DFS NBA Top Plays: December 23

Injuries

*Grant Riller (O, knee)
*Matthew Dellavedova (O, head)
*Dante Exum (O, hip)
*Kevin Love (O, calf)
*Kevin Porter Jr. (O, personal)
*Austin Rivers (O, groin)
*Omari Spellman (O, knee)
*Dennis Smith Jr. (P, quad)
*Mitchell Robinson (P, ankle)
*Goga Bitadze (O, ankle)
*Brian Bowen II (O, groin)
*Jeremy Lamb (O, knee)
*T.J. Warren (Q, foot)
*Gabe Vincent (Q, knee)
*Al-Farouq Aminu (O, knee)
*James Ennis (O, hammy, calf)
*Jonathan Isaac (O, knee)
*Rui Hachimura (O, eye)
*Garrison Mathews (O, two-way)
*Cassius Winston (O, two-way)
*D.J. Augustin (O, calf)
* Kemba Walker (O, knee)
*Romeo Langford (O, wrist)
*Tacko Fall (O, eye)
*Wenyen Gabriel (O, knee)
*Will Magnay (O, NWT)
*Patrick McCaw (O, knee)
*Norman Powell (Q, med protocols)
*Kris Dunn (O, knee)
*Rajon Rondo (O, med protocols)
*Tony Snell (O, foot)
*Brandon Goodwin (P, elbow)
*Clint Capela (O, Achilles)
*Thaddeus Young (O, leg)
*Trevor Ariza (O, NWT)
*Ty Jerome (O, ankle)
*Theo Maldeon (O, personal)
*Chris Clemons (O, Achilles)
*Ben McLemore (O, NWT)
*DeMarcus Cousins (D, protocols)
*John Wall (D, protocols)
*James Harden (Q, strip clubs)
*Jae’Sean Tate (D, protocols)
*K.J. Martin (O, self isolation)
*Mason Jones (D, protocols)
*Quinndary Weatherspoon (O, knee)
*Derrick White (O, toe)
*Jaren Jackson Jr. (O, knee)
*Jontay Porter (O, knee)
*Killian Tillie (O, hamstring)
*Xavier Tillman (O, knee)
*Justise Winslow (O, hip)
*Deividas Sirvydis (O, NWT)
*Jordan McLaughlin (O, med protocols)
*Jaylen Nowell (O, calf)
*JaMychal Green (O, calf)
*Jabari Parker (O, back)
*Derrick Favors (P, knee)
*Anfernee Simons (Q, hamstring)
*Nassir Little (O, protocols)
*Kristaps Porzingis (O, knee)
*Maxi Kleber (P, knee)
*Dario Saric (O, quad)
*Abdel Nader (O, concussion)

Establish the Context

If you subscribed to us during the NBA Bubble season, Top Plays is going to look a little different for the 2020-2021 season. Instead of providing simplistic analysis on players in good matchups, noting the scoring environment or pace of the game, we felt it was more useful to provide context to the projections which alongside the Top Plays chart below provides recommendations on who to play. On the Live Show, we’ll cover more of the “why” and discuss thoughts for cash games and tournaments, but in here we’re going to discuss where projections might be fragile and where they’re rock solid so you have a better handle on how to build.

Let’s start at the top where the most fragile projection situation of all is the Houston Rockets. The Rockets sent players home due to a positive test result for Kenyon Martin Jr. and they’re already down a body with Ben McLemore also testing positive the day before. They reportedly sent home John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, and Jae’Sean Tate. It’s unclear if James Harden will be available after some investigation into whether he broke protocol and is going to be suspended. Basically, it’s a gigantic mess. IF the game plays, the likely scenario is the Rockets are so thin that there is a value bonanza – this would be exaggerated if James Harden was unable to go. They’re playing a Thunder team that played faster in the preseason but is loaded with some pretty good defenders, especially in the starting lineup. There’s a chance that the Houston value plays that do emerge are pretty fragile. We expect Christian Wood, Eric Gordon, and James Harden to all thrive if they get bigger roles. If Harden sits, we’d expect Sterling Brown to be the most capable non-Gordon ball-handler and emerge as a fine source of salary relief. In general, the Rockets are a good place to attack tonight, but primarily through their key players and less so from the secondary guys unless Harden gets ruled out.