Evan Silva’s Matchups: Jets at Colts

Thursday Night Football

N.Y. Jets @ Indianapolis

Team Totals: Colts 28, Jets 18

After engineering arguably 2021’s most stunning result in Week 8’s 34-31 upset of Cincinnati, Mike White will make his second straight start in place of Zach Wilson (PCL). White exploited the Bengals’ poor tackling via the short-area passing game; Indianapolis is a far superior tackling team in the middle of the field but plays a strict zone shell that invites throws into that area, where White delivers it best. I’m hardly expecting a repeat of White’s three-score, 405-yard performance but would feel fine starting White in two-QB leagues and on single-game DFS slates. Just don’t expect White’s success to last long term. The Jets were so unconfident in White behind Wilson that they traded for Joe Flacco last week, while NFL defenses will quickly expose White’s low-aDOT passing style by squatting on deeper routes and condensing Gang Green’s offense. Indy’s D/ST is fully playable; Jets LT Mekhi Becton (knee) remains without a return timetable, while fill-in LT George Fant injured his ankle in last week’s win. … The Jets finally have a fantasy-useful running back with Michael Carter dominating White’s high-percentage targets and banking consecutive touch counts of 19 and 24. Ty Johnson remains a factor only as a change-of-pace back, while hamstrung Tevin Coleman is a deservedly forgotten man, having lost his No. 3 role to La’Mical Perine. Over the past two weeks, White has targeted Carter a team-high 23 times and completed 18 of them for 162 yards. That amounts to 34.2 PPR points in receiving production alone.

White’s 2021 target distribution: Carter 23; Jamison Crowder 13; Johnson 11; Elijah Moore 10; Keelan Cole 6; Corey Davis and Denzel Mims 5; Ryan Griffin and Tyler Kroft 2. … Slot man Crowder was the Jets’ primary wide receiver beneficiary of White’s passing approach, registering a season-best 8/84/0 stat line against the Bengals. Colts slot CB Kenny Moore is a feisty foe, but Crowder looks like an 8-10 target candidate here. … After injuring his hip in practice, then sitting out versus Cincinnati, Davis seems unlikely to return on a short week. In his absence, OC Mike LaFleur resorted to a whopping six-man WRBC with Mims in the Davis role, Cole and Crowder rounding out most three-receiver sets, Moore as the No. 4, and Braxton Berrios and Jeff Smith mixing in just enough to cause projections confusion. Mims, Cole, and Moore warrant one-game DFS consideration. Quick-footed Moore looks like the best skill-set complement for White’s passing tendencies, although Mims’ big-play potential is enticing in single-game DFS tournaments, especially after Mims played 70% of the Jets’ Week 8 offensive snaps.

His back-breaking, fourth-quarter Week 8 decision-making aside, Carson Wentz enters TNF with multiple touchdown passes in five straight games, while Matt Ryan, Mac Jones, and Joe Burrow have turned in top-12 QB1 scores against the Jets all in a row. Indianapolis’ beastly offensive line is back to full strength, while Gang Green is surrendering 31.2 points per game over its last six and has no one in its secondary capable of matching up with white-hot Michael Pittman. Wentz is a strong QB2 play and justifiable low-end QB1/2 streamer. … Projected for friendly script as the offensive centerpiece for the 10-point, home-favorite Colts, Jonathan Taylor is again set up to eat versus Robert Saleh’s defense, which enemy backs have shredded for the NFL’s most fantasy points, including 165.0 total yards per game. Nyheim Hines is a one-game DFS-tournament punt only with tiny touch counts of 5, 9, 5, 4, 4 over the past five weeks.

Wentz’s 2021 target distribution: Pittman 63; Zach Pascal 41; Hines 29; Taylor and Mo Alie-Cox 25; Jack Doyle 19; Ashton Dulin 14; T.Y. Hilton 9; Kylen Granson 6. … On a hyper-efficient tear, Pittman has secured 22-of-29 targets from Wentz (76%) for 315 yards (10.9 YPT) and four TDs over the last month. I mentioned Pittman as a fringe WR1/2 last week and am valuing him similarly here. … The rest of Indy’s wide receivers are clear ancillary pieces who only warrant serious discussion in one-game DFS. Pascal is the best box-score bet since he plays the most consistent snaps and draws the most consistent targets. Hilton has been reduced to a part-time player based on his age and piling-up health issues and has pathetically gained 20 scoreless yards on nine targets from Wentz. On Tuesday, the Colts ruled out Hilton for Thursday night’s game due to a concussion. Now Indy’s No. 3 wideout, Dulin is a one-game DFS-tournament Hail Mary. … Still part of a three-way TEBC behind Doyle and ahead of Granson, Alie-Cox has settled in as a touchdown-or-bust dart who runs around half as many routes as a typical TE1.

Score Prediction: Colts 27, Jets 13