Dallas @ San Francisco
Team Totals: 49ers 24.5, Cowboys 20.5
Despite averaging a league-best 4.8 red-zone possessions per game and a voluminous 70.3 plays (third most), the Cowboys rank 30th in TD Rate (37%) as a team that’s been largely carried by its defense. I’m strongly betting on those scoring-position metrics positively regressing to the mean. But I’m admittedly concerned that regression won’t happen this week. … Dak Prescott is fantasy’s QB25 despite an NFL-most 32 pass attempts inside opposing 20-yard lines. (He’s completed just 16 of those with three TDs.) Dak now draws a Niners defense that’s picked off more passes (five) than it’s allowed touchdowns (four). In last January’s playoff meeting with San Francisco, Prescott went 23 of 37 passing (62%) for 206 yards (5.6 YPA) and a 1:2 TD-to-INT ratio. I’m only considering Dak in two-QB/Superflex formats. … Tony Pollard has handled a league-high 27 carries inside the 20, including 16 inside the 10. Yet Pollard hasn’t hit paydirt since his two-score Week 1. Still averaging 93 total yards per game, Pollard is fantasy’s RB13 despite having left a 16-ounce ribeye’s worth of meat on the bone. This is a white-light buy-low opportunity on Pollard, and it could become even more so if he’s again held scoreless by San Francisco’s immovable front. It does help that the 49ers have surrendered the NFL’s fourth-most running back catches (25). It also helps that the Cowboys’ offensive line looks to be getting back near full strength after LT Tyron Smith (knee), RG Zack Martin (thigh), and C Tyler Biadasz (hamstring) all battled early-season injuries.
Prescott’s Weeks 1-4 target distribution: CeeDee Lamb 30; Jake Ferguson 25; Pollard and Michael Gallup 17; Brandin Cooks 15; Jalen Tolbert 9; Rico Dowdle, KaVontae Turpin, and Luke Schoonmaker 5; Deuce Vaughn 4.
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