Dynasty Outlook
March 11
Olave is a target for rookie drafts at the end of Round 1 or start of Round 2, and is WR44 in our overall dynasty ranks. He displays a similar range of outcomes to his teammate Garrett Wilson, but does not have as strong a surrounding profile. For fantasy, Olave seems like a low-probability bet to hit his ceiling, but the expected draft capital along with his college production provides a sound floor. He should play right away for whatever team selects him, and has the ability to make plays down the field. There could be solid production to be had even if he finds himself in a limited role volume-wise.
Profile Summary
Chris Olave is a productive four-year player who had constant, elite-level target competition while at Ohio State. Though he was unable to make a meaningful impact as a true freshman, he put together three other quality years. As a four-year player, his ceiling should be lower than other wideouts, but the scouts have him as a polished, pro-ready player that should come off the board in Round 1. His work at the Combine was good enough to solidify that opinion.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/21) — 21.5
Experience — 4 years
Height — 72.375
Weight — 187 pounds
Hand Size — 9.5 inches
Arm Length — 31.125 inches
Wingspan — 73.125
Forty — 4.39 seconds
Vertical — 32 inches
Broad — 124 inches
By the Numbers
When Olave started his Ohio State career, he was the youngest of a group of NFL-level WRs — Terry McLaurin, Paris Campbell, and K.J. Hill all have gone on to at least appear in NFL games, with McLaurin the lone stud. With McLaurin gone, Olave quickly rose to the top of the Buckeye pecking order despite the team adding Garrett Wilson and Jameson Williams. He outplayed them again in 2020, leading to a breakout.
Declining to enter the draft after his true junior year, Olave returned as a senior, but took a backseat to sophomore breakout Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the current favorite to be the WR1 in the 2023 draft. While the elite target competition is notable, it is a bit of a red flag to fall behind two players younger than him in his final season. Olave’s junior year was by far the best of his career. He was not much of a contributor on special teams, or the ground game.
What the Scouts are Saying
Here is what Lance Zierlein had to say about Olave:
The quiet storm of the Ohio State wide receiver corps, Olave is smooth, steady, and makes things happen. His movements are fluid and easy from snap to the catch and all points between. He’s fast but efficient, and plays with the bend and foot agility to uncover on all three levels. Olave possesses natural, well-rounded ball skills but needs to add play strength to ward off the physical challenges that are headed his way. His play traits should allow for success beyond the scheme and talent advantages surrounding him at Ohio State. He is an inside/outside hybrid appealing to offenses looking for a field-stretcher with the ability to take on a sizable catch load.
Daniel Jeremiah also noted the smoothness to Olave’s game, as well as the need to add play strength:
Olave has average height and a lean/wiry frame for the position. He is a very smooth mover and has terrific speed. Against press coverage, he relies on his foot quickness to win, but he does get caught and re-routed on occasion. He needs to add upper-body strength. He is an excellent route runner — fluid in and out of breaks — and creates a lot of separation. Olave is at his best in the vertical passing game. He can find another gear when the ball is in the air, tracking it naturally, and he can finish consistently. He displays burst after the catch, while lacking the strength to pull through tackles. Overall, Olave needs to get stronger, but he’s a home-run hitter with outstanding route polish.
Dane Brugler makes it a clean sweep from the scouts on the route polish that Olave possesses:
The Buckeyes’ all-time leader in touchdown catches (35), Olave is a smooth route runner with the deep speed and tracking instincts to consistently win down the field. He has an average body type and doesn’t consistently create after the catch, but he knows how to create spacing and shows a feel for leveraging coverage. Olave is a polished pass catcher with NFL-ready skills.
Draft Projection
Olave currently has an expected draft position of 22.2 on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. Mock Draft Database is a similar service that has Olave 22nd overall. He is 25th on Brugler’s big board, and 26th on Jeremiah’s. It seems clear that Olave will be selected somewhere in the back half of the first round.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate WR prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable WRs in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
Olave’s comparable players look strikingly similar to those of his teammate Wilson. And it makes sense. They have similar production, size, speed, and expected draft position. They also have similar ages despite the difference in experience. But the rub is that Olave played a fourth season, which we know is typically detrimental for WR prospects if they don’t break out early.
With that in mind, it is tough to hold out hope for the ceiling comps like Odell Beckham and Santonio Holmes. A lot of the other comps produced some form of fantasy value, even if it wasn’t in the WR1 range. Ted Ginn, Nelson Agholor, Steve Smith (USC), and Sterling Shepard have all had fantasy usefulness during their respective careers.
