Evan Silva’s Matchups: Bengals at Bills

Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

Cincinnati @ Buffalo

Team Totals: Bengals 23.5, Bills 29.5

It’s admittedly a tall ask for Joe Burrow on paper against a Bills secondary permitting the fewest passing points weekly, already stumping the MVP Drake Maye (for 12.1 fantasy points), Patrick Mahomes (10.5), and Baker Mayfield (6.0 points exclusively through the air) to date. Glass half full for Burrow’s ceiling: The team let it rip for the league’s fourth-highest Pass Rate Over Expectation in his return, and Buffalo has leaked 8.2 yards per attempt (31st) with Joey Bosa (hamstring, out) off the field. … Chase Brown earned a 15.9% target share sans Tee Higgins (concussion) on Thanksgiving for Burrow’s 46 throws. The compliments stop there, as Samaje Perine returned and stole a whopping 42% of their backfield touches. Fortunately for both, the Bills are still getting flamed for a league-high 2.9 yards after contact per run, keeping Brown entrenched (at least in this matchup) as a fringe RB1. Perine quietly handled two carries inside the 10 and can equally get there as a FLEX.

Expect a heaping of targets to Ja’Marr Chase and Higgins in their first game with Burrow since Week 2. The Bills have Thanos’d enemy WR2s for 4.3 targets weekly (second), but no one would tell you to sit Higgins in season-long as long as Burrow is healthy. If anything, that note makes Tee’s ceiling questionable for DFS. … Feel free to ignore Andrei Iosivas in managed leagues with Higgins back in the mix. Even in running a route on 90% and 96% of the team’s dropbacks the past two games (in place of Chase and Tee), Iosivas was merely targeted on 12% of his routes for WR3 scores. If you’re interested in cheap main-slate exposure toward this environment, note that Mitchell Tinsley was targeted on 27% of his routes (for 2/29/1 and 2/22/0) in that stint. … There’s no need to play any of Drew Sample (22 routes against Baltimore), Mike Gesicki (20), Noah Fant (15), or Tanner Hudson (five for the only TD among this group) here: Buffalo has limited TEs to the league’s fewest targets per game (4.5). 

The Bills boast the week’s highest team total (29.5) and, quite frankly, there are no holes to poke: Josh Allen has completed 73.7% of his passes for 13 (out of 19) touchdowns and 29.6 per-game fantasy points at home, compared to 15.7 outside of Highmark Stadium. … Since being blown out on the road in Week 10 (following their in-season Super Bowl against the Chiefs), James Cook has rebounded with touch counts of 19, 20, and 35 in his last three games, tacking on three catches in four straight. Not that you need a motive to play any RBs against Cincy, but New England’s backfield is the only group that failed to reach 23 fantasy points opposite them.

For all their flaws on defense, the Bengals have actually deflated opposing WR performances by our fourth-best margin. You’re obviously not trusting any Bills receiver week to week, but Khalil Shakir continues to offer the highest floor (as a WR3) of the bunch for Cincy’s eighth-most points allowed in the slot. … Don’t go chasing waterfalls or starting any of Gabe Davis (who actually led this ragtag group in routes run last week), Keon Coleman, Brandin Cooks, or Tyrell Shavers, as all continued to be rotated as baffling darts. … Scorched by Hunter Henry (7/115/1) and Baltimore’s TEs (9/142/0) the past two weeks, you’re blindly starting Dalton Kincaid (knee, questionable) if he’s active, or simply pivoting to Dawson Knox as an elite streamer if Kincaid’s out. Knox actually led the entire team in routes run in Pittsburgh.

Score Prediction: Bills 38, Bengals 31