantasy-viable WR3s, but never high-quality assets. Marshall, Denzel Mims, and Cody Latimer were total busts. It is worth noting that the comps don’t realize that Thomas had to compete with Nabers.
