L.A. Chargers @ Kansas City
Team Totals: Chiefs 27, Chargers 21.5
The final scores of the last four Chargers-Chiefs games are 30-27, 27-24, 34-28, and 30-24, suggesting that this week’s 48.5-point projected total is low. L.A. does travel to K.C. on a short week following last Monday night’s loss to Dallas, although Justin Herbert is on pace for career bests in completion rate (68.7%), passer rating (101.7), adjusted yards per attempt (7.8), and QBR (67.8) while ranking No. 2 among quarterbacks in per-game fantasy scoring. Yet Week 7 presents Herbert’s stiffest challenge to date; the Chiefs have yielded the NFL’s eighth-lowest completion rate (60.9%), fourth-fewest yards per pass attempt (5.3), and sixth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. I’m still betting the over and stapling in Herbert as a QB1 even while acknowledging that Kansas City’s defense is for real. … Back from his high ankle sprain in Week 6, Austin Ekeler handled 18 touches on a 68% snap rate against Dallas. No. 2 back Josh Kelley (2, 27%) was hardly relevant. Ekeler’s last four touches/yardage/TD counts versus K.C. are 21/100/1, 23/94/0, 16/82/1, and 17/107/1. Without any hesitation, he’s a dialed-in elite fantasy RB1.
Keenan Allen is on a fantasy league-winning track, on pace for career highs in catches (143) and yards per game (103.8). Allen’s 9.4 yards per target are his most since his rookie year in 2013. Perhaps Allen will fade some as his age-31 season progresses, but his route running pops off the screen.
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