Evan Silva’s Matchups: Week 15

ATL @ TB | CLE @ CHI | BAL @ CIN | LAC @ KC | BUF @ NE | WAS @ NYG | LV @ PHI | NYJ @ JAX | ARI @ HOU | GB @ DEN | DET @ LAR | CAR @ NO | TEN @ SF | IND @ SEA | MIN @ DAL | MIA @ PIT

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

Team Totals: Bucs 24.5, Falcons 20

Kirk Cousins will make his fifth 2025 start after logging weekly fantasy finishes of QB23 (vs. MIA), QB14 (@ NO), QB21 (@ NYJ), and QB28 (vs. SEA) in his previous four. He will again be without No. 1 WR Drake London (knee). Even against the Bucs’ pass-funnel defense, I want no part of Cousins in two-QB leagues. … Bijan Robinson is averaging 22 touches for 120.2 yards over his last six games. I think Robinson can have a big day in the passing game; the Bucs have yielded an NFL-high 701 receiving yards to running backs. … Tyler Allgeier is worth a look on single-game DFS slates. Allgeier is averaging 10.4 touches over his last five games and has 18 carries inside the opposing 10-yard line this year. Robinson only has 12.

Cousins’ 2025 target distribution: Kyle Pitts 35; Bijan 19; Darnell Mooney 19; David Sills V 16; Dylan Drummond 11; Allgeier and KhaDarel Hodge 9. … Pitts has a massive 27% target share on Cousins’ 2025 throws. Pitts’ stat lines in Cousins’ previous four starts were 9/59/0, 2/25/0, 7/82/0, and 6/90/0. He’s a surefire TE1 whenever London is out and Cousins is in. Pitts’ matchup is boosted by Tampa Bay’s losses of every-down ILB SirVocea Dennis (hip) and SS Tykee Smith (neck/shoulder). … Enduring an incredibly frustrating campaign, Mooney’s stat lines in Cousins’ starts are 1/11/0, 3/74/1, 2/25/0, and 1/6/0. I can only stomach him in one-game DFS. … Sills ran ahead of Mooney in both snaps and routes run in last Sunday’s loss to Seattle and is playable in single-game DFS. Sills is a 29-year-old journeyman but is big (6-foot-3/211) and will play a ton. … Third-year UDFA Drummond was Atlanta’s No. 3 receiver last week. Drummond is slow (4.62) and not very big (6-foot/194).

Losers of three straight and descending into a tie with Carolina atop the NFC South, the Buccaneers are pulling out all the stops for Thursday night’s near must-win division game. All-World LT Tristan Wirfs (oblique) is back from a one-game absence. Out since Oct. 20 with a fractured clavicle, Mike Evans returns, allegedly to a limited role. Impressive as a 2024 third-round pick, Jalen McMillan (neck) is making his 2025 debut. This will be the first time since Week 7 of the 2024 season that Evans, McMillan, and Chris Godwin will all be in the lineup together. Baker Mayfield hasn’t been a fantasy asset in a while — he’s thrown for under 200 yards in four straight games — but I’m willing to bet on Baker here. The Falcons have coughed up at least 24 points in seven straight games and 27+ in five of those. … Although Bucky Irving and Rachaad White shared snaps down the middle in Week 14, Irving remained the Bucs’ lead back with 17 touches to White’s 12 and should push for 20+ here. (Sean Tucker only logged 12 snaps.) White played more than usual against the Saints because the Bucs were behind for most of the second half last week. This week, Tampa Bay is favored by 4.5 points at home. I think this can be an eruption spot for Bucky.

Todd Bowles stated this week that the plan is for Evans and McMillan to be limited in their returns. I’m not convinced Evans will be fully held back, however, if he shows well early in such a consequential game. Evans historically has Falcons top CB A.J. Terrell’s number, while Terrell is having a miserable year, ranking 71st among 109 qualified corners in PFF’s grades. I’m starting Evans where I have him in season-long leagues. … The Falcons have conceded the NFL’s 11th-most fantasy points to wide receivers, while Godwin and Emeka Egbuka are the two safest bets for snaps in Tampa’s wideout corps. Their touchdown odds lowered a bit with Evans back, Godwin and Egbuka check in as passable WR3/flex options. … I expect McMillan to finish fourth among Bucs WRs in playing time. I do think Tampa Bay could deploy more three- and four-receiver sets than usual with Cade Otton (knee) on the shelf. … Payne Durham and Devin Culp are next up on the Bucs’ wafer-thin tight end depth chart. I want no part of either outside of single-game DFS. I think Durham will play more.

Score Prediction: Bucs 30, Falcons 21