RUNNING BACKS
Opportunity is king for fantasy football running backs, and players drafted earlier tend to get more opportunity. Higher picks start at or near the beginning of position-group lines; later picks and undrafted rookies start out behind. When determining playing time, NFL decision makers tend to highlight duties that higher draft picks can execute and focus on things that lower-valued prospects can’t. On the field, we should target running backs capable of contributing in the passing game – making them less dependent on game script – and players who have the clearest paths toward seeing the field.
1. Raiders RB Josh Jacobs (1.24)
A “trust the tape” prospect who never started at Alabama and became the first running back since 1998 to be drafted in the first round after never totaling 1,000 yards in a college season, Jacobs indeed shined in his opportunities at Alabama, scoring 11 touchdowns on 120 carries as a 2018 junior and gaining a first down or scoring a touchdown on a nation-high 41% of his runs. Jacobs lacks homerun-hitting long speed (4.60/4.63) but runs with violence and quick feet between the tackles, drops hammers in the blitz-pickup game, and is a dangerous receiver. In Oakland, Jacobs offers immediate 300-touch potential.
2. Eagles RB Miles Sanders (2.21)
Sanders exploded as Penn State’s feature back once Saquon Barkley left, earning 18.8 touches per game and ranking eighth in the nation in yards after contact per carry (3.68). At 5-foot-11, 211 with 4.49 speed and a twitchy 6.89 three-cone time, Sanders runs like a suped-up Devonta Freeman with a jump-cutting, energetic style. Sanders also shined as a pass blocker but had one of the highest fumble rates in this year’s running back class. If he cleans up his ball security, Sanders has a chance to emerge as the Eagles’ first true feature back since LeSean McCoy. Jordan Howard is a role player in a contract year, while Nos. 3-5 backs Wendell Smallwood, Corey Clement, and Josh Adams are battling for roster spots.
3. Bears RB David Montgomery (3.09)
The Bears traded up for Montgomery at No. 74 overall after jettisoning Jordan Howard just before the draft. Although Montgomery’s lack of big-play ability is a concern — he runs 4.63 and was consistently caught from behind on Iowa State tape — his sheer tackle-breaking skills are the best in this class, and Montgomery shined in the passing game with 71 catches across three college seasons. Whereas Tarik Cohen (5’6/179) has settled in as a niche-role player, Montgomery (5’10/222) offers true three-down workhorse tools. Behind a Bears offensive line returning all five starters, Montgomery should have little trouble holding off Mike Davis for lead-back work and offers low-end RB1 potential right off the bat.
4. Rams RB Darrell Henderson (3.06)
After trading up for Henderson at the 70th overall pick, GM Les Snead likened his projected role to Alvin Kamara’s as a versatile space player with immense big-play potential. A 4.49 speedster at 5-foot-8, 208, Henderson averaged an otherworldly 8.2 career yards per carry at Memphis and led the nation in yards after contact per rushing attempt (6.2) in his final year. He also caught 63 passes across three seasons, averaging 12.0 yards per catch. Behind arthritic-kneed Todd Gurley, Henderson’s floor looks to be a 9-12 touches-per-game complement with league-winning upside if Gurley breaks down. After he landed in an elite offense, no one should be surprised if Henderson emerges as the most-valuable back in this class.
5. Chiefs RB Darwin Thompson (6.41)
Thompson maxed out as a committee back in his lone year at Utah State, but his hyper efficiency and ideal landing spot elevated Thompson above the sleeper map. Thompson destroyed the Mountain West for 15.3 yards per catch, 6.8 yards per carry, and 5.07 yards after contact per rushing attempt, over a full yard better than last year’s conference runner up. A Dion Lewis clone at 5-foot-8, 200, Thompson’s playmaking ability and high-scoring destination give him immense upside for a late sixth-round pick. Penciled-in starter Damien Williams has never topped 50 rushing attempts in an NFL season, and Carlos Hyde is a journeyman on a one-year deal.
6. Ravens RB Justice Hill (4.11)
Even if the Ravens didn’t sink big draft capital into Hill the prospect, it’s easy to envision him carving out Baltimore’s primary change-of-pace role behind Mark Ingram. Hill held off Seahawks starter Chris Carson for Oklahoma State’s primary-back job as a true freshman, then posted the No. 2 SPARQ score among running backs invited to the Combine with 4.4-flat speed and explosive vertical (40”) and broad (10’10”) jumps. Hill’s passing-game experience is limited — and that won’t change in Baltimore’s run-first attack — but he has a chance to be the new Alvin Kamara to Ingram’s Ingram on a team where Hill can immediately push for double-digit touches per game.
7. Cowboys RB Tony Pollard (4.26)
Buried behind now-Rams phenom Darrell Henderson at Memphis, Pollard found other ways to contribute by averaging 6.8 yards per career carry with 104 catches in three seasons and seven kickoff-return scores. Plus sized (6’0/210) with 4.42 speed, Pollard is quietly positioned as holdout Ezekiel Elliott‘s immediate handcuff. Cowboys VP Stephen Jones stopped just shy of comparing Pollard to Alvin Kamara after the draft, and Pollard’s background is strikingly similar as an underutilized multi-phase weapon with a dynamic all-purpose game.
8. Vikings RB Alexander Mattison (3.38)
Mattison’s pre-draft profile didn’t stand out after he averaged a sluggish 4.9 yards per career carry at Boise State and slugged out a 4.67 forty and 7.13 three-cone time at the Combine. Just nine of his 302 carries last year gained 15 yards or more (3%). But Mattison impressively caught 60 passes in three college seasons and stands 5-foot-11, 221, adding thump to Minnesota’s backfield. Starter Dalvin Cook has missed 17-of-32 possible games since entering the league, and the Vikings invested much less in incumbent No. 2 back Mike Boone, a 2018 undrafted free agent. A plus-sized grinder with goal-line vulture potential, Mattison could push for flex value as a rookie with RB1/2 upside if Cook goes down. Mattison’s one-cut running style fits new Vikings offensive boss Gary Kubiak’s outside-zone scheme.
9. Patriots RB Damien Harris (3.23)
Continuing to supplement their power-rushing attack, the Patriots drafted two offensive linemen and a third-round running back one year after using first-round picks on both positions (Sony Michel, Isaiah Wynn). A Jack of all trades but master of none under Nick Saban, Harris held off higher-drafted Josh Jacobs for Alabama’s starting tailback job and graduated with 52 catches, also shining in pass protection. Harris has workable speed (4.57) for his size (5’10/216) and a versatile enough profile to fit in New England, but his path to touches is murky behind Michel and James White, who are signed through 2021 and 2020, respectively. Rex Burkhead also has two years left on his deal.
10. Bills RB Devin Singletary (3.10)
Elusive if undersized at 5-foot-8, 203, Singletary drew pre-draft comparisons to LeSean McCoy and now looks positioned to replace him. Although Singletary showed workhorse capability with 714 carries in three seasons at Florida Atlantic and ranked second in the nation behind David Montgomery (100) in missed tackles forced (96) last season, Singletary’s stock took a big hit at the Combine with a 4.66 forty and 7.32 three-cone time. Singletary’s reception totals also dipped in each of his three years (26 > 19 > 6). Although Buffalo’s backfield seems crowded, 31-year-old McCoy looks to be on his way out, 36-year-old Frank Gore is a rental, and T.J. Yeldon’s cheap two-year deal contains just $500,000 guaranteed.
11. Packers RB Dexter Williams (6.21)
Williams would’ve been drafted earlier if not for two college suspensions and more missed time due to ankle injuries, preventing him from ever rushing for 1,000 yards in an individual season at Notre Dame. He also caught only 22 passes over four years. Williams’ landing spot and athleticism/efficiency profiles stand out, however, entering a high-scoring offense where lead back Aaron Jones has endured injury and off-field issues and Jamaal Williams has largely proven sub-NFL caliber. An aggressive runner on tape, Williams hustled out a 4.57 forty and explosive 10-foot-10 broad jump at 5-foot-11, 212. Williams comes with minimal draft capital but a foreseeable path to fantasy-relevant usage in a TBD backfield.
12. Jaguars RB Ryquell Armstead (5.02)
Bowling-ball built at 5-foot-11 and 220 pounds, Armstead’s calling card is his weight-adjusted Speed Score with a 4.45 straight-line forty time. Armstead’s tape was less impressive as a straight-linish grinder who caught just 29 passes in 47 college games. Still a high-effort runner with early fifth-round draft capital, Armstead is the favorite to open 2019 as injury-riddled Leonard Fournette’s primary handcuff.
13. Steelers RB Benny Snell (4.20)
A lunch-pail grinder who logged 737 carries but only 29 catches at Kentucky and slugs 4.66 at 224 pounds, Snell will try to become an Alfred Morris-level outlier with so many missing characteristics of an NFL-quality back. Snell’s yards after contact per carry declined each season (4.04 > 3.36 > 3.23) at Kentucky, and he bombed the Combine with lowly ninth-percentile SPARQ results. Snell’s fantasy appeal is tied to his landing spot in a consistently high-scoring offense where only small-sample James Conner and gadget-y Jaylen Samuels pose obstacles for snaps.
14. Panthers RB Jordan Scarlett (5.16)
Scarlett went to Florida as a five-star high school recruit but fell short of expectations due to RBBC usage and a full-season 2017 suspension for credit-card fraud, never reaching 180 carries in an individual year. He also caught only 15 passes in 35 games, showing a persistent penchant for drops. Scarlett did blaze 4.47 at 5-foot-11, 208 at the Combine and landed in a backfield where only plodder Cameron Artis-Payne and UDFA Elijah Holyfield pose tangible competition behind Christian McCaffrey.
15. Falcons RB Qadree Ollison (5.14)
Ollison tested as an 11th-percentile athlete after grinding out a career 529/2,859/29 (5.40 YPC) rushing line with 50 catches in four years at Pitt. His biggest shortcoming was agility drills; Ollison’s Speed Score is impressive with 4.58 jets at 6-foot-1, 228, but his three-cone time (7.53) and vertical jump (29 ½”) were far below par. Ollison’s fantasy intrigue is mainly tied to his size-speed combo and opportunity. Brian Hill is a surmountable obstacle, while Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith have both battled injuries.
16. Lions RB Ty Johnson (6.13)
Johnson was mainly a part-time back to close out his career at Maryland, but his size is more than acceptable (5’11/210) and his explosiveness extraordinary with 4.45 wheels and a 7.6 yards-per-carry average in college. Johnson also averaged over 11.0 yards per reception, although he caught only 29 career passes in the Terrapins’ dysfunctional passing game. Johnson’s stock rose considerably when the Lions released Theo Riddick, clearing immediate opportunity behind Kerryon Johnson.
17. Redskins RB Bryce Love (4.10)
Love erupted for one of the most-prolific rushing lines in NCAA history as a junior (263/2,118/8.1/19) to win the 2017 Doak Walker and Lombardi Awards as the nation’s top running back and overall player. Love’s yards per carry sank from 8.1 to 4.5 as a senior, however, and he tore his ACL in Stanford’s regular season finale, preventing Love from testing before the draft. Offseason reports indicated Love’s recovery involved hiccups. With Derrius Guice, Adrian Peterson, Chris Thompson, and Samaje Perine also in Washington, Love’s short- and long-term roles are entirely unclear.
18. Bengals RB Trayveon Williams (6.09)
The Bengals wasted a 2018 fourth-round pick on Mark Walton, then spent two sixth-rounders on the position this year. Williams averaged 200 carries and 22 catches per season over three years at Texas A&M and gained 10-plus yards on 57 of his rushing attempts last year, earning first-team All-SEC from the conference’s coaches. Jack of many trades but master of none, Williams profiles as an Elijah McGuire-level all-purpose back who can survive in spot starts but likely never projects as a bellcow.
19. Bengals RB Rodney Anderson (6.38)
Anderson made only nine career starts at Oklahoma after breaking his leg as a freshman, fracturing vertebra as a sophomore, and tearing his ACL last September. In his lone semi-healthy college season, Anderson averaged 6.2 yards per carry and caught 17 passes as a 2017 junior. Anderson’s durability is an obvious concern, but his size-efficiency combo isn’t at 6-foot, 224. With Giovani Bernard and Trayveon Williams as part-time backs, Anderson slots in as Joe Mixon’s direct backup for lead-back duties.
20. Dolphins RB Myles Gaskin (7.20)
An extreme-volume workhorse as the Washington Huskies’ four-year feature back, Gaskin graduated as the first player in Pac-12 history to rush for 1,000-plus yards in all four seasons. Gaskin’s history of bellcow capability and match with a wide-open rebuilding team are pluses, but the Dolphins’ draft capital invested and Gaskin’s substandard athleticism are cons. He seems like a good college player who won’t amount to much in the pros but maintains enough positive traits to be late-flyer Dynasty worthy.
21. Saints RB Devine Ozigbo (UDFA)
At 5-foot-11, 222 with 4.54 speed and a 10-foot-4 broad jump, Ozigbo was a surprising Combine snub and subsequent non-draftee after destroying his senior season for 155/1,082/12 (7.0 YPC) rushing with 23 catches at Nebraska. Ozigbo led the Big Ten in percentage of carries that generated first downs or touchdowns (34%). The Saints are committed to limiting Alvin Kamara, and Latavius Murray is hardly impenetrable in the Mark Ingram role. New Orleans also fields quantifiably the premier offensive line in the league.
22. Bucs RB Bruce Anderson (UDFA)
A stiff, sometimes too-upright runner who failed to show elusiveness on North Dakota State tape and struggled in the agility-measuring three-cone drill (7.23) before the draft, Anderson is nevertheless interesting based on landing spot. Plodding starter Peyton Barber is on a one-year deal, and Ronald Jones was a 2018 second-round flop. At 5-foot-11, 210, Anderson ran a respectable 4.58 forty at the Bison Pro Day. He showed good pass-blocking effort at NDSU but caught only 32 passes in four seasons.
23. Panthers RB Elijah Holyfield (UDFA)
Holyfield went from shining in a committee with Georgia teammate D’Andre Swift at the highest level of college football to going undrafted after running 4.78 at the Combine. While Holyfield’s utter lack of long speed is apparent on tape, he was still a productive grinder who averaged 6.4 yards per carry last season and offers “big back” complementary potential at 5-foot-10, 217 with a rushing skill set built for short yardage. Fellow early-down plodder Cameron Artis-Payne and fifth-round college underachiever Jordan Scarlett pose Holyfield’s only real obstacles to earn No. 2 back work behind Christian McCaffrey.
24. Texans RB Damarea Crockett (UDFA)
Crockett was a frustratingly inconsistent player to watch on Missouri tape, but his Speed Score and landing spot stand out. At 5-foot-10, 225, Crockett blazed 4.4-flat with a 37-inch vertical at the Tigers’ Pro Day. Underwhelming starter Lamar Miller is in the last year of his deal, and D’Onta Foreman was cut early in camp. August trade acquisition Duke Johnson has spent his NFL career as solely a passing-down back.
25. Titans RB Alex Barnes (UDFA)
A pedestrian runner at Kansas State who caught only 25 passes in three years, Barnes generates notice based on his Combine measurables and mildly intriguing team fit. Barnes logged the No. 3 SPARQ score in this year’s running back class with 4.59 speed and a 6.95 three-cone time at 6-foot, 226. Although his athletic traits don’t all show on college tape, Barnes could perhaps realize them under an NFL training staff. In Tennessee, Barnes faces minimal hurdles to earn the No. 2 big-back role behind Derrick Henry.
26. Giants RB Jonathan Hilliman (UDFA)
Hilliman unsurprisingly went undrafted after spending his five-year college career in Boston College and Rutgers committees, never reaching 800 total yards in an individual season and averaging an anemic 3.5 career yards per carry. Hilliman did flash passing-game competency with 36 catches over his final two years before blazing 4.43/4.49 forty times at 5-foot-11, 216 at the Scarlet Knights’ Pro Day. Hilliman’s competition to back up Saquon Barkley is soft; JAG Wayne Gallman and Cowboys castoff Rod Smith.
Other Rookie Running Backs: Seahawks RB Travis Homer (6.31), Texans RB Karan Higdon (UDFA), Cowboys RB Mike Weber (7.04), Bears RB Kerrith Whyte (7.08), Jets RB Jalin Moore (UDFA), Free agent RB James Williams (UDFA)
