DFS Top Plays: Week 1

Editor’s Note: We may not write up every player we consider to be a top play. Be sure to consult the chart at the bottom of the page. This page will be updated once on Sunday morning, if necessary.

DFS Optimizer? We do not have an optimizer, but we have a promotional deal with FantasyLabs. For $30 per month, you will gain access to their optimizer and it will come pre-loaded with both ETR projections and Adam Levitan’s ownership projections. Click here for details.

You don’t have to play cash games to understand why it’s important to grasp them. Players we consider for cash are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo and feature a relatively tight range of outcomes.

In other words, these are the best plays on the board once price, slate context and positional depth is accounted for. Those sound like pretty good options for GPPs as well.

The optimal GPP lineup will mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership or game stacks or correlation. In large-field tournaments, our ACO (average cumulative ownership) should stay reasonably low. Please read this article and listen to Episode 237 of the podcast for more on large-field tournament strategy.

For more tournament content, check out our projections and Saturday’s Establish The Million show with Drew Dinkmeyer and Mike Leone. 

With all that said, these are our Top Plays considering the following factors: Median projection, matchup, upside and value. Ownership is NOT considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations.”

They are listed in price descending order (NOT ranked by “best play”). At the bottom, you’ll find suggested rankings by site once salary is accounted for. 

QUARTERBACK
Patrick Mahomes ($8100 DK, $8800 FD) — Easy to overlook Mahomes given his price combined with how expensive it is to stack him with Travis Kelce and/or Tyreek Hill. Not the best pure matchup, but this spot is popping in our GPP Game Scores.

Josh Allen ($7400 DK, $8100 FD) — Steelers defense remains very good, but they enter Week 1 dealing with a ton of key injuries. It’s not something to fear, especially when Josh Allen combines three freakish qualities: One of the league’s deepest aDOTs, one of the league’s highest pass rates over expectation, and an elite rushing floor/ceiling. 

Jalen Hurts ($6400 DK, $7600 FD) — In three full games last season, Hurts rushed 38 times for 238 yards with one TD. That rushing floor coupled with upgraded weaponry (Devonta Smith, Quez Watkins, healthy Zach Ertz/Dallas Goedert/Miles Sanders) keeps the ceiling sky-high. 

RUNNING BACK
Christian McCaffrey ($9500 DK) — McCaffrey is priced near his ceiling but he is still popping as the best RB play on DK. It’s a different story on FD, where the half-PPR, outrageously high salary and no-bonus format hold him down.

Dalvin Cook ($9100 DK, $9400 FD) — Role only slightly worse than CMC’s and matchup against annually run-soft Bengals is strong. Better than CMC on FanDuel because of TD expectation and price.  

Alvin Kamara ($8600 DK, $8600 FD) — No Michael Thomas, Jameis Winston starting, and Latavius Murray gone. Training camp couldn’t have gone much better for Kamara, who excels in DK’s full-PPR format. He’s also very cheap on FD relative to CMC and Dalvin.

Najee Harris ($6300 DK, $6500 FD) — Tough game environment in hostile Buffalo for the rookie, but we suspect he will play at least 80% of the snaps — with upside toward the 95% range. That’s a massive role at these prices, especially since Harris plays so well in the pass game.

Joe Mixon ($6200 DK, $7200 FD) — With Gio Bernard gone, we are finally expecting to see Mixon’s three-down skill set unleashed. Matchup isn’t ideal, but prices are very cheap for a 15-touch floor.

James Robinson ($5900 FD) — Robinson is priced ahead of Joe Mixon, Antonio Gibson, Najee Harris on DraftKings. But on FanDuel, he’s eye-openingly cheap against the expansion-level Texans. J-Rob pops there even though we expect Carlos Hyde to mix in plenty.

Antonio Gibson ($5900 DK, $7000 FD) — Not expecting Gibson to play many pure pass downs, but we are expecting his touches per snap to be massive. And he’ll have the goal-line role. Explosive talent we want to be ahead on, even in less than ideal matchups.

WIDE RECEIVER
Davante Adams ($8300 DK, $8600 FD) — Another year of the Packers failing to give Aaron Rodgers more weapons. That means another year of outrageous target share and goal-line role for Davante Adams.

Calvin Ridley ($7900 DK, $8100 FD) — With Julio Jones gone, Ridley’s target share could creep toward the league-lead this season. He also historically has a very high aDOT and very high red-zone target rate. Only piece of fragility is the new Arthur Smith offense. 

Tyler Boyd ($5200 DK, $5900 FD) — Clean matchup in the slot for Boyd as we expect Joe Burrow to need to get the ball out quick. Note that Boyd is actually cheaper than Tee Higgins (by $100) on FD. Tee is certainly a fine play on both sites, especially if Ja’Marr Chase’s target share is depressed early in the season as he adjusts to the NFL.

Marvin Jones ($3600 DK) — Another cheap DK wideout option. Jones is very familiar with Darrell Bevell’s offense from their time together in Detroit and Houston is the best matchup he’ll see all year. On DK, Jones is $1400 less than Laviska Shenault. On FanDuel, Viska is $200 less.

Marquez Callaway ($3400 DK) — Emerged as the No. 1 receiver for Jameis Winston. Michael Thomas is out and Tre’Quan Smith is banged up. Callaway savings aren’t needed on FanDuel, but can’t be ignored on DraftKings.

Elijah Moore ($3000 DK) — The impressive second-round rookie was already ticketed for a solid role out of the gate. Then Jamison Crowder (out, COVID) and Keelan Cole (questionable, knee) went down. Expect Moore to be an every-down player Sunday.

TIGHT END
Travis Kelce ($8300 DK, $8500 FD) — It’s midseason pricing on Kelce, no bargains. But he’s still firmly in play, particularly in a matchup against Browns rookie LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah.

George Kittle ($6300 DK, $7000 FD) — Matchup, talent, and efficiency are all massively in Kittle’s favor. Only concern is target volume in this matchup at Detroit.  

Kyle Pitts ($4400 DK, $6000 FD) — A better play on DraftKings thanks to price. But we still suspect Pitts’ price will only go up from here on both sites. With Hayden Hurst as the in-line tight end, Pitts is going to be used all over the field as a borderline wideout. 

DEFENSE
Broncos ($3300 DK, $4100 FD) — Thorn’s biggest trench mismatch of the week is Broncos DL vs. Giants OL. And Daniel Jones is one of the NFL’s most pressure-sensitive QBs. 

Jaguars ($2700 DK, $3900 FD) — There is absolutely zero talent on the Texans — including in their offensive line which Brandon Thorn ranks 29th.

Bills ($2500 DK, $3600 FD) — If the Bills can jump out to a big lead, it will force old man and immobile Big Ben into a ton of dropbacks.