CFB Large-Field GPP Breakdown: Week 10

Every night when my wife and I go upstairs to put my son to bed, I leave my phone downstairs. It’s the only part of the day where I don’t have it within arm’s reach.

Before you guys start tearing up, I do still have my Apple Watch on, so notifications still come through. When my watch started vibrating like crazy on Sunday night, I didn’t even have to look to check why.

Brian Kelly was finally gone.

I wasn’t a fan of Kelly from the start. LSU was doomed from the moment he embarrassingly tried to fake a Cajun accent when he got introduced at a basketball game. He was a terrible fit and came off as an awful human being with his constant temper tantrums he threw on the sidelines. There hasn’t been one good thing said about Kelly by former players or coaches since he got fired. Shocker.

I already knew what I was going to post in Discord when I got back to my phone — the Andy Dufresne gif when he emerges in the rain after crawling through 500 yards of sewage pipe to escape Shawshank prison.

Free at last.

Week 9 Recap

• I got way too much right on the Week 9 main slate to have as poor a result as I did. It was just one of those weeks that prove you can nail most of your takes and still not have the right combos together to be relevant in large-field tournaments.
• Let’s start with J’Mari Taylor chalk. He was 45% owned and couldn’t get anything going all game. Well, to be fair, Virginia’s offense as a whole was terrible against UNC. So, of course, that game finished regulation 10-10, and Taylor scored a touchdown in OT. It’s frustrating to get such a correct read on a situation and get punished for it. Jeremiah Cobb was 38% owned. I had about 65% of Cobb, knowing he would probably get steamed up because the field saw how great the matchup and workload were going to be for him. He had 153 rushing yards against Arkansas. He just didn’t get into the end zone. So, my leverage virtually disappeared with him only scoring four fantasy points more than Taylor. It’s one of the more tilting situations I’ve had all season.
• Haynes King and Byrum Brown both started off the slate on fire, putting up 48 and 40 fantasy points, respectively. I thought after the early games finished, you would need both to contend in GPPs. Bear Bachmeier said not so fast, as he racked up 34 fantasy points at only $6,300. Bachmeier definitely benefited from LJ Martin getting hurt early in the first half and hooking up with Parker Kingston for a couple of touchdowns.
• Kingston was the highest-scoring WR of the slate. Jayce Brown wasn’t too far behind him. I talked up both in the breakdown last week. I just didn’t have enough of them in the right lineups for it to matter.
• What went wrong for me on Saturday? Jackson Arnold was one of my highest-owned QBs. Everything started great for Arnold, as he connected with Cam Coleman for a touchdown on the first drive. Everything went downhill from there. Coleman got hurt blocking on the next series, and Arnold threw a pick-six before halftime that got him benched. Three of my highest-owned RBs were Martin, Joe Jackson, and Mike Washington Jr. None of the three reached double-digit fantasy points. At least Martin got hurt; the other two didn’t have that excuse. I also continue to chase Baylor WRs along with the rest of the field. I had way too much of Josh Cameron and Michael Trigg, who both did just OK. When will I learn? The answer to that is I probably never will.
• To sum it up, I believe I’m a good GPP player because I lean into how I script my games and don’t let others sway me off of that. Sometimes I guess right and get rewarded. Sometimes I guess wrong and get destroyed. Sometimes I guess right and still get destroyed! The key is I have a process that I stick to and don’t let results change that, unless I’m reviewing a slate and identify that I made an incorrect read.

Week 10 Preview

• DraftKings gets put back in the penalty box this week for omitting Mississippi State-Arkansas from their 12-game main slate. I mean, who wants a game with a 4.5-point spread and a 65-point game total involving one of the worst P4 defenses? Not me!
• Now that I’m done complaining, this slate is a large-field tournament player’s dream. Anytime optimizers are starting to give you builds with only 1 QB in them, instant leverage is created. I never like to have 1-QB builds. And if I do, it’s certainly not when doing so is going to be somewhat popular.
• From a game-environment perspective, you don’t really have one matchup that stands out. None of the 12 games have totals in the 60s. That means there are probably going to be some spots that get overlooked. Some of these games are only a couple of points different from a game-total perspective, but they might see a good percentage difference in ownership.
• The only real injury news of the slate is Cade Klubnik. He was listed as probable on the availability report published on Thursday night. All signs point to him playing after Clemson had a bye last week. He’s currently projected to be the highest-owned QB of the slate.

Expected Chalk, How to Play It

Jeremiyah Love, DK Price: $9,000