CFB Large-Field GPP Breakdown: Week 8

I thought things couldn’t get worse for James Franklin after losing to UCLA. I was wrong. Very wrong.

At least he made some history on his way out the door. With the two losses to UCLA and Northwestern, Penn State became the first team since the FBS and FCS split in 1978 to lose consecutive games while favored by 20 or more points in each game. Don’t act like you’re not impressed.

It’s simply wild that three weeks ago Penn State was No. 2 in the country and had the second-highest odds to make the playoff. Now their starting QB is out for the season, their playoff hopes are gone, and their former coach is doing snow angels in piles of cash. If you’re feeling bad for Franklin — don’t. He’s making $20,000/day all the way until his contract expires in 2031 to not coach football.

Week 7 Recap

• Week 7 was just a meh main slate for me overall. I actually ended up with more Jeremiyah Love than I thought I would, which didn’t turn out well considering he only put up 20 fantasy points at 53% ownership. The chalk duo of Haynes King and Abu Sama III did not disappoint, with both of them racking up 32 fantasy points apiece. Sama had such a great matchup with Carsen Hansen still out with a concussion. King is almost matchup-proof at this point. We get another chance to roster him in Week 8.
• A ton of chalk trunk-slammed. Duce Robinson, Jeremiah Smith, Sam Jackson V, and Makhi Frazier were all 20+% owned and had snowflakes next to their names on DraftKings. Robinson got hurt early, Smith simply did OK at $9,000, and Frazier had a horrible game script as the Spartans got blown out by UCLA.
• Desmond Reid had missed Pitt’s previous two games and was questionable as they hit the road to face Florida State. He looked just like his old self, as he led the Panthers to the upset on the road. Reid racked up eight receptions for 155 yards and two touchdowns. In hindsight, if you told me Reid was healthy and was only $5,000, he would be a lock. However, there were a bunch of good, cheap running back plays, so I didn’t really see the need to risk playing him. If you did, you certainly got rewarded. He put up 43 fantasy points at only 2% ownership. Eric McAlister is also still doing Eric McAlister things. We’ll talk about him a bit more later.
• And finally, let’s discuss the rather contentious topic of Jackson V for Oklahoma State. He was the stone minimum at WR against Houston despite getting the start at QB. He was a train wreck. Oklahoma State was trying to make him a pocket passer, and he actually produced negative fantasy points. At only 23% ownership, I’d have double the field’s exposure 100/100 times. If you were brave enough to fade, good on you. I’ll never let results on a play like that dictate how I view those situations. Luckily, we get to do it all over again with Jackson on the FanDuel main slate this week.

Week 8 Preview

• I haven’t been this excited about a main slate since Week 4. DK only included 11 games on the docket for Week 8. From a game-environment perspective, Baylor-TCU, Georgia Tech-Duke, and Texas A&M-Arkansas stick out from the rest. All three have totals in the 60s.
• As I get to this point in the season, my player pool becomes smaller and smaller each week. You don’t have to take as many risks because rotations have firmed up and you have enough data, especially for tournaments, to rule out a considerable amount of players.
• Having said that, this might be one of the biggest injury question mark slates of the year. At quarterback, Cade Klubnik left Clemson’s game against Boston College with an injury. He’s questionable this week against SMU. The same can be said for Justice Haynes for Michigan and Behren Morton of Texas Tech. TCU is in a great spot against Baylor, but Joseph Manjack disappeared against Kansas State. Although he appears good to go this week, Ed Small is questionable after leading the Horned Frogs in targets against the Wildcats. There’s a ton to get into. Let’s not waste anymore time.

Expected Chalk, How to Play It