CFB DFS Top Plays: Week 0

Editor’s Note: We may not write up every player we consider to be a top play. Be sure to consult the chart at the bottom of the page. This page will be updated as necessary.

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Understanding optimal lineups for cash games is extremely important, even if you only play tournaments. Players in our cash pool are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo, and typically feature a relatively tight range of outcomes. These are the best plays on the board when considering price, context, and positional scarcity. These are usually pretty good options for GPPs as well.

The optimal GPP lineup will typically mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options, often in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership, game stacks, or correlation. In large-field tournaments, we should be much more mindful of ownership. For more tournament content, check out our projections, and Friday’s live show, Establish The Show: The College Years, with Alex Hardin and Sean Newsham.

With all that said, these are our Top Plays considering the following factors: mean projection, matchup, upside, and value. Ownership is NOT considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations”.

They are listed in price descending order (NOT ranked by “best play”). At the bottom, you’ll find suggested rankings by site once salary is accounted for.

Quarterback

Caleb Williams (USC – DK $9,900, FD $12,800) – The reigning Heisman Trophy winner looks to start off his repeat campaign in style, as the USC offense has the highest implied team total of the slate at nearly 50 points. While he did lose his top receiver from last season (Jordan Addison), the USC wide receiver corps is still among the deepest in the nation, and the San Jose State defense is expected to take a pretty severe step backward this year (94th nationally in returning defensive production). With pricing being soft on this slate, it is quite easy to prioritize spending your salary at QB, as Williams provides a straightforward path to winning the position by 10+ points. Last year, Caleb hit 30+ fantasy points in 10 of 14 games, while going over 40 four different times — which is just absurd consistency and upside. For cash games and single entry, Caleb basically comes preloaded into the QB1 slot of your lineup, where finding an alternate option for ceiling is a challenge.

Diego Pavia (NMSU – DK $7,400, FD $7,700) – If there is one guy who can challenge Caleb Williams‘ ceiling, it is pretty shocking that we are asking a New Mexico State quarterback to rise to the occasion. However, Pavia is a really good and willing runner who amassed over 500 yards and six TDs last season while not even playing every game as a starter. Really the key thing here is that UMass is likely the worst team in FBS and is terrible on both sides of the ball. This will be the only game all season for NMSU where they are 7+ point favorites, which sets up a great spot for Pavia. While his passing numbers last season were not pretty, he was clearly better throwing in the second half of the season, as he put up over 700 yards and nine passing touchdowns (with only one pick) over his final three games. We may not be able to fully justify Pavia in cash games on DK given the other options, but he is extremely underpriced on FD.