Evan Silva’s Matchups: Jaguars at Texans

Jacksonville @ Houston

Team Totals: Jaguars 25, Texans 23.5

Coming off his top box-score performance of the year, Trevor Lawrence encounters a Houston defense that coughed up Week 9’s overall QB8 score to Baker Mayfield, Week 10’s QB8 finish to Joe Burrow, and last week’s QB6 result to Kyler Murray. This week, the Texans are nursing injuries to star rookie EDGE Will Anderson (knee) and FS Jimmie Ward (hamstring) with MLB Denzel Perryman serving one more game on suspension. With Houston’s offense looking matchup-proof on the other side, this game offers legit shootout potential inside NRG Stadium’s dome. … Travis Etienne’s snaps and touches have been curbed by back-to-back blowout games — Week 10’s 34-3 loss to San Francisco followed by Week 11’s 34-14 destruction of Tennessee. As this game has a 1.5-point spread, expect Etienne to resume handling a full workload with his legs potentially freshened by the past two weeks’ limitations. Etienne averaged 22.3 touches over Jacksonville’s initial eight games. He totaled 138 yards in these clubs’ Week 3 date.

Lawrence’s 2023 target distribution: Christian Kirk 77; Evan Engram 72; Calvin Ridley 70; Etienne 40; Zay Jones 22. … Despite Jones’ Week 11 return, Kirk kept a stranglehold on his role in two-receiver sets and ran a team-high 31 pass routes against the Titans. The Texans gave up a combined 7/124/1 receiving line to Cardinals slot men Greg Dortch and Rondale Moore last Sunday, and that’s the same area of the field where Kirk roams.