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Green Bay @ Tampa Bay
Team Totals: Packers 28.25, Bucs 27.25
Back from their Week 5 bye, the undefeated Packers lead the NFL in points per game (38) with Davante Adams (hamstring) rested and Aaron Rodgers playing out of his mind. A top-16 fantasy finisher in 4-of-4 starts and top-eight producer in 3-of-4, Rodgers catches his toughest to-date matchup at the Bucs, who held four of their initial five signal callers faced to outcomes of QB24 or worse. All told, quarterbacks are 127-of-179 passing for 1,327 yards (7.4 YPA) and a 7:6 TD-to-INT ratio against the Bucs. Based on Adams’ return and Rodgers’ Weeks 1-4 play, however, AR12 warrants confident QB1 treatment. Per Sports Info Solutions, Tampa Bay is playing zone coverage on 70% of its defensive snaps – a top-eight clip – while Rodgers is averaging a league-high 10.6 yards per pass attempt versus zone. Considering the Bucs’ run-defense stoutness, this appears to be a pass-funnel spot for Rodgers, who may go largely ignored in DFS tournaments but is always stack worthy with Adams. From a sports-betting standpoint, I’m going big on parlaying the Packers outright with the over on 55.5.
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