Evan Silva’s Matchups: Week 16

Thursday Night Football

New Orleans @ L.A. Rams

Team Totals: Rams 24, Saints 20

UPDATE: New Orleans Football’s Nick Underhill reported Tuesday that Chris Olave (ankle) is indeed expected to face the Rams. I remain lukewarm on Derek Carr‘s box-score prospects but am teeing up Olave with confidence. Olave had a touchdown and/or 100-plus yards in five straight games before missing Week 15. My guess is the Saints’ primary three-receiver set will involve Olave, Lynn Bowden, and Rashid Shaheed on Thursday night.

Derek Carr reached 20 fantasy points for the first time all year in Week 15’s win over the Giants but looks unlikely to have top WR Chris Olave (ankle) against a Rams pass defense yielding the NFL’s fourth-lowest completion rate (59.8%) and 12th-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.8). Carr also remains at risk of being pulled in scoring position for Taysom Hill, who isn’t listed on Week 16’s injury report. Carr is a low-ceiling QB2 play. … Averaging 18.9 touches for 95.8 yards and 0.8 TDs over New Orleans’ last four games, Alvin Kamara is a matchup-agnostic RB2 with RB1 upside against a Rams defense permitting the league’s third-fewest fantasy running back points. Kamara only out-snapped No. 2 RB Jamaal Williams 32 to 29 in last week’s victory, while Williams logged touch counts of 9 and 11 in the Saints’ last two games. Williams remains playable only on one-game DFS slates, but he is meaningfully cutting into Kamara’s weekly work.

In Olave’s Week 15 absence against the G-Men, Carr didn’t target a single Saints pass catcher more than five times. Lynn Bowden ran as New Orleans’ No. 1 wideout in terms of snaps with Rashid Shaheed right behind him and A.T. Perry and Keith Kirkwood sharing No. 3 duties. Foster Moreau worked as the Saints’ top tight end with Juwan Johnson equaling Moreau in routes run (13). Jimmy Graham hit paydirt for the third straight week yet hasn’t drawn more than two targets in a game all year. Taysom Hill logged a 21% playing-time clip and touched the ball only twice versus the Giants. The Saints’ role-playing characters are all one-game DFS tournament darts against an above-par Rams defense. My favorite among them is still Shaheed.

Even while he lost two fumbles in Week 15’s win over Washington, the Rams rode Kyren Williams to a career-high 32 touches, 155 yards, and a score, while No. 2 back Royce Freeman managed six touches. L.A. is getting back road-grating RT Rob Havenstein (groin) this week, improving Williams’ matchup as a home-favorite workhorse against the Saints. … With 18.5+ fantasy points in four straight starts, Tutu Atwell (concussion) and Tyler Higbee (stinger) back healthy, and Cooper Kupp finally looking good again, Matthew Stafford deserves low-end QB1 treatment. Stafford’s TD-to-INT ratio is 12:1 over the last month.

Puka Nacua hasn’t drawn fewer than seven targets in a game all season, and the Rams have fed Nacua five combined rushing attempts over his last three appearances. Nacua played 100% of L.A.’s offensive snaps in Week 15. He’s an every-week WR2 with WR1 upside. … Looking back to full health, Kupp has secured 22 of 26 targets (85%) for 265 yards (12.1 YPR) and three TDs over the last three weeks. He’s re-entered WR1 conversation. … Cleared from concussion protocol, Atwell figures to return to a near-even No. 3 WR rotation with Demarcus Robinson. They’re one-game DFS tournament prayers. … Higbee is fringe TE1/2 playable against a Saints defense permitting the NFL’s eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Higbee (63%) didn’t wholly dominate tight end snaps over Davis Allen (35%) in Week 15’s victory.

Score Prediction: Rams 23, Saints 17

Saturday Football