Thursday Night Football
N.Y. Giants @ San Francisco
Team Totals: 49ers 28, Giants 17.5
Arguably the NFL’s worst quarterback through the first six quarters of 2023, Daniel Jones dialed it up in last week’s second half, torching Arizona for 17 of 21 passing (81%), 259 yards (12.3 YPA), two TDs, and an 8/58/1 rushing line in the final two quarters of New York’s 31-28 comeback win. I’m betting against Jones building on Week 2’s outburst, especially after San Francisco stymied Kenny Pickett for Week 1’s QB21 fantasy finish and Matthew Stafford for last week’s QB23 result. … Suffered late in last week’s fourth quarter, Saquon Barkley’s high ankle sprain leaves speedy journeyman Matt Breida, third-year plodder Gary Brightwell, and fifth-round rookie Eric Gray as New York’s top candidates for running back work. I’m fading all three here; the 49ers have held enemy backs to 23/89/1 rushing (3.9 YPC), while Giants LT Andrew Thomas (hamstring) and LG Ben Bredeson (concussion) appear doubtful for Thursday night. In 2022, no NFL defense surrendered fewer fantasy points to running backs than San Francisco’s.
Jones’ Weeks 1-2 target distribution: Darren Waller 13; Barkley and Darius Slayton 11; Parris Campbell 10; Isaiah Hodgins 8; Jalin Hyatt 3; Sterling Shepard and Lawrence Cager 2; Breida and Daniel Bellinger 1. … On top of targets, Waller leads the G-Men in catches (9), yards (112), and first-down conversions on Jones’ throws. Yet Waller’s TNF matchup is brutal; the 49ers held tight ends to last year’s sixth-fewest fantasy points, then all but erased Pat Freiermuth (1/3/1) in Week 1 and Tyler Higbee (3/12/0) in Week 2.
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