Evan Silva’s Matchups: Week 1

Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

Friday Night Football

Green Bay @ Philadelphia

Team Totals: Packers 23, Eagles 25.5

Corinthians Arena in São Paulo, Brazil hosts the first regular-season contest in South America and first Week 1 Friday night game (at 9:15 p.m. ET) since 1970.

Philadelphia’s upgraded offense under OC Kellen Moore will undoubtedly push the pace after last year’s Chargers led the league in combined play volume, allowing Jalen Hurts‘ managers to quickly forgive him for averaging 6.6 yards per attempt and 7.7 carries — a shell of his career averages (7.5 YPA, 9.8 carries) in three years starting — through multiple injuries from Week 11 on. Green Bay’s hyper-talented front seven is additionally a wash opposite Brandon Thorn’s No. 2 O-Line. Fortunately, new Packers DC Jeff Hafley leaned on single-high defense at Boston College and (unlike his predecessor) will be on a mission to stop the run. Hurts’ projection both through the air and up the gut unsurprisingly seat him top-two at his position. I bet him to rush for 2+ touchdowns on DraftKings (+800). … Saquon Barkley missed out on former DC Joe Barry’s annual tradition to be gashed from the ground, and this backfield has been targeted at the league’s sixth-lowest rate (15.2%) from Hurts. Fourth-round RB Will Shipley (5-foot-11/206) also blazed a 4.39 40-time (83rd percentile) and 38.5-inch vertical (89th) at his Pro Day then logged receiving reps over Barkley in camp. Shipley himself has little appeal outside of massive-field one-game DFS slates but admittedly limits Barkley’s Week 1 ceiling to low-end RB1 status. Kenneth Gainwell is expected to mix in during the 2-minute drill.

Green Bay’s secondary is in full-on flux following the splash signing of S Xavier McKinney (Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 coverage safety in 2023) and additions of No. 58 overall pick S Javon Bullard (5-foot-11/198) and Day 3 S Evan Williams (5-foot-11/200); No. 2 CB Eric Stokes has missed 22 games over the past two years, and All-Pro Jaire Alexander made nine appearances last season. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith most recently boxed out their teammates for a combined 51% target share but, assuming he’s installed in the CeeDee Lamb/Keenan Allen role, it’s Smith who pops here with a career 2.39 Yards Per Route Run from the middle of the field — fourth best from the slot since 2021. Fresh off career-high marks in targets (158) and catches (106), Brown’s opportunity perennially keeps him in top-12 territory. … Dallas Goedert registered his fewest yards (42.3) and points per game (7.8) since 2019 through multiple injuries but ran a route on 91.4% of dropbacks in 14 full starts (playoffs included). The Packers’ projected coverage shell (featuring an open pocket underneath and between the hashes) benefits Goedert more than any other Eagles skill player. Last year’s unit allowed seven receiving touchdowns (on only 72 catches) to enemy tight ends, boosting him as a volatile touchdown-or-bust option at low ownership in Showdown. … 2022 No. 16 overall pick Jahan Dotson was acquired on Aug. 22 for a third-round pick and two seventh-round picks in the 2025 Draft. Prior to his arrival, sixth-rounder Johnny Wilson (6-foot-6/231) was receiving first-team reps in camp; he led all Power Five receivers with 3.36 YPRR in 2022, per Pro Football Focus. Either will have to score a touchdown on limited snaps to return value.

Jordan Love’s average depth of target shrunk from 9.7 (third) through his first nine games to 8.2 (20th) from Week 11 on, allowing him to get rid of the ball and excel with a 6.8% touchdown rate and only three interceptions before being eliminated in the Divisional Round. The Eagles added No. 22 overall pick Quinyon Mitchell (6-foot/195), Bryce Huff, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson to improve on 2023’s second-most fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, but an overnight adjustment is unlikely. I trust Love (with his arsenal at full strength) in this spot. … The seas parted for Josh Jacobs in his cheesehead debut: A.J. Dillon was placed on season-ending injured reserve, rookie MarShawn Lloyd suffered a hamstring injury in late August, and RB2 Emanuel Wilson has been limited with a hip issue. Wilson was the only RB to force 10 missed tackles and record four 10-yard gains during the preseason. Leading the league in touches is a realistic outcome for Jacobs in Week 1.

Christian Watson did not miss a single practice from the start of OTAs through the end of training camp, providing a top-24 ceiling if he were glued to the field — a question only HC Matt LaFleur can answer. Given his wide range of outcomes, Watson should be viewed as a FLEX for Week 1. I’m more than willing to accept that volatility (and his 14 end-zone targets on only 53 opportunities) and let the chips fall where they may in large-field DFS tournaments. … Romeo Doubs led the Packers in targets (96) and routes run (509) in both the regular season and playoffs, recording 6/151/1 and 4/83/0 in two postseason starts. Playing in two-wide sets throughout camp, Doubs’ guaranteed ‘X’ role in this offense logically projects him to once again lead the roster in routes run on Friday night. … The WR27 in per-week points, slot WR Jayden Reed registered a team-high 2.05 YPRR and as many top-12 finishes (four) as Watson (two), Doubs (one), and Dontayvion Wicks (one) combined. His on-paper matchup remains the best of this group given the Eagles’ league-high points per game allowed in the slot, labeling him as an immediate WR3/FLEX. I expect Wicks to chip away at Watson’s usage in particular but ultimately finish fourth in on-field participation, as he did in the playoffs (29 snaps) with the entire lot healthy. He remains capable of torching any one-game slate: Look no further than his 1/65/1 line on one route (lol) from the preseason for evidence of that. … Backup TE Tucker Kraft missed a majority of camp with a torn pec muscle and was downgraded to limited with a back injury mid-week. It’s wheels up for Luke Musgrave, who lapped the team’s tight end room with 269 routes (87.9% participation) to Kraft’s 80 prior to the former’s abdominal injury in Week 11. Musgrave is a fringe TE1 in the season opener for his inevitable every-down usage. If Kraft were ruled out, note that 6-foot-5, 254-pound Ben Sims earned three red-zone targets when Musgrave was on injured reserve.

Score Prediction: Eagles 23, Packers 20

Pittsburgh @ Atlanta

Team Totals: Falcons 22.5, Steelers 19.5

The Steelers profile as one of football’s run-heaviest teams after first-year OC Arthur Smith’s past Tennessee and Atlanta offenses finished third, first, 29th, second, and 10th in rushing attempts per game. This is a #RevengeGame for Smith against the Falcons, who fired him after three seasons as coach. With Jaylen Warren coming off a multi-week hamstring strain, Najee Harris is positioned to vie for Week 1’s league lead in carries. I’m actively looking for ways to bet on Harris to lead the NFL in Opening Day rushing. If Warren can’t go, Smith confidante Cordarrelle Patterson would figure to fill in as Pittsburgh’s change-up back. Warren did make it sound early this week like he’s likelier than not to suit up for a rotational role. … HC Mike Tomlin named Russell Wilson the Steelers’ Week 1 starter after up-and-down preseasons from both Wilson and Justin Fields. I’m betting both make five-plus starts in 2024. 36 later this year, Wilson’s rushing production is in annual descent, while he’s sure to be on a short leash in an extreme low-volume passing attack.

Especially since the Steelers are semi-seriously trotting out Van Jefferson as their No. 2 receiver, Falcons HC Raheem Morris should feel incentivized to shadow George Pickens with A.J. Terrell. One of the NFL’s most physical corners, Terrell is capable of at very least frustrating the Steelers’ lone downfield weapon. … Jefferson, Calvin Austin, Roman Wilson (ankle), and Scotty Miller round out the NFL’s weakest WR corps. … Wide-bodied TE Darnell Washington poses a direct threat to Pat Freiermuth’s playing time in Smith’s run-devoted attack. Washington can block out the sun in the running game. Expect the Steelers to go heavy on multi-tight end sets that render Freiermuth worthless in fantasy.

Kirk Cousins, now 36, tore his Achilles last Oct. 29. After signing Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract with $90 million guaranteed, the Falcons shocked the world by drafting Michael Penix Jr. with April’s No. 8 overall pick. Especially against pressure-heavy Pittsburgh — last year’s Steelers ranked top 11 in both sacks (47) and QB hurry rate (23%) — Cousins profiles as an unexciting Week 1 box-score bet with minimal rushing capability. … Signs point to defensive-minded first-year Falcons HC Raheem Morris building his offense around Bijan Robinson in the Todd Gurley mold under fellow former Rams assistant Zac Robinson, now Atlanta’s OC. Tyler Allgeier remains one of fantasy’s top handcuff running backs, but Bijan profiles as a true bellcow behind Atlanta’s power-blocking offensive line.

Drake London looks poised for a significant third-year leap removed from ex-HC Arthur Smith’s run-obsessed offense quarterbacked the past two seasons by Desmond Ridder, Marcus Mariota, and Taylor Heinicke. Even against a stout Steelers secondary featuring physical No. 1 CB Joey Porter Jr. and speedy No. 2 Donte Jackson, I’m confidently firing up London as a borderline WR1/2 as a route runner who can win consistently on in-breakers, Cousins’ bread-and-butter throws. … My Week 1 interest in Darnell Mooney is minimal as a debatable talent entering a brand-new offense at risk of running empty wind sprints. … This is a #RevengeGame for former Steeler Ray-Ray McCloud. McCloud is a slot player; Pittsburgh’s projected starting slot corner is UDFA rookie Beanie Bishop. … Camp reports on Kyle Pitts were mixed in Atlanta’s new offense after Pitts failed to eclipse 40 receiving yards per game over the past two years. Pitts’ Week 1 matchup doesn’t stand out positively or negatively against a Pittsburgh middle-of-the-field defense already keyed by perennial All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and infused by $41 million ILB addition Patrick Queen.

Score Prediction: Steelers 17, Falcons 16

Arizona @ Buffalo