Green Bay @ Pittsburgh
Team Totals: Steelers 21, Packers 18
Pittsburgh’s D/ST is an elite play at home versus a Green Bay offense trotting out an injury-ruined line in front of Jordan Love, who’s cobbled together a 6:8 TD-to-INT ratio with 16 sacks taken and three fumbles over the Packers’ last six games. The Steelers are allowing the NFL’s third-lowest completion rate (59.6%) and rank No. 9 in sacks (26). … As promised by HC Matt LaFleur, the Packers unleashed finally-healthy Aaron Jones in Week 9’s win over the Rams. Jones banked or set season highs in carries (20), catches (4), and targets (5), even as Jones rested late in Green Bay’s 17-point win. Jones’ matchup is improved here by the Steelers’ year-ending loss of tackle-machine ILB Cole Holcomb (knee). On the season, Pittsburgh was already surrendering the NFL’s seventh-most fantasy points to running backs. Jones is a legit RB1 play. … A.J. Dillon isn’t usable so long as Jones is at full health (and wasn’t good when Jones was hurt).
Love’s 2023 target distribution: Romeo Doubs 54; Jayden Reed 40; Luke Musgrave 35; Christian Watson 26; Dontayvion Wicks 23; Jones 21; Dillon 14; Samori Toure 11. … Doubs hasn’t cleared 40 yards since Week 4 and has done so just twice all year. His playmaking ability already limited, Doubs is a low-floor, low-upside WR4/flex option at this point.
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