New England @ Miami
Team Totals: Dolphins 25, Patriots 21.5
The predictive utility of camp/preseason performance will be tested here after the Patriots’ offense struggled mightily all August. Their Matt Patricia–Joe Judge play-calling combination instills minimal confidence, while proven offensive playmakers are lacking on New England’s side. Dolphins DC Josh Boyer’s unit limited Mac Jones to yardage/touchdown totals of 281/1 and 261/1 in last year’s two meetings. … Rhamondre Stevenson looks like the slight favorite to lead Patriots running backs in Week 1 touches and snaps after earning persistent praise from Bill Belichick for his pass protection, receiving, and rushing acumen all summer. James White retired, Ty Montgomery (ankle) probably won’t play after being carted off in New England’s preseason finale, and Damien Harris’ ceiling simply isn’t as high as Stevenson’s. As the Patriots still boast a formidable offensive line and will likely maintain a ground-game commitment after last year finishing No. 8 in the NFL in rushing attempts (489), Harris is a viable if touchdown-dependent Week 1 flex option. Stevenson is an RB2/flex gamble with actual RB1 upside.
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